Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Odds & Predictions

With the midterm elections around the corner, speculation on who will run for president in 2024 is abundant. In fact, betting odds on presidential candidates have been priced up in Europe since Biden beat Trump in 2020.

While political wagering is currently off the table, New York sports betting has recently been legalized. There are now 25 states that allow or are launching sports betting, and some think political events are not far behind.

From the favorites to the bizarre, candidates in the current odds range from seasoned politicians to cultural icons. As unlikely as some candidates may seem, recent years have taught us that anything really is possible in the bid to become President of the United States.

This is your complete guide to the 2024 US presidential elections to see where each potential candidate sits in the odds.

2024 US Presidential Election Favorites

Ron DeSantis

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +175
Fractional Odds: 7/4
Implied Probability: 36.36%

Currently Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis has emerged as a key player and current favorite for 2024. Affectionately known by supporters as a ‘competent Trump’, he has the potential to attract centrist voters to give him an edge in the election.

DeSantis would run for the Republican party and is likely to focus on issues he has tackled in Florida. He enacted the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law and is pushing for a ban on gender-affirming medical care.

His growing popularity is due to appearances on news, media, and Republican podcasts. DeSantis currently has a 36.36% chance of becoming the next POTUS according to the latest odds. This puts him ahead of both Trump and incumbent Biden, and makes him a serious contender.

Joe Biden

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +275
Fractional Odds: 11/4
Implied Probability: 26.67%

Joe Biden is the current US President, winning in 2020 against Donald Trump. From 2009 to 2017 Biden also served as Vice President under Obama. While his experience is undeniable, his age is a point of contention in the next election. Come November 2024, Biden will be 81 years old and, for some voters, too old for another 4 years in the White House.

If he runs, Biden will be on the Democratic Party ticket with current Vice President, Kamala Harris, as his running mate. His campaign is likely to center around lowering the cost of healthcare, clean energy, and increasing corporate taxes. His team is urging him to announce his campaign early to stop speculation on other Democratic party candidates and to get ahead of the Republicans.

As it stands, Biden has a 26.67% chance of winning the next election.

Donald Trump

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +700
Fractional Odds: 7/1
Implied Probability: 12.5%

Despite failing to be re-elected in 2020 and his supporters rioting in Washington DC, Donald Trump is currently one of the betting favorites for the 2024 election.

He has been funding campaigns for Republican candidates and will want to run on their ticket. As he only served one term as president, Trump is able to run. However, he is a divisive character for the party, and it remains to be seen if he can gain the backing he needs to run again.

Trump is sure to campaign using his infamous tagline, ‘Make America Great Again’. He is beginning to position himself as the man to save America in recent speeches. His campaign would focus on undocumented migrants, law enforcement, and homelessness.

With a 22.22% probability of being elected, he's currently third n the betting odds. This makes him less likely to win than fellow Republican Ron DeSantis, and current President Joe Biden, who beat him by a landslide of popular votes just 2 years ago.

Kamala Harris

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +2000
Fractional Odds: 20/1
Implied Probability: 4.76%

Kamala Harris is Biden’s right-hand woman and current Vice President. When elected in 2020, she became the first female, first black person, and first Asian person to hold the position. While it is strongly believed that she will run as second on Biden’s ticket, it is possible she could vie for the presidency if he steps down in 2024.

Harris would run for the Democratic party but could struggle to unify support given her more liberal reputation. Her campaign would likely focus on giving migrants opportunities for US citizenship and stricter gun control laws.

Her odds give her a 4.76% chance of election.

Gavin Newsom

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +2500
Fractional Odds: 25/1
Implied Probability: 3.85%

Gavin Newsom is the current Californian Governor and is almost guaranteed re-election in November. In 2024, he would run for the Democratic party if he can unify support for his candidacy.

Newsom has publicly called for a more aggressive Democratic agenda in response to the rights rollback in Republican states. He directly challenged Ron DeSantis on Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ law and is possibly the only Democratic candidate that is raring for an intense debate with the Republican party.

As a younger, progressive voice, Newsom would play up these values in a presidential campaign. With a 3.85% probability in the odds, Newsom is pretty much neck-and-neck with VP Kamala Harris.

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Dark Horses’

Nikki Haley

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +3300
Fractional Odds: 33/1
Implied Probability: 2.94%

Nikki Haley is the former South Carolina governor and served as US ambassador to the United Nations under Donald Trump. She was the first female governor in South Carolina.

She is a strong figure in the Republican party and would attract conservative voters with pro-life values and support for enforced immigration policy. She could gain support from centrists as well with her stance on LGBT+ issues.

However, she is steadfast in her support of former president Trump. While she is open to running in 2024, she has said she will support a third Trump campaign. Haley will not race if Trump announced his candidacy.

With a 2.94% probability in the betting odds, she is the favorite 'dark horse'.

Mike Pence

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +4000
Fractional Odds: 40/1
Implied Probability: 2.44%

Mike Pence is a familiar face and served as Vice President under Donald Trump. He distanced himself from his running mate over the Capitol Insurrection. It is guaranteed that he will not be on Trump’s ticket a third time. Donald Trump has confirmed as much and Pence seems ready to run for president in 2024.

Pence has visited Iowa and New Hampshire recently, which are early-voting states in the Republican presidential primary. He could capture support from traditional conservatives, paving the way for Republicans to move on from Trump’s administration.

Mike Pence has a 2.44% chance in the odds to become the next president.

Pete Buttigieg

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +4000
Fractional Odds: 40/1
Implied Probability: 2.44%

Pete Buttigieg is the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and current Secretary of Transportation for Joe Biden.

Part of the Democratic party, Buttigieg planned to run in 2020 but placed fifth in the primaries after dropping out of the race and pledging support for Biden.

He could be a popular candidate with his track record. Buttigieg is a former naval officer that served in Afghanistan. If he were elected in 2024 he would be the youngest elected US president. He would also be the first openly gay president, which is quite a landmark in US politics.

Buttigieg sits level with Pence with a 2.44% chance in the 2024 elections.

Mike Pompeo

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +5000
Fractional Odds: 50/1
Implied Probability: 1.96%

Mike Pompeo is the first person to have held positions as Director of the CIA and US Secretary of State. He served both offices under Donald Trump. It is no surprise that if he were to run in the 2024 US presidential election, it would be on the Republican party’s ticket.

His previous views on the main issues are likely to be his focus during a campaign. Pompeo is against combatting climate change, is anti-choice, and has opposed same-sex marriage.

With current odds, Pompeo stands a 1.96% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.

Michelle Obama

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +5000
Fractional Odds: 50/1
Implied Probability: 1.96%

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is undeniably popular. Her autobiography, ‘Becoming’, was picked up by streaming giant Netflix and she can count Beyoncé among her friends.

In the unlikely event that she would run, it would be for the Democratic party. Given her husband’s successes, she would likely focus on accessible healthcare, gun control, and improving the quality of life for black Americans.

While she has yet to enter politics herself, she has not completely ruled it out. Her family values and natural likeability are sure to be popular with voters, giving her a chance at becoming the first female US president.

Her odds give her a 1.96% chance in 2024.

Hilary Clinton

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +6600
Fractional Odds: 66/1
Implied Probability: 1.49%

Just when you think Hilary Clinton is out of the running, she pops up in the odds. The former First Lady ran in 2008 but lost the nomination to Obama. She ran again in 2016, getting the nomination but losing to Donald Trump.

While she has said she will not run again, we can see a third campaign emerging. Having recently criticized Biden’s ‘open borders’, Clinton is positioning herself as a centrist candidate. If Biden does not run, Clinton may seem a safe option for the Democratic party compared to the extremely liberal candidates.

With her odds giving her a 1.49% chance, the 2024 US presidential election may well be Trump vs Clinton again.

Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +6600
Fractional Odds: 66/1
Implied Probability: 1.49%

Professional wrestler turned Hollywood actor, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson has been flirting with the idea of running for president. After a 2021 poll indicated that 46% of the US would consider voting for him, he responded, ‘If this is what the people want, then I will do that’.

It is not clear which party he would run for. He endorsed Biden in the 2020 elections, so he could potentially run in the Democratic primaries. Johnson would bring charisma to the race and focus on unifying the increasingly divisive political landscape.

With 1.49% probability in the odds, The Rock currently has a greater chance than some established politicians.

Elizabeth Warren

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +6600
Fractional Odds: 66/1
Implied Probability: 1.49%

Elizabeth Warren campaigned for the presidency in 2020. She came third in the primaries and then backed Joe Biden.

Even though she ran for the Democratic party, her progressive values were a step too far for voters 2 years ago. She suggested canceling student loans and combatting climate change. Two years later and Biden has taken a leaf from her book, partially forgiving student loans and boosting himself in the polls.

In recent interviews, Warren has said she will not run in 2024. She remains certain that Biden will run and is focusing her efforts on getting re-elected to the Senate.

Despite this, she still has a 1.49% probability of election according to the odds.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +8000
Fractional Odds: 80/1
Implied Probability: 1.23%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest female ever to be elected to US Congress at 29. While her age means she will not be able to run in 2024, her ability to engage young voters could help her in the future.

She is part of the Democratic party. As an internet-savvy politician and young voice, she is considered a legitimate threat to Republicans.

She is likely to support Biden for re-election. If he does not run, she would probably back Kamala Harris. Despite not being able to run, Ocasio-Cortez still has a 1.23% chance in the betting odds.

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Outsiders’

Bernie Sanders

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +10000
Fractional Odds: 100/1
Implied Probability: 0.99%

Bernie Sanders is officially undecided on whether to run in the 2024 US presidential election. Given Joe Biden is receiving criticism over his age, Sanders does not stand much of a chance. He is a year older than incumbent Biden, which may deter voters.

Sanders ran in 2016 and 2020, losing in the primaries both times. While he previously ran on the Democratic ticket, some believe his next run could be as an independent candidate.

With betting odds giving him a 0.99% likelihood of being elected, a third campaign may not be on the cards for Bernie Sanders.

Kristi Noem

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +10000
Fractional Odds: 100/1
Implied Probability: 0.99%

Governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem, has not ruled out the idea of running for president in 2024.

However, as a member of the Republican party, she will not oppose Trump if he decides to run. Noem has praised Trump’s handling of the COVID pandemic and is potentially an option for his running mate.

If she were to campaign, Noem would position herself as a spokesperson on the cultural wars. She has proposed bans on transgender women taking part in female sports. She also supports banning the teaching of critical race theory.

In the betting odds, she has a 0.99% probability of being elected as president in 2024.

Amy Klobuchar

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +10000
Fractional Odds: 100/1
Implied Probability: 0.99%

Amy Klobuchar is no stranger to the presidential elections. She made a bid in 2020, placing sixth in the Democratic primaries. At that point, she dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

She currently represents Minnesota in the US Senate and was the first woman elected to this role. In many ways, she is similar to President Biden. She is also a traditional and pragmatic politician and would likely run her campaign as such.

Klobuchar is expected to back Biden in 2024, but she still has a 0.99% probability in the bettings odds.

Candace Owens

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +10000
Fractional Odds: 100/1
Implied Probability: 0.99%

Candace Owens is a conservative influencer and talk show host. She turns 35 in 2024, meaning she could run for the presidency.

Owens is a liberal turned Republican and has criticized the Democratic party while approving of Donald Trump’s presidency.

She has previously criticized the Black Lives Matter movement and the Me Too movement. She opposes abortion rights, citing abortion as a tool for reducing the number of black babies.

It is unlikely she will run, as she is a great advocate for Trump. She has a 0.99% chance of being elected.

Eric Adams

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Eric Adams is the Mayor of New York City. He campaigned for reducing crime in New York, an issue particularly close to home as a former NYPD officer.

If he decided to run, Adams would be a center-left candidate for the Democratic party. Whether he is able to run may well be determined in the next year, as he is facing reduced popularity as crime rates in New York City have risen.

Adams is thought to be focussing solely on his current role. This has not stopped speculation about him stepping forward if Biden does not try for re-election.

With current odds, Adams has a 0.5% chance of being elected in 2024.

Tom Cotton

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Tom Cotton is the US Senator from Arkansas. He is a US army veteran and remains one of the youngest members of the Senate.

It is unlikely he will run for the Republican party in 2024, as he has a smaller platform than rival candidates Trump and DeSantis. But what he lacks in national recognition, he is certainly making up for in proactive campaigning. He has made several trips to Iowa and New Hampshire since 2020 and both are early states in the nomination contests.

Cotton has not yet announced his intentions, stating that a final decision will be made after the midterm elections. He has said that Trump's running will not deter him from a campaign.

At 0.5% probability in the betting odds, he is not considered a front-runner for the Republicans.

J.B. Pritzker

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Governor of Illinois, J.B. Pritzker is gaining attention on the national stage. The billionaire businessman called for tighter gun control laws in the face of a tragic mass shooting.

Pritzker may well be a sensible choice for the Democrats. He has been praised for his management of the pandemic and has come forward in support of abortion rights. While his views are progressive, he could still capture centrist support and has proven himself to be a man of action.

Pritzker has a 0.5% chance of being elected in 2024, according to betting odds.

Stephen A. Smith

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Stephen A. Smith is a sports TV personality, radio host, and journalist. While he is on record saying he has no desire to step into politics, this has not stopped speculation about a 2024 campaign.

He has also said that he has not completely ruled out the idea of running for president one day. In fact, if he felt he had a good chance of winning, he would strongly consider launching a campaign.

As a black American, he would focus on issues in the black community. He also considers himself as broader in appeal, stating that ‘everybody in America would matter’. It is not clear which party he would run for.

With a 0.5% chance in the odds, 2024 is unlikely to be his political debut.

Liz Cheney

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Liz Cheney is a controversial figure in the Republican party. She voted in favor of impeaching Donald Trump over the Capitol attack, which led to working closely with the Democratic party.

Her focus certainly seems to be on winning Democratic voters, but the party does not see the impeachment as a shift toward more liberal policy.

It is almost certain she will run if Trump enters the race, as she is on record saying that the most important thing is to stop him from getting back into the White House.

With odds giving her a 0.5% chance of being elected, it is unlikely that she will gain traction campaigning for 2024.

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Long Shots’

Jeff Bezos

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Jeff Bezos is known for his role as CEO of Amazon. He has stepped down from the position to focus on other interests, which has some believing he is eyeing US politics.

While economically there is no doubt Bezos is a Republican, he would most likely run on a Democratic ticket. He is publicly opposed to Trump and holds the belief that Trump is eroding democracy in America. However, Bezos would likely receive heat from voters who can cite his conduct as head of Amazon against him.

In 2017 Bezos said he had no intention to run for president. For now, it seems his other priorities are focused on the moon. With a 0.5% probability in the odds, he is unlikely to become elected in 2024.

Oscar De La Hoya

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Oscar De La Hoya is a boxing promoter and former professional boxer. Given the rise in celebrities taking an interest in politics, it is no surprise his name has popped up in the odds.

In 2020, De La Hoya claimed that he would run against Donald Trump. This did not happen, but following Kanye West’s candidacy, De La Hoya responded ‘why not me’.

More recently he has ruled out a presidential run, instead floating the idea of running for Mayor in Las Vegas. With a 0.5% chance of election, De La Hoya is not likely to change his mind for 2024.

Tom Brady

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Tom Brady has seemingly done his best to stay away from politics since a Make America Great Again cap was photographed on his locker in 2015. The American football quarterback is notoriously friends with Donald Trump, sparking rumors about whether he could run in the future.

Having recently stepped away from Tampa Bay Buccaneers for personal reasons, some are wondering if this could be to campaign. His odds have certainly seen an upwards shift, which is unusual given he has not formally announced his intentions for the presidency.

With a 0.5% chance of winning in 2024, it remains to be seen whether Brady will run.

Beyoncé

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +20000
Fractional Odds: 200/1
Implied Probability: 0.5%

Having become more engaged in politics since Obama’s election, Beyoncé is a voice for black American women. She also threw her weight behind Hilary Clinton in 2016, but this failed to stop Trump from being elected.

Beyoncé is a powerhouse and has already made history in the music industry, becoming the first black woman to headline Coachella, the first solo artist to have all 7 studio albums debut at number one, and the most nominated female artist in Grammy history. She would likely run on a Democratic ticket.

However, the star is notoriously private, so a political career may be off the table. She still has a 0.7% chance of election in 2024.

Mark Zuckerberg

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +25000
Fractional Odds: 250/1
Implied Probability: 0.4%

Mark Zuckerberg is known worldwide as the head of the social media platform Facebook.

Zuckerberg has said he is neither Republican nor Democrat, meaning if he ran it would most likely be as an independent candidate. Rumors that he would run were inflated in 2017 when he pledged to meet someone from every US state.

Zuckerberg has previously worked with Barack Obama and is in Trump’s line of fire for changing how Facebook distributes political information.

Odds show Zuckerberg has only a 0.4% chance of being elected, so 2024 will probably not be his year.

Vince McMahon

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +25000
Fractional Odds: 250/1
Implied Probability: 0.4%

Possibly the least likely candidate on the list, Vince McMahon is the former chairman of WWE.

His wife, Linda McMahon, was appointed administrator of the Small Business Administration from 2017 to 2019 by former president Donald Trump. This means if he were to run, it would likely be on the Republican ticket.

McMahon has made no announcements or hinted at the possibility of becoming US president. He has a 0.4% chance of being elected in 2024 according to the current betting odds.

Kanye West

Odds to Win 2024 Presidential Election: +25000
Fractional Odds: 250/1
Implied Probability: 0.4%

Kanye West is a cultural icon, and though this may not always be positive, it is not hard for him to get publicity.

In 2020, West ran as an independent candidate under the Birthday Party. Whether he does so again or creates a different independent party remains to be seen.

While his share of the vote was small, it was still higher than expected. As the 2020 results came in, he tweeted ‘Kanye 2024’. However, he has planned albums before that have yet to see a release date, so this is not a guarantee that he will run again.

West currently has a 0.4% chance of becoming America’s second black president in 2024.