Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 291

poirier vs gaethje ufc 291
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 18. Jul 2023.

Second-ranked Dustin Poirier and third-ranked Justin Gaethje will clash in a lightweight contenders showdown in the main event at UFC 291. The five-round encounter will take place on Saturday, July 29, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Poirier (29-7-0) defeated Gaethje in 2018 by a fourth-round TKO in a bout that garnered "Fight of the Year" honors from several media outlets. He has won four of his last five fights, with victories against Michael Chandler, Conor McGregor (twice), and Dan Hooker.

Gaethje (24-4-0) is 2-2 in his past four matchups, with wins over Chandler and Rafael Fiziev but losses to Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Odds

New York sportsbook WynnBet has Poirier (-130) as a favorite to defeat Gaethje (+110). No lightweight has more knockouts in their UFC career than Poirier, who has mowed down an impressive lineup of top-notch fighters. While Gaethje is a dangerous opponent, look for Poirier to come out on top once again.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Predictions

Poirier is a master at volume striking and is the first fighter to score a KO against Conor McGregor in the Octagon. The 34-year-old is an elite striker who relies heavily on an effective shoulder roll and shifting punching style and hasn't been knocked out since 2016. 

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-jitsu, Poirier combines an uncanny ability to switch stances during a fight with excellent head movement. The former Interim UFC Lightweight champion has won 54% of his victories by knockout, with 25% decision wins and 21% via submissions.

The Louisiana native boasts a 50% striking accuracy with 5.51 significant strikes landed per minute. Poirier, who defends attempted takedowns with a 63% success rate, has a takedown accuracy of 36% with an average of 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. 

Although Poirier topped Gaethje in their first encounter, he expects a brutal rematch at UFC 291 and believes his previous win over his American opponent is irrelevant. 

"Of course, in my mind, I want it to be smooth, and I want to be the matador, and I want to show that I am a better striker, and my movement and my defense is getting better over these years," Poirier told MMA Junkie. "But at the same time, I know what this is. It's a very violent matchup. It's a very violent fight, and adversity will present itself again.”

"It's a completely new fight," added Poirier. "It's a brand new fight. We're both different. We've both learned and had our wins and our losses. It's a different fight. If we're the same people we were in 2018, we wasted five years. We're both better. We're both more dangerous."

Gaethje is also a former interim lightweight champion who possesses above-average striking skills. The Arizona native sports the highest significant strike accuracy in the 155-lb division, and his arsenal also includes lethal leg kicks. 

A former NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, 'The Highlight' has won a whopping 79% of his fights by knockout. He has a 60% striking accuracy with 7.38 significant strikes landed per minute. Gaethje defends attempted takedowns with a 75% success rate but has a takedown accuracy of just 25% with a pitiful average of 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes. 

Reigning UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev strongly believes that Poirier will defeat Gaethje again in their upcoming rematch.

"I think Poirier's gonna beat him," Makhachev said during an interview with former two-division UFC champion Daniel Cormier. "What does Gaethje have for Poirier? Nothing. Poirier (has) good boxing, better than Gaethje, and that's it. It's gonna be a boxing match. I see this match (Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev). He looked good in this match, but Poirier, I think, is different."

Betting Pick: Dustin Poirier

We foresee Dustin Poirier showcasing his striking expertise and tenacity to secure a knockout victory over Justin Gaethje in the fourth round. Poirier's precision and ability to capitalize on openings could prove decisive, but Gaethje's relentless aggression may keep the fight intense throughout.

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Betting Tips

Betting odds for this much-anticipated lightweight showdown are live on New York's prominent sportsbooks, including WynnBet, which has listed Poirier as a -130 favorite.

The most prevalent bet type for this UFC fight is the moneyline, betting on who will win the fight outright. 

Our pick would be to back Poirier, given his consistent track record, defensive fighting style, and superior boxing skills. A $100 wager on Poirier at odds of -130 would net a profit of approximately $76.92, for a total payout of $176.92.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given Poirier's ability to absorb damage and Gaethje's aggressive style, this might be a more extended fight.

If we consider their previous encounter, which ended in the fourth round, and both fighters' evolution since then, we might expect the fight to last at least three full rounds. Thus, betting Over 2.5 rounds could be a promising pick.

Poirier has shown great resilience in his fights, often using his endurance to outlast and wear down his opponents. On the other hand, Gaethje is a power striker, and his fights tend to end early due to his knockout power.

Given Poirier's comments about expecting a "very violent fight," we could speculate a potentially lengthy and hard-fought contest. Therefore, we might lean toward betting on Over 3.5 rounds, expecting the fight to reach into the fourth round or possibly go the distance.

When and Where is the Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Fight?

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will follow up their 2018 Fight of the Year with a five-round sequel on Saturday, July 29, at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Mixed martial arts fans in New York can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.


#2-ranked Dustin Poirier is the favorite to defeat #3-ranked Justin Gaethje for the second time at UFC 291. WynnBet has Poirier as a -130 betting favorite, while Gaethje is a slight +110 underdog.

#3-ranked Jan Blachowicz will battle #2-ranked Alex Pereira in a light heavyweight contenders fight, while #7-ranked middleweight Paulo Costa will tangle with unranked Ikram Aliskerov. Other matches on the undercard include lightweights Tony Ferguson squaring off against Bobby Green, #12-ranked Michael Chiesa facing Kevin Holland, and #7-ranked Stephen Thompson butting heads with #15-ranked Michel Pereira in a pair of welterweight contests. Also, #11-ranked Derrick Lewis will collide with Brazilian Marcos Rogerio De Lima in a heavyweight bout.

UFC betting fans can place wagers during the fight with live UFC odds that are constantly updated based on the real action inside the Octagon. The most popular types of in-play betting offered include moneyline bets on the predicted winner, the method of victory, and how long the fight will last.

BetMGM New York is a well-known sportsbook where you can bet on this exciting lightweight matchup.

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