Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Odds & Predictions

With the primary elections around the corner, speculation on who will run for president in 2024 is abundant. In fact, betting odds on presidential candidates have been priced up in Europe since Biden beat Trump in 2020.

While political wagering is currently off the table, New York sports betting has been legal since January 2022. There are now 25 states that allow or are launching sports betting, and some think political events are not far behind.

From the favorites to the bizarre, candidates in the current odds range from seasoned politicians to cultural icons. As unlikely as some candidates may seem, recent years have taught us that anything really is possible in the bid to become President of the United States.

This is your complete guide to the 2024 US presidential elections to see where each potential candidate sits in the odds.

Odds to Win the 2024 US Presidential Election

✅Indicates the candidate has confirmed they are running.

2024 US Presidential Election Favourites

In this section, we explore the profiles of the individuals who are currently leading the odds to win the 2024 US Presidential election. 

These frontrunners have not only garnered media attention but are also the most likely contenders to secure their respective party's nomination.

1. Donald Trump (Republican) - Chance To Win: 42.11%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Despite recent legal issues, his failure to be re-elected in 2020, and his supporters rioting in Washington DC, Donald Trump is currently one of the betting favorites for the 2024 election.

He has been funding campaigns for Republican candidates and will want to run on their ticket. As he only served one term as president, Trump is able to run. 

Trump is sure to campaign using his infamous tagline, ‘Make America Great Again’. He is beginning to position himself as the man to save America in recent speeches. His campaign would focus on undocumented migrants, law enforcement, and homelessness.

Can he overtake President Joe Biden, who beat him by a landslide of popular votes just 3 years ago?

2. Joe Biden (Democratic) - Chance To Win: 30.77%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Joe Biden is the current US President, winning in 2020 against Donald Trump. From 2009 to 2017 Biden also served as Vice President under Obama. While his experience is undeniable, his age is a point of contention in the next election. Come November 2024, Biden will be 81 years old and, for some voters, too old for another 4 years in the White House.

If he runs, Biden will be on the Democratic Party ticket with current Vice President, Kamala Harris, as his running mate. His campaign is likely to center around lowering the cost of healthcare, clean energy, and increasing corporate taxes. 

Biden's team is urged him to announce his campaign early to stop speculation on other Democratic party candidates and to get ahead of the Republicans.

3. Gavin Newsom (Democratic) - Chance To Win: 14.29%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Gavin Newsom, California's Governor, is a potential 2024 Democratic presidential candidate known for his progressive views. 

Starting as San Francisco's youngest mayor in 2004, he has long advocated for progressive causes like same-sex marriage, climate change, and healthcare. He's willing to challenge Republican stances, including Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' law. 

If he gains enough support, Newsom aims to seek the Democratic nomination in 2024, positioning himself as a younger, progressive contender in the race.

4. Nikki Haley (Republican) - Chance to Win: 10%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Nikki Haley is the former South Carolina governor and served as US ambassador to the United Nations under Donald Trump. She was the first female governor in South Carolina.

She is a strong figure in the Republican party and would attract conservative voters with pro-life values and support for enforced immigration policy. She could gain support from centrists as well with her stance on LGBT+ issues.

However, she is steadfast in her support of former president Trump. While she is open to running in 2024, she has said she will support a third Trump campaign. Haley will not race now that Trump has announced his candidacy.

5. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent) - Chance to Win: 5.26%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has frequently been in the spotlight due to his lineage and potential political aspirations. He first contemplated a political career in 2000, eyeing the U.S. Senate seat once held by his father. 

He was a frontrunner for New York Attorney General in 2005 but withdrew to avoid a race against his then brother-in-law, Andrew Cuomo. In 2008, he passed on a Senate appointment to focus on family. 

Fast forward to 2023, the political landscape shifted significantly. In March, Kennedy, addressing an audience in New Hampshire, hinted at his presidential ambitions, noting his wife's support as a significant milestone. By April, he officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2024 elections. With this decision, Kennedy became the fifth member of his illustrious family to aim for the U.S. presidency.

6. Michelle Obama (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 3.85%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Former First Lady Michelle Obama is undeniably popular. Her autobiography, ‘Becoming’, was picked up by streaming giant Netflix and she can count Beyoncé among her friends.

In the unlikely event that she would run, it would be for the Democratic party. Given her husband’s successes, she would likely focus on accessible healthcare, gun control, and improving the quality of life for black Americans.

While she has yet to enter politics herself, she has not completely ruled it out. Her family values and natural likeability are sure to be popular with voters, giving her a chance at becoming the first female US president.

7. Ron DeSantis (Republican) - Chance to Win: 3.45%

Image: Gage Skidmore

American politician and attorney Ron DeSantis rose to prominence as a Republican, first serving in the U.S. House for Florida's 6th district from 2012 to 2018 before becoming Florida's Governor in 2018. 

Notably praised for his COVID-19 management, DeSantis gained national attention between 2020 and 2023. 

Initially dismissing 2024 presidential speculation, he later fueled it with his memoir, "The Courage To Be Free." On May 24, 2023, he officially announced his presidential campaign, aiming to spotlight issues like the 'Don't Say Gay' law and a proposed ban on gender-affirming medical care.

8. Kamala Harris (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 2.44%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Kamala Harris, who made history in 2020 by becoming the first female, Black, and Asian-American Vice President, is a notable player in the run-up to the 2024 elections.

Serving as President Biden's right-hand, there's substantial speculation around her political trajectory. If it is the case that Biden is unable to continue his campaign, Harris might step into the spotlight as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee. 

Her track record showcases a progressive approach, particularly on contentious topics like immigration, where she champions pathways to citizenship, and gun control, advocating for stringent reforms. 

However, her decidedly liberal positions may pose challenges in rallying complete support from the Democratic Party. With 2024 on the horizon, Harris's potential move to seek the presidency could represent another monumental step in her groundbreaking political journey.

9. Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican) - Chance to Win: 1.96%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy, born in 1985, is an American entrepreneur and founder of Roivant Sciences. In February 2023, he entered the 2024 presidential race as a Republican. 

Ramaswamy focuses on societal issues, identifying a national identity crisis marked by "new secular religions" like "COVID-ism," "climate-ism," and "gender ideology." He has also criticised ESG initiatives. 

His success in biotech and finance has built him a considerable reputation and a net worth exceeding $950 million as of August 2023.

10. Elizabeth Warren (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 1.23%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Elizabeth Warren campaigned for the presidency in 2020. She came third in the primaries and then backed Joe Biden.

Even though she ran for the Democratic party, her progressive values were a step too far for voters 2 years ago. She suggested canceling student loans and combating climate change. Two years later and Biden has taken a leaf from her book, partially forgiving student loans and boosting himself in the polls.

In recent interviews, Warren has said she will not run in 2024. She remains certain that Biden will run and is focusing her efforts on getting re-elected to the Senate.

2024 Presidential Election Nominees

Before a candidate can be elected, they need to first secure the backing of their party. The nominated candidate from each party will then battle it out to become the 47th US President come election time. 

Let's look at the odds on the favorites to win the nomination for each party.

Democratic Nominees

Republican Nominees

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Dark Horses’

This segment focuses on the 'dark horses' in the electoral race - candidates who may not be leading in the polls but have the potential to surprise us.

✅Indicates the candidate has confirmed they are running.

❌Indicates the candidate has dropped out.

Chris Christie (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.99%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Chris Christie, born on September 6, 1962, in Newark, New Jersey, distinguished himself as the 55th Governor of New Jersey from 2010 to 2018. Acclaimed for his straight-talking style and leadership during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Christie became a notable figure in Republican politics.

In June 2023, he announced his 2024 presidential bid, openly critiquing former President Trump and the Republican National Committee's loyalty pledge, which he ultimately signed. 

On foreign policy, Christie advocates for increased military aid to Ukraine, highlighted by his August 2023 visit to meet President Zelenskyy and tour Bucha, a city affected by a Russian-led massacre. His trip underscored his commitment to Ukraine and his focus on international relations.

Liz Cheney (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.99%

Image: US House Office of Photography

Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, has long been a central figure in the Republican Party. Known for her strong principles, Cheney's recent actions indicate a potential shift in the GOP's direction and her aspirations within it.

In May 2021, she hinted at a possible 2024 presidential run, a speculation intensified by her subsequent formation of the leadership PAC, "The Great Task," in August 2022. 

While Cheney's political credentials include her tenure in the House of Representatives and her board position at the Gerald R. Ford Foundation, her most noteworthy stance has been her open criticism of Donald Trump. 

Following her primary defeat, Cheney declared she'd depart the Republican Party if Trump received the 2024 nomination. Her PAC also ran an ad in 2023 discouraging Republican voters from supporting Trump. 

Cheney's potential in the 2024 presidential race, whether as a candidate or influencer, is undeniably significant.

Cornel West (Green Party) - Chance to Win: 0.79%

Image: Gage Skidmore

American philosopher Cornel West has been a political commentator for years, endorsing Bernie Sanders in 2015 and Green Party's Jill Stein in 2016. 

In 2023, he made headlines by announcing a run for U.S. President, initially with the People's Party before switching to the Green Party. 

His campaign focuses on critiquing both domestic and international policies, including Biden's 1994 crime bill and NATO's role in global issues. With considerable public support and endorsements like Jill Stein, West's 2024 bid aims to reshape U.S. political dialogues.

Hillary Clinton (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.79%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Just when you think Hillary Clinton is out of the running, she pops up in the odds. The former First Lady ran in 2008 but lost the nomination to Obama. She ran again in 2016, getting the nomination but losing to Donald Trump.

While she has said she will not run again, we can see a third campaign emerging. Having recently criticized Biden’s ‘open borders’, Clinton is positioning herself as a centrist candidate. If Biden drops out, Clinton may seem a safe option for the Democratic party compared to the extremely liberal candidates.

Marianne Williamson (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

American author, spiritual leader, and political activist Williamson first ventured into politics in 2014, running for California's 33rd congressional district, finishing fourth. 

In 2019, she sought the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election and later endorsed Bernie Sanders. 

Undeterred, she's campaigning for the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries with a progressive platform including raising the federal minimum wage, creating a U.S. Department of Peace, reparations for racial injustices, and strong climate change countermeasures.

Doug Burgum (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: North Dakota National Guard

Since becoming North Dakota's Governor in December 2016, Doug Burgum has championed economic diversification, mental health, and addiction solutions. Born in 1956, he initially thrived as a tech entrepreneur before entering politics. 

In 2023, Burgum signaled his interest in the 2024 United States presidential election. He officially announced his campaign in June, followed by an active trail in Iowa. 

Notably, Burgum invested heavily in campaign advertisements, outspending other presidential candidates. His unique campaign tactics, like offering $20 gift cards for donations to qualify for the Republican primary debate, garnered attention and stirred debate.

Asa Hutchinson (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Asa Hutchinson served as the 46th governor of Arkansas from 2015 to 2023. In May 2022, Hutchinson revealed considerations for a 2024 presidential run, undeterred by Trump's potential candidacy. While he recognized some of Trump's contributions, he advocated for a new direction for the country.

Announcing his candidacy for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries in April 2023, Hutchinson took a distinct stance as a critic of Trump. He urged the former president to withdraw after his indictment by a New York grand jury and later criticized fellow GOP contenders who promised a pardon for Trump. 

Hutchinson opposed the RNC's debate condition of a loyalty pledge to support the eventual nominee, voicing he wouldn't back Trump if convicted. Although he eventually signed the pledge, during one debate, he was one of the two candidates who refrained from committing to support Trump in the event of a conviction.

Perry Johnson (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Perry Johnson, originally a quality assurance expert and president of Perry Johnson International Holdings, has recently become a notable political figure.

He first gained public attention in 2021, running for the Republican nomination for Michigan's governorship with a headline-grabbing $1.5 million Super Bowl ad. However, his campaign faltered due to insufficient valid signatures, leading to his disqualification despite a $7 million personal investment. 

In March 2023, Johnson announced his 2024 presidential bid, adopting the campaign theme "Two Cents to Save America." His unconventional policy proposals, such as abolishing the FBI, set him apart within the Republican party.

This candidate dropped out of the running on October 20, 2023.

Tim Scott (Republican) - Chance to Win 0.66%

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Born in 1965, Tim Scott is the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina and a member of the Republican Party. 

He made history as the first African American Senator from South Carolina and the first from the Southern U.S. since Reconstruction. 

In early 2023, he began a "listening tour" starting in Charleston and spanning key events in Iowa, hinting at a presidential run. By May, Scott confirmed his intentions, first by forming an exploratory committee and then officially announcing his presidential candidacy later that month.

This candidate dropped out of the running November 12, 2023.

Mike Pence (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Michael Vadon

Mike Pence, former Vice President to Donald Trump, played a notable role in the Republican Party, often navigating Trump's contentious decisions. 

By 2021, he was viewed as a potential 2024 presidential contender, though his chances were uncertain if Trump re-entered the race. 

In 2023, Pence publicly criticized Trump's misinformation about the VP's election powers and his rhetoric linked to the January 6 Capitol attack, hinting at a 2024 campaign. He confirmed these speculations with a presidential announcement on June 5, 2023.

This candidate dropped out of the running on October 28, 2023.

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Outsiders’

In this segment, we turn our attention to the ‘Outsiders’ of the 2024 US Presidential race. These people occupy a middle ground. Though not at the forefront of the political stage, their campaigns carry an element of unpredictability that could shake up the race.

✅Indicates the candidate has confirmed they are running.

❌Indicates the candidate has dropped out.

Larry Elder (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Larry Elder, a renowned American conservative commentator, has worn many hats as a radio host, author, attorney, and politician. 

In 2021, Elder ran in the California gubernatorial recall election, focusing on state regulations, homelessness, and school choice. Aiming to replace incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom, he quickly became one of the most prominent Republican candidates in the race.

By April 2023, Elder announced his presidential candidacy for the 2024 U.S. election. He's been vocal about crime issues, critiqued portrayals of black males, and proposed the "Blind Spot" initiative to curb financial benefits for relatives of top officials. Additionally, Elder advocates for tougher state-level stances on illegal immigration.

The candidate dropped out of the running on October 26, 2023.

Ryan Binkley (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Ryan Binkley, a Texan pastor and CEO, announced his Republican presidential candidacy in 2024, citing a divine calling for change.

His campaign focuses on balancing the federal budget, reducing healthcare costs, bipartisan immigration reform, and revitalising education through community engagement. 

Positioning himself as a "uniter," Binkley has invested significantly in Iowa, using grassroots campaigning and media outreach, including a notable $250,000 in radio ads.

Will Hurd (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Argonne National Laboratory

Former CIA officer and Texas Congressman Will Hurd announced his 2024 Republican presidential bid in June 2023. 

Known for his cybersecurity acumen and bipartisanship, Hurd has openly criticized former President Donald Trump in his campaign. He refused to sign the Republican National Committee's pledge to back the eventual nominee, barring him from primary debates. 

On foreign policy, he advocates for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. His forthright stance led to a public feud with Trump and exclusion from the first Republican debate in August 2023, underlining his role as a unique voice in the party.

Pete Buttigieg (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Pete Buttigieg is the former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and current Secretary of Transportation in Joe Biden’s administration.

Part of the Democratic party, Buttigieg launched a bid for the Democratic nomination in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Though he didn't secure the nomination, his campaign showcased his potential as a future leader within the party.

He could be a popular candidate with his track record, and is seen by many as a rising star for the Democrats. Buttigieg is a former naval officer who served in Afghanistan, and if he were elected in 2024 he would be the youngest elected US president. He would also be the first openly gay president, which is quite a landmark in US politics.

Amy Klobuchar (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Amy Klobuchar is no stranger to the presidential elections. She made a bid in 2020, placing sixth in the Democratic primaries. At that point, she dropped out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

She currently represents Minnesota in the US Senate and was the first woman elected to this role. In many ways, she is similar to President Biden, who she is expected to back in 2024. She is also a traditional and pragmatic politician and would likely run her campaign as such.

Bernie Sanders (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Bernie Sanders ran in 2016 and 2020, losing in the primaries both times. While he previously ran on the Democratic ticket, some believe his next run could be as an independent candidate. Given Joe Biden is receiving criticism over his age, Sanders does not stand much of a chance. He is a year older than incumbent Biden, which may deter voters.

In April 2023, Sanders declared that he was not going to run in the 2024 elections and instead was backing Biden for another term. However, while a third campaign may not be on the cards for Bernie Sanders, he still remains an unlikely contender in the eyes of some bookies.

Mike Pompeo (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Mike Pompeo, known for his roles as CIA Director and US Secretary of State, is a conservative figure in American politics.

Serving in the House of Representatives from Kansas before his Trump administration appointments, he shaped foreign policy, taking hard lines on Iran and China. 

A loyal Trump supporter, his political stances are conservative, opposing climate change measures, abortion rights, and same-sex marriage. While he considered a 2024 presidential run as a Republican, he ultimately decided it wasn't the right time.

Eric Adams (Democratic Party) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Krystalb97

Eric Adams is the Mayor of New York City. He campaigned for reducing crime in New York, an issue particularly close to home as a former NYPD officer.

If he decided to run, Adams would be a center-left candidate for the Democratic party. However for the time being it looks like Adams is focussing solely on his current role. 

This has not stopped speculation about him stepping forward after it was reported that he was considering a run, and was dropped from a Biden 2024 campaign advisory board.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Ståle Grut / NRKbeta

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest female ever to be elected to US Congress at 29. While her age means she will only qualify to be president after the 2024 running has started, her ability to engage young voters could help her in the future.

As an internet-savvy politician and young voice, Ocasio-Cortez is considered a legitimate threat to Republicans.

While she has not declared herself a runner and is currently backing Biden for reelection, some bookies still think there’s a small chance Ocasio-Cortez could end up in the white house this time round.

Kristi Noem (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Gage Skidmore

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, in office since January 2019, is a possible 2024 presidential candidate.

Starting her political career in South Dakota's House of Representatives in 2006, she later served in the U.S. Congress from 2010, advocating for fiscal conservatism and traditional values. She played a key role in passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. 

Though she endorses Trump and praises his COVID-19 response, she might emerge as his potential running mate. If she runs, Noem is likely to focus on cultural issues, including banning transgender women from female sports and opposing the teaching of critical race theory.

J.B. Pritzker (Democratic) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: World Economic Forum / Benedikt von Loebell

Governor of Illinois, J.B. Pritzker is gaining attention on the national stage. The billionaire businessman called for tighter gun control laws in the face of a tragic mass shooting.

Pritzker could well be a sensible choice for the Democrats. He has been praised for his management of the pandemic and has come forward in support of abortion rights. While his views are progressive, he could still capture centrist support and has proven himself to be a man of action.

With no formal declaration of his intent to run, Pritzker has a very slim chance of being elected in 2024, according to betting odds.

Tom Cotton (Republican) - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Gage Skidmore

American politician, attorney, and military veteran Tom Cotton has been the U.S. Senator from Arkansas since 2015. Originally elected to the House in 2012, he moved to the Senate in 2015 after defeating Democrat Mark Pryor.

Known for his conservative views, Cotton supports increased defense spending and opposes the Iran nuclear deal, abortion rights, and lenient immigration policies. 

Though he's made exploratory trips to early nomination states like Iowa and New Hampshire, reports suggest he's decided against a 2024 presidential run. While lacking the national profile of rivals like Trump and DeSantis, his proactive campaigning keeps him in the conversation.

2024 US Presidential Election ‘Long Shots’

In this concluding section, we introduce you to the 'long shots'. While the likelihood of these individuals securing a nomination, let alone winning the election, is extremely slim, some bookmakers still list them as a possibility. 

Their chances may be minute, but their inclusion in the political dialogue can nonetheless be entertaining.

Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Eva Rinaldi

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson has hinted at a presidential run, especially after a 2021 poll showed 46% of Americans might vote for him.

While he endorsed Biden in 2020, it's unclear which party he'd represent. Despite his charisma and aim to unify a divided political scene, current odds suggest it's unlikely he'll run or win in 2024.

Tom Brady - Chance to Win: 0.66%

Image: Brook Ward

Tom Brady has seemingly done his best to stay away from politics since a "Make America Great Again" cap was photographed on his locker in 2015. The American football quarterback is notoriously friends with Donald Trump, sparking rumors about whether he could run in the future.

Having recently stepped away from Tampa Bay Buccaneers for personal reasons, some are wondering if this could be to campaign. While still long, his odds have certainly seen an upwards shift, which is unusual given he has not formally announced his intentions for the presidency.

Kanye West - Chance to Win: 0.5%

Image: Kim Erlandsen, NRK P3

Kanye West, a cultural icon, ran as an independent candidate in the 2020 U.S. presidential election under the "Birthday Party." Despite a modest vote share, it exceeded expectations.

After the 2020 election, he tweeted "Kanye 2024," hinting at another run, although his track record of delayed album releases casts doubt on this commitment.

Candace Owens - Chance to Win: 0.4%

Image: Gage Skidmore

Candace Owens, a conservative influencer eligible for the 2024 presidential race, was once a liberal but now supports Trump and criticizes Democratic policies.

Known for her opposition to Black Lives Matter and abortion rights, she is unlikely to run in 2024 but hasn't been ruled out by bookmakers.

Beyoncé - Chance to Win: 0.4%

Image: Raph_PH

Beyoncé, a political voice and advocate for black American women, supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. A trailblazer in the music industry, she would likely run as a Democrat if she entered politics.

However, given her private nature, a political career seems unlikely.

Stephen A. Smith - Chance to Win: 0.4%

Image: Senator Chris Coons

Stephen A. Smith is a sports TV personality, radio host, and journalist. While he is on record saying he has no desire to step into politics, this has not stopped speculation about a 2024 campaign.

He has also said that he has not completely ruled out the idea of running for president one day. In fact, if he felt he had a good chance of winning, he would strongly consider launching a campaign.

As a black American, he would focus on issues in the black community. He also considers himself as broader in appeal, stating that ‘everybody in America would matter’. It is not clear which party he would run for.