2023 NBA Finals Odds, Predictions & Betting Tips

NBA finals 2023 miami heat vs denver nuggets
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 31. May 2023.

The NBA Finals will tip-off on Thursday night when the No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets of the Western Conference host the No. 8 seed Miami Heat of the Eastern Conference in Game 1 at Ball Arena. The Nuggets have rolled to nine wins in their last ten matchups against the Heat and are huge betting favorites to win their first NBA title in franchise history.

Denver posted the best record in the Western Conference this season and is 12-3 in the playoffs, including a four-game sweep over the Los Angeles Lakers in the conference finals. 

Miami won a pair of play-in games to qualify for the postseason and have a 12-6 playoff mark. The Heat, seeking their fourth league title, rebounded from three straight losses against the Boston Celtics to win Game 7 and book a ticket to the finals.

The Heat has proven that it is a mistake to underestimate them and has used a team effort to advance to the league's biggest stage. But Denver has a massive advantage in overall talent and is almost unbeatable on their home court.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Odds

WynnBet sportsbook has the Nuggets (-405), a massive favorite to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy against the surprising Heat (+310). Denver swept both games opposite Miami during the regular season and is 6-0 in their last six meetings against the Heat.

The Nugget's odds of winning the league title opened at -275 after eliminating the Lakers. Still, Denver watched their odds drop game after game during the Celtics' three-game winning streak against Miami. However, the Nugget's odds of winning the NBA championships soared back up to -400 after the Heat ended Boston's season.

Miami opened the Eastern Conference Finals as +400 underdogs against the Celtics but notched their third upset after eliminating the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks in the first two rounds. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Predictions

The Nuggets boast the top-ranked offense in this year's playoffs and are adept at generating high-quality shots. Led by two-time NBA Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic, Denver is well-rested and in a prime spot to dispose of an underachieving Miami squad.

Jokic is the catalyst for the Nuggets' offense, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists in the postseason. The Western Conference finals MVP also has recorded an unprecedented eight triple-doubles in 15 games and is shooting 47 percent from behind the arc. But the Serbian standout also has a strong supporting cast.

Point guard Jamal Murray has dropped 27.7 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.5 boards in the playoffs, and the quartet of Michael Porter Jr. (14.6), Aaron Gordon (13.0), Bruce Brown (12.2), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (11.7) have combined for 50-plus points during the Nuggets postseason run.

Denver is undefeated at home during the playoffs with an 8-0 record. Murray is averaging a team-high 28.8 points at Ball Arena, while Jokic is tallying 27.1 points. The five-time NBA All-Star also registered a 23-point triple-double in two outings against the Heat in the regular season.

Jimmy Butler is the go-to guy for Miami and is averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in the postseason. Bam Adebayo, who will be tasked with slowing down Jokic on defense, is the second-leading scorer with 16.8 points and a team-best 9.2 rebounds. Caleb Martin (14.1), Gabe Vincent (13.1), Max Strus (10.3), Duncan Robinson (9.3), and Kyle Lowry (8.8) are also valuable contributors.

The Heat shot 34 percent in the regular season from three-point range to rank 27th. But Erik Spoelstra's squad connected on 45 percent of their 3-pointers against Milwaukee and 43 percent against Boston despite the absence of Tyler Herro. The long-distance sharpshooter broke his hand in the team's playoff opener but has a chance to return in Game 3 of the finals.

Miami's Cinderella postseason and Denver's lackluster defense might make this an intriguing series. However, no team has been able to slow down Jokic, and the Nuggets have a superstar sidekick in Murray. The Heat will need a Herculean effort from Butler and Adebayo to notch their fourth playoff upset, and I doubt that will happen. Denver is unbeatable at home and will claim their first NBA championship.

Prediction: Nuggets win the series, four games to one

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Tips

The most popular bet types for wagering on the Nuggets vs. Heat are:

The moneyline - a bet on who will win. Suppose you like Miami, a $100 wager at odds of +310 returns a profit of $310. However, if you favor Denver, a $100 bet at odds of -405 would net a total payout of $125.

Over/under - this is a wager on whether the total points will be fewer or greater than a number set by the sportsbook. Over 219.5 points look like a good bet, with odds offered at roughly -110, and a stake of $100 returns a profit of $90.91.

Point Spread - a bet on the margin of victory. If you like the Nuggets at -8.5, a $100 wager at odds of -105 would net a total payout of $95.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Schedule

Game 1: Miami at Denver, June 1

Game 2: Miami at Denver, June 4

Game 3: Denver at Miami, June 7

Game 4: Denver at Miami, June 9

Game 5: Miami at Denver, June 12 *

Game 6: Denver at Miami, June 15 *

Game 7: Miami at Denver, June 18 *

* = If necessary

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