Expert picks and odds for the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills. Our best bets include Fleetwood, Morikawa, and Koepka. Plus get tips on betting strategy and finding the top golf sportsbooks.
Shinnecock Hills sits on Long Island, roughly 90 miles from Manhattan, and it has a long history of producing shocking leaderboards, unexpected champions, and outstanding betting value. Favorites routinely crumble on this course, while journeymen professionals find form they haven't shown in years.
If you know how to read a US Open, and specifically how to read Shinnecock, the 2026 edition presents one of the best betting opportunities on the entire sporting calendar.
| Pick | Odds | Why It's Our Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood (EW) | +1800 | Shinnecock specialist, runner-up here in 2018 with a final-round 63, links-style game tailor-made for this course |
| Collin Morikawa (EW) | +4500 | Two-time major winner drifting to a price that seriously undervalues his elite iron play |
| Brooks Koepka (EW) | +4500 | Won this tournament on this golf course in 2018; major-week pedigree is undeniable |
| Justin Rose or Hideki Matsuyama (EW) | +5000 / +7000 | Longshot chaos hedge, both are proven major winners with the ball-striking to thrive at Shinnecock |
Odds correct at time of writing. All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Gambling for 21+ only. Please bet responsibly.
Before we get into picks, it's worth explaining why the US Open is a distinctive betting proposition compared to other majors.
The United States Golf Association (USGA) deliberately sets up US Open venues to be the hardest test in golf. Expect:
| Expert Insight: The average winning score at the US Open is often only a few under par, or even over par in brutal conditions. At Shinnecock in 2018, Brooks Koepka won at +1 for the tournament. This is not like Torrey Pines or Augusta; this is survival golf. |
| Pro Tip: Don't just back the headline favorites because they're household names. The US Open rewards a more nuanced, analytical approach. And that's exactly what's helped to guide our picks. |
Shinnecock Hills has hosted the US Open in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004, and 2018. Each edition has been memorable for different reasons — and often for the difficulty of the conditions.
| Characteristic | Detail |
|---|---|
| Location | Southampton, NY (Long Island) |
| Par | 70 |
| Yardage | Approximately 7,200 yards (USGA adjusts) |
| Terrain | Links-style, exposed, windswept |
| Greens | Bentgrass, extremely fast |
| Rough | Deep fescue, extremely penal |
Shinnecock is a links-influenced parkland layout. The wind off Peconic Bay and the surrounding Atlantic coastline plays a big role here and is often a decisive factor. That means players who have more experience on exposed, windswept courses (links golf in Europe, coastal American venues) tend to adapt better.
Looking back at previous winners on this course reveals a pattern of patience, ball-striking, and mental toughness. Flamboyant risk-takers who rely on pure power tend to falter at Shinnecock, while methodical, elite iron players tend to succeed.
As early markets open for the 2026 US Open, the usual suspects head the betting. Here's a representative view of the market prior to the opening day (odds from FanDuel Sportsbook).
| US Open Outright Winner | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +550 | World No. 1, perennial favorite |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 | Multiple major winner, strong iron play |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | US Open winner 2021, grinds well |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 | Olympic champion, clutch performer |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 | Links pedigree, runner-up at Shinnecock 2018 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2000 | 2022 US Open champion, elite precision |
| Cameron Young | +2000 | Long Island native, bombed-up ball-striker |
| Ludvig Åberg | +2500 | Elite ball-striker, improving rapidly |
| Russell Henley | +3300 | Accurate, underrated grinder |
| Sam Burns | +4000 | Underrated ball-striker |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +4000 | US Open winner 2020, power vs. accuracy question |
| Collin Morikawa | +4500 | Precision iron play suits Shinnecock |
| Brooks Koepka | +4500 | Won here in 2018, thrives at US Opens |
| Justin Rose | +5000 | Won US Open 2013, Shinnecock specialist |
| Viktor Hovland | +5500 | Powerful and accurate |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +7000 | Iron play, proven major contender |
Ready to place your bets? Find the latest US Open odds at FanDuel sportsbook, and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins when you wager $5.
Here are our picks for the 2026 US Open, along with the reasons why we think each one makes sense.
Why we like him:
Tommy Fleetwood is one of the most criminally underrated players in world golf when it comes to major betting markets, and Shinnecock Hills is arguably his best course on the planet. He finished runner-up here in 2018, firing a final-round 63 that stands as one of the great rounds in US Open history.
Fleetwood's links-style game features low ball flight, elite iron play, and comfort in wind, which is tailor-made for Shinnecock. He has an Open Championship pedigree and thrives on exposed, demanding courses where patience and ball-striking trump raw power.
At +1800 on FanDuel, he's shorter than we'd ideally like for an each-way selection, but his Shinnecock pedigree justifies the price. If you can find +2000 or bigger on any of the top golf sportsbooks in NY, that's outstanding value for a player who nearly won this event on this golf course.
Our verdict: ⭐⭐ Highest-conviction pick - Each-Way at +1800 or bigger.
Why we like him:
Collin Morikawa is, statistically, one of the elite iron players in world golf. His strokes-gained approach numbers are consistently among the best on any tour, and at a US Open venue where approach play is the single most decisive skill set, that matters enormously.
Morikawa has demonstrated he knows how to win majors under pressure. He has two (The Open Championship 2021, PGA Championship 2020). He's not a flashy gambler; he's a precise, methodical player who hits fairways, finds greens, and trusts his putter when it counts. That is exactly the profile that wins at Shinnecock.
At +4500, Morikawa is looking to be priced at odds that seriously undervalue his major-winning pedigree and skill profile. Two major titles, elite ball-striking, and a course that rewards precision over power; at this price, the each-way value is significant. A top-5 finish or better feels like a realistic outcome, and at 1/5 odds for a top-8 place, those returns are generous.
Our verdict: ⭐⭐ Best Value Pick - Each-Way at +4500 or bigger.
Why we like him:
You don't ignore a player who has won the US Open twice (2017, 2018) and finished in the top 5 on multiple other occasions at this specific event. Koepka's record in majors is extraordinary, and his ability to raise his game for the biggest occasions is documented and undeniable.
Yes, his form between majors has been inconsistent. Yes, he has had injury concerns. But Koepka has repeatedly shown that major weeks bring out something different in him. He prepares specifically for the biggest tournaments, peaks for them, and delivers.
At Shinnecock specifically, Koepka dominated in 2018. He knows the layout, the wind patterns, and the mindset required. At +4500, a player who has already won this tournament on this golf course is available at a price that would have seemed absurd a few years ago. His drift in the market reflects his LIV Golf schedule and reduced visibility, not a decline in his major-week ceiling.
Our verdict: ⭐ Each-Way at +4500 or bigger, provided his health situation is confirmed closer to the event.
Why we like them:
At a US Open, including a longshot each-way bet in your portfolio makes excellent strategic sense. The brutal conditions create chaos; big-name favorites routinely miss the cut or shoot themselves out of contention. Odds of +5000 and beyond for technically sound major winners represent the kind of value that can transform a betting slip.
Justin Rose (+5000) is a romantic choice, but not an irrational one. He won the 2013 US Open, he knows how to navigate tight, difficult courses, and he has a particular emotional connection to Shinnecock. If he's healthy and competitive heading into 2026, a small each-way stake at +5000 is defensible.
Hideki Matsuyama (+7000) is perhaps the more pragmatic selection. His iron play is world-class, he won the Masters in 2021, demonstrating he can carry the pressure of a major, and his game profile fits Shinnecock well. At +7000, the each-way returns for a top-8 place are substantial, and Matsuyama's record in majors warrants that kind of speculative play.
Our verdict: Small each-way stake on either. Rose at +5000 and/or Matsuyama at +7000, but treat these as value additions to your portfolio rather than primary bets.
When you're making your betting picks for the 2026 US Open, we recommend a portfolio approach rather than a single large bet. Here's a simple framework:
| Stake Size | Selection | Approx. Odds | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larger stake | Tommy Fleetwood (EW) | +2500 | Best value, Shinnecock specialist |
| Medium stake | Collin Morikawa (EW) | +1800 | Elite ball-striker, two major wins |
| Medium stake | Brooks Koepka (EW) | +2200 | Won here in 2018, major specialist |
| Small stake | Longshot (EW) | +5000+ | Portfolio insurance, chaos hedge |
This approach means:
Sportsbooks vary in their each-way terms for golf majors. Typically you'll see:
FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings all offer competitive each-way terms on golf majors. Shop for the best terms before placing your each-way bets because this can meaningfully impact your returns.
Beyond the outright winner market, NY bettors have access to a range of compelling supplementary markets on the 2026 US Open.
For more conservative bettors, Top 10 and Top 20 finish markets offer better strike rates with lower odds. A player like Xander Schauffele (+1600 outright) for a top-10 finish may represent solid value given his consistency in majors.
High variance, high reward. At US Opens, early scoring can be surprisingly good before the USGA tightens conditions mid-week. Bold, aggressive players who start fast can cover the number before the course starts biting.
For first-round leader bets, the value lies away from the short-priced favourites.
A straightforward market, but one that rewards sharp thinking at Shinnecock. The cut has historically been severe here, with the USGA making no concessions to reputation. A few names worth considering:
New York is one of the biggest legal sports betting markets in the United States, and state residents can access a full range of licensed sportsbooks for the 2026 US Open.
FanDuel NY - Consistently competitive golf odds, excellent each-way terms on majors, and a clean interface for following live in-play updates.
BetMGM NY - Strong golf market depth, competitive outright odds, great live betting options, and a generous welcome offer for new customers.
Caesars NY - Solid golf coverage, competitive lines, and regular boosted odds promotions on major events.
DraftKings NY - Excellent parlay builder tools, good player prop markets, and competitive major golf odds.
| Pro Tip: Major golf events typically trigger boosted odds, profit boosts, and free bet offers that can significantly enhance your value. New customers should take advantage of welcome bonuses. See our rundown of the Best New York Sportsbook Promos for the latest offers. |
Golf betting, like all sports betting, should be approached responsibly. Set a budget for the US Open week, stick to it, and treat your bets as entertainment with the possibility of a return, not as a guaranteed income strategy. If you have concerns about your gambling habits, contact the Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
| Pick | Market | Odds (FanDuel NY) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | Outright EW | +1800 | ⭐⭐ Highest conviction |
| Collin Morikawa | Outright EW | +4500 | ⭐⭐ Best value |
| Brooks Koepka | Outright EW | +4500 | ⭐ Medium |
| Longshot (Rose/Matsuyama) | Outright EW | +5000 / +7000 | ⭐ Speculative |
The 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills is shaping up to be one of the great sporting events of next year, and for NY bettors, having a home-state major on Long Island makes it even more special. Remember to shop around for the best odds and each-way terms across NY sportsbooks, and back your selections with discipline.
Good luck, and enjoy the golf!
All odds in this article are sourced from FanDuel NY's early market and are subject to change. Verify current pricing on your chosen licensed NY sportsbook before placing any bets. Gambling should be fun, so bet responsibly.
The 2026 US Open is scheduled for June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York.
Licensed NY sportsbooks including FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings all offer US Open golf betting markets. Check our NY sportsbook reviews for the latest odds and promotions.
An each-way bet is two bets in one: one on the player to win outright, and one on the player to finish in a specified top number of places (typically top 5 or top 8 at golf majors). Each-way betting is the standard approach for betting on golf at non-favorite prices.
Brooks Koepka (2018), Retief Goosen (2004), Corey Pavin (1995), and Ray Floyd (1986) are the US Open champions at Shinnecock Hills.
Elite ball-strikers, accurate iron players, and mentally strong, patient golfers tend to perform best at Shinnecock. The course's links-style layout and exposure to wind favor players with all-round games over pure power hitters.
