NFL Week 10 – Predictions & Best Bets

By this point in the football season, every team is showing who it really is. The elite are building playoff resumes, while the middle tier fights to stay relevant before Thanksgiving. 

For bettors, that means a bit more predictability. We’re getting a good idea about each team’s offensive identity, red-zone form, and line play. And those now outweigh any preseason narratives that might have influenced wagering decisions.

The Week 10 slate delivers balance and there should be plenty to enjoy. There’s an AFC West opener at altitude, an international clash in Berlin, and a primetime finale under the Lambeau lights. Plus weather, travel fatigue, and midseason wear all add layers of value if you know where to look.

Here are the details of all the NFL Week 10 matchups, including our picks for the best bets to place:

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

Thursday, November 6, 8:15 PM ET (Prime Video)

Thursday night opens Week 10 with a familiar AFC West grind. Both sides are built around cautious, possession-based football, and that makes a shootout unlikely.

Denver’s improvement on defense has been the story of its season: they’re far more disciplined against the run and have tightened coverage at home. The Broncos’ offensive approach is conservative, aiming to limit mistakes rather than chase big plays, which naturally shortens games.

The Raiders face similar issues moving the ball consistently. They’ve leaned heavily on their ground game to stay on schedule, but extended drives have been rare. Against a defense comfortable sitting in two-high looks and forcing checkdowns, it’s hard to see Las Vegas stringing together touchdowns.

Between Denver’s altitude, the short week, and two offenses unlikely to take risks, this matchup has all the ingredients for a total that stays in the low 40s or below.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (Berlin, Germany)

Sunday, November 9, 9:30 AM ET (NFL Network)

The NFL returns to Berlin, Germany with an intriguing matchup between two run-centric teams. European games often start slow, with travel fatigue and early kickoffs disrupting rhythm. So the team that sustains drives usually wins.

Indianapolis has been more consistent in that department, using quick passes and a dependable run game to control tempo. Their offense doesn’t rely on explosive plays, which makes them less vulnerable to momentum swings that can come in these neutral-site matchups.

Atlanta’s offense, by contrast, remains erratic. When the run game clicks, they look physical and efficient; when it doesn’t, they stall fast. The lack of passing consistency has hurt them in close games, and long possessions abroad could expose that imbalance.

Expect the Colts to dominate time of possession, grind out field position, and avoid the kind of mistakes that flip field position in low-scoring overseas contests. Laying a field goal feels justified.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

The Patriots have quietly become a tougher out over the last few weeks. Drake Maye has settled into the system, leaning on quick reads and a short passing rhythm that’s cut down on turnovers.

That kind of efficiency tends to travel well, especially against a Buccaneers defense that still gives up too many chunk plays on early downs.

Tampa Bay’s offense remains volatile. When the scripted plays hit, they move the ball, but when defenses adjust, the production dries up. The Patriots’ defense is built to exploit that inconsistency, mixing disguised coverage with selective pressure.

If New England can dictate pace through possession, which is certainly something they’ve done better recently, they’ll keep this game within a field goal or even pull off the outright win. 

Getting +2.5 on a team trending upward, with the better defensive floor, looks like solid value.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

This has the makings of a defensive slugfest from the opening kick. Both teams rely heavily on their fronts to dictate games: Cleveland through constant pressure and New York through disciplined coverage and containment. 

Each defense has also shown that they’re capable when it comes to limiting explosive plays, which makes sustained scoring drives difficult to come by.

But the Browns still lean on the run to protect their inconsistent passing game, while the Jets’ offense has been streaky at best, often relying on short fields created by turnovers. When both sides prioritize avoiding mistakes over chasing points, totals rarely climb.

In a matchup where punts, field goals, and time of possession will matter more than touchdowns, the under 40.5 feels like the smart pick. Unless one defense creates instant points, this game could easily settle in the mid-30s.

Whether you’re going with our pick or making your own, new customers can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets at BetMGM sportsbook using our exclusive promo code NYSB1500.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Every meeting between these teams has shootout potential, and Week 10 should be no different. Both offenses rank near the top of the league in yards per play and red-zone efficiency, and both quarterbacks thrive in warm weather and clean pocket conditions.

The Bills have opened up their passing game again, leaning on tempo and spreading the field to exploit mismatches. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins remain built for speed, and few teams can keep up once Miami finds its rhythm. Buffalo’s secondary has been banged up, and Miami’s vertical threats are well-positioned to take advantage.

With perfect weather forecast in South Florida and two teams that can score from anywhere on the field, this one sets up for fireworks. Even if one side jumps out early, both offenses are built to respond quickly. 

In a matchup that almost guarantees sustained scoring, the over 50.5 is our pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

With one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud, the Texans have quietly become one of the AFC’s most reliable home teams.

Their passing attack operates with pace and precision, and they’ve consistently jumped out to early leads thanks to scripted drives that test defensive communication. That’s a problem for a Jaguars defense that has looked disjointed against well-prepared offenses, particularly on the road.

Jacksonville’s offense, meanwhile, hasn’t matched its potential. The run game has been streaky, and protection has wavered against aggressive fronts. Those are two two weaknesses Houston can exploit. If the Jaguars fall behind early, they’re forced into a one-dimensional approach, which plays directly into the Texans’ defensive strength.

Houston tends to control tempo and field position in its own stadium, and its ability to finish drives should separate these teams by more than a score. With their efficiency advantage and a stable defensive core, the Texans -6 looks like good value.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

This matchup feels like a classic divisional grinder. Both teams play at a deliberate pace, emphasizing short, controlled drives rather than explosive plays. The Panthers have been far better defensively at home, forcing opponents into long possessions and limiting deep passing success.

The Saints, meanwhile, continue to move the ball between the 20s but struggle to convert. Their red-zone efficiency remains among the worst in the league, and long field-goal attempts have become the norm. 

When two teams that already play slowly meet in a controlled environment, totals under 40 become highly attractive. Expect long drives, conservative play-calling, and plenty of punting. That points to it being the kind of game where 20 points might be enough to win. 

With neither offense showing the creativity to finish possessions, the Under 39.5 stands out as one of the stronger total plays of the week.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

November football in Chicago usually favors the tougher, more balanced team. And right now, that’s the Bears. Their commitment to the run game has paid off, helping them control tempo and shorten games. 

That approach also takes pressure off their passing attack and allows them to lean into the conditions at Soldier Field, where wind and cold often limit vertical passing.

The Giants, on the other hand, remain unpredictable offensively. Protection has been inconsistent, and their inability to sustain drives on the road makes them vulnerable to early deficits. Without a strong running game to steady the offense, long third downs have become a recurring problem.

Chicago’s defense should have the advantage at the line of scrimmage, and their offense is built to play from ahead, not chase the game. So expect the Bears to grind out possessions, wear down the Giants’ front, and cover comfortably at home.

Get an extra boost at Caesars sportsbook if this is one you’re betting on when you use the promo code SAFEBETS20X. That will give you double winnings on your next 20 wagers when you bet $1.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Baltimore’s ability to control tempo and keep its defense fresh gives it a significant edge in a game that’s likely to be decided by execution, not flash.

Lamar Jackson’s efficiency as a passer makes Baltimore dangerous in any environment, and the Ravens are built for road games like this where they’ll need to be physical, patient, and adaptable. Their run-first approach should travel well, especially against a Vikings defense that struggles to get off the field on third down. 

The Vikings can be dangerous when their offense finds rhythm, but they remain streaky. Sustaining drives has been a challenge, and their defense has shown cracks against teams that can stay on schedule. If Minnesota falls behind early and has to lean on the passing game, that plays directly into Baltimore’s defensive strength.

In a matchup between one team that dictates pace and another that depends on momentum, the Ravens’ consistency and toughness make them a strong underdog pick. The +2 offers value in what should be a tight, field-goal kind of game. 

The Ravens are averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and own one of the league’s best red-zone rates. The Vikings defense remains vulnerable against dual-threat quarterbacks, particularly in play-action situations. So take the points with the more physical team.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, November 9, 4:05 PM ET (CBS)

After a dominating performance against Washington in NFL week 9, Seattle continues to be one of the league's toughest home environments, and that edge feels decisive here. 

The Seahawks’ defense has rounded into form, holding opponents under 20 points per game at Lumen Field while generating consistent pressure up front. Their secondary has also improved in communication, closing off the easy underneath routes that Arizona’s offense depends on.

The Cardinals have shown they can play hard, but they still lack consistency. They’ve struggled to protect the quarterback and finish drives against structured defenses, and Seattle fits that mold perfectly. When forced into passing situations, Arizona often stalls, leading to field goals instead of touchdowns.

The Seahawks should be able to control the pace on both sides of the ball: running efficiently, mixing in quick passes, and leaning on crowd noise to keep Arizona off-balance. 

With a clear advantage in execution, environment, and late-game stability, the Seahawks -7.5 looks like one of the stronger favorites on the board. 

Plus if you place a winning bet at FanDuel sportsbook, you can get $300 in bonus bets when you bet $5 to make it even sweeter.

Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders

Sunday, November 9, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)

The Lions continue to thrive by winning at the line of scrimmage. Their offensive line ranks among the league’s best, giving them the flexibility to stay patient and methodical even against strong fronts. 

That steadiness has made them one of the more reliable road teams in the NFC because they don’t beat themselves, and they rarely get forced off-script.

The Commanders, by contrast, remain unpredictable. They’ve shown flashes of competence but continue to give up big plays through the air, and their pass rush has been inconsistent week to week. When Washington can’t generate pressure, its secondary tends to unravel, especially against play-action and motion-heavy offenses. 

That's the kind of offence they're find at Detroit, and coming off the back of recent defeats to Kansas in week 8 and Seattle last week, we can't see the Commanders being able to turn things around here.

Expect the Lions to control tempo, establish the run early, and use that to open up space for efficient intermediate passing. If they play cleanly, and they often do, then they should pull away late. That makes the Lions -3 feel like a sensible pick for a team with clear advantages in the trenches and red-zone efficiency.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, November 9, 4:25 PM ET (FOX)

Whenever the 49ers and Rams meet, execution and scheme take center stage. And that often leads to points. Both offenses are well-designed to exploit space and mismatches, and both coaching staffs excel at setting up high-percentage plays that turn into explosive gains.

San Francisco continues to thrive when it can get the ball to its playmakers in motion, while Los Angeles leans on timing routes and yards after the catch. The result is a matchup where sustained drives and red-zone opportunities are likely on both sides.

Defensively, neither California team has been as dominant so far this year as in past seasons. San Francisco’s secondary has shown occasional lapses against crossing routes, and the Rams’ young defense remains prone to giving up chunk plays.

With two quarterbacks who take care of the football, and offensive systems built to generate rhythm, this game feels like one where the total pushes well past the mid-40s. The Over 46 is therefore our pick in what should be one of the week’s most entertaining games.

For an extra bonus, the Fanatics sportsbook promo will bag you 10 x 100% daily profit boosts when you register as a new customer.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, November 9, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)

The Chargers have found a rhythm on offense, which bodes well for them in this primetime matchup. 

They’re at their best when the game flows through quick, rhythmic passing. And that’s something they’ll be able to establish against a Steelers defense that relies heavily on pressure, but remains vulnerable underneath. 

At home, Los Angeles tends to play with better tempo and spacing, using early-down aggressiveness to open up the middle of the field.

Pittsburgh’s defense is physical but has been stretched thin by time of possession. We’ve seen their offense struggling to sustain drives, which results in their defense spending too much time on the field, and cracks eventually show. The Chargers’ balanced attack should take advantage late.

Unless the Steelers can create multiple takeaways, this matchup favors Los Angeles’ pace, protection, and overall offensive ceiling. The Chargers -3 is a fair number and a logical side in a game that should tilt steadily their way after halftime.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Monday, November 10, 8:15 PM ET (ESPN)

This Monday night matchup feels tailor-made for a slower, more tactical game. By November, Lambeau Field often brings wind and colder air that naturally suppress deep passing, and both teams are built to play within that reality.

So expect an emphasis on running the ball, controlling possession, and minimizing turnovers. In other words, all the ingredients that favor a lower total.

The Eagles’ defense continues to excel against the run and in the red zone, forcing opponents to settle for field goals. The Packers, meanwhile, have played at one of the league’s slowest offensive tempos. They seem content to grind out drives and lean on situational football rather than fireworks.

While both quarterbacks are undoubtedly capable of explosive plays, the game flow points toward sustained, physical drives rather than a shootout. With two well-coached defenses and a forecast that limits offensive rhythm, the Under 45.5 feels like the smart play to close out the week.

NFL Week 10 Betting Takeaways

By this stage of the season, offensive identity and situational football rule the betting market.

• Quarterback efficiency remains the best midseason indicator of ATS success. Teams like the Texans, Lions, and Chiefs continue to cover because they stay on schedule and protect the ball.

• Totals require context. As weather tightens, unders rise, yet controlled environments like Miami, San Francisco, or SoFi Stadium still offer over value.

• Line play and travel fatigue are shaping spreads. Clubs with reliable protection units (49ers, Lions, Texans) outperform the market, while blitz-dependent defenses are beginning to regress.

Smart bettors should stay disciplined, track injury reports, and shop lines early in the week at the best NFL betting sites before public money adjusts.