Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira: UFC 317 Odds, Tips & Predictions

Fight Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025

Venue: T‑Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Odds: Topuria (-550) - Oliveira (+380)

The UFC returns to International Fight Week with one of its most electrifying matchups of the year for UFC 317. Undefeated former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria (16‑0) takes on former lightweight king Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (35‑10) for the vacant lightweight title on June 28 at the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas.

Topuria, rising from featherweight, knocked out Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway in his last two fights, becoming 2024’s Fighter of the Year. He’s aiming to become a two-division champion.

Oliveira, former lightweight champ and UFC record-holder with 20 finishes and bonuses, is back to reclaim glory after vacating the belt at lightweight in 2022.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Odds

Betting markets have firmly installed Ilia Topuria as the favorite, with odds reflecting widespread belief in his youth, momentum, and finishing ability at the elite level.

Current moneyline odds (via BetMGM sportsbook):

• Ilia Topuria: -550 (favorite)

• Charles Oliveira: +380 (underdog)

Topuria’s heavy favorite status reflects a surge of public and sharp money backing the undefeated Georgian. His rapid ascent through the featherweight division, capped by back-to-back finishes of Volkanovski and Holloway, has bettors confident he’ll carry that power and precision up a weight class.

Meanwhile, Oliveira’s underdog value is enticing for fans who believe his elite-level submission game and extensive championship experience can slow down Topuria’s steamroll. With long odds he’s priced as a high-risk/high-reward play, but this might be appealing to bettors who believe in his veteran savvy and chaos potential.

Market Movements & Analysis

Early lines opened closer to -275 for Topuria, but steady action over recent weeks have pushed him to shorter odds on most platforms including the leading UFC sportsbooks. The line could tighten slightly as fight night nears and Oliveira loyalists seek value.

Prop markets are shaping up with similar sentiment: Topuria by KO and Oliveira by Sub are the two most bet-on outcome prop bets thus far, signaling confidence in early violence.

For value hunters, this is a fight where method and round props offer significantly more upside than the moneyline alone. Topuria’s heavy favorite odds offer limited standalone value, so those backing him will likely shift to early KO props or same-game parlays. Conversely, Oliveira's submission or comeback-win props offer high upside if the fight turns chaotic.

Tale of the Tape

“I believe in the fire and power of these hands I have… I will knock this guy out. That’s for real.”

- Charles Oliveira

“I feel really sorry for Charles… whatever is least painful for him, that’s what I’ll do because I like him a lot”.

- Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Predictions

Our Prediction: Ilia Topuria via KO/TKO (Rounds 1–3)

We’re predicting Topuria to win by KO/TKO within the first three rounds based on his fight-ending power, fast-paced striking style, and recent dominance against elite competition. 

Undefeated at 16–0, Topuria’s last two fights saw him stop Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway who are both renowned for their toughness and durability. That level of finishing ability speaks volumes.

Insider Insight: Miloš Janičić Agrees

Miloš Janičić, a professional fighter who was directly involved in Topuria’s training camp, shares our view. As a close training partner, Janičić offers rare insight into Topuria’s preparation and believes a finish is inevitable.

Watch Miloš’s prediction here:

A Matchup of Fighting Styles

This matchup favors Topuria especially if he can stay on his feet. He applies pressure early, throws crisp combinations with power, and cuts angles well. 

Oliveira, while incredibly dangerous on the ground, has shown defensive lapses in striking exchanges. He’s been dropped or rocked in multiple fights, including against Gaethje, Poirier, and Chandler. Topuria has the technical precision and killer instinct to capitalize on those same openings, and potentially finish the job before the championship rounds.

Risk Factors (and Why We Still Lean to Topuria)

Charles Oliveira’s submission game is elite and always a threat. However, Topuria has excellent takedown defense and composure in grappling scenarios. If he avoids the ground early, which his recent performances suggest he can, Oliveira will be forced into exchanges where Topuria thrives. 

This prediction hinges on Topuria keeping the fight upright, where his power and tempo will likely be overwhelming.

What The Experts Are Saying

The MMA community is buzzing with anticipation ahead of UFC 317’s lightweight title showdown. With an undefeated phenom facing a seasoned finisher, opinions are divided on how this high-stakes clash might unfold. Here's how some of the sport’s most respected voices are sizing it up.

UFC commentator and former UFC champion Michael Bisping is bullish on Topuria’s chances, citing his physical transformation and relentless pressure on his YouTube channel:

“I am leaning towards Ilia Topuria… he looks big, he looks bulked up, he's going to be able to hit harder, … the cardio's gonna be better. … He will be a much more improved athlete.”

Bisping also had something to say about Oliveira’s aggressive forward pressure potentially opening him up to Topuria’s ability to strike:

“Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira is an exciting fighter… but it’s that reckless style that might get him clipped. Ilia Topuria, on the flip side, he’s clean. He’s composed, calm… he’s looking for openings and then he explodes… He might explode the chin of Charles Oliveira.” 

- Michael Bisping

Meanwhile, former lightweight contender Paul Felder, who has shared the Octagon with elite grapplers, also favors Topuria and highlighted his ability to neutralize Oliveira’s strengths when speaking about the fight back in May

“I think he can grapple enough to keep that on the feet … I think he’s got enough pop to do some real damage.” 

- Paul Felder

The overall sentiment amongst MMA experts aligns with that of the bookies: that Topuria is primed for the win. His fresh weight class, knockout resume, and mental edge have all been highlighted as signs he could dominate the striking exchanges and prevent Oliveira from playing his usual game.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Tips

Tip 1: Topuria by KO/TKO, Rounds 1–3

Betting on Ilia Topuria to win by KO/TKO in the first three rounds is one of the most attractive plays for UFC 317. Topuria is a notoriously fast starter with knockout power in both hands, and he’s shown time and again that he doesn’t need long to find his target. His finishes over Volkanovski and Holloway came early, and he thrives on pressuring opponents from the opening bell.

Against Charles Oliveira an early finish is a very realistic outcome. Oliveira’s tendency to get clipped before recovering could prove costly against someone like Topuria, who rarely lets hurt opponents off the hook. This prop typically falls in the +200 to +350 range and offers far better value than Topuria’s moneyline. If you believe in Topuria’s power and momentum, this is the smart, high-upside angle to target.

Tip 2: Oliveira via Submission

If you’re backing the underdog, Charles Oliveira to win by submission is the most logical and lucrative path to consider. Oliveira holds the record for most submissions in UFC history and remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the sport. Despite Topuria’s well-roundedness, he hasn’t faced a submission threat as potent as “Do Bronx.”

Oliveira’s ground game is opportunistic and lethal — even if hurt or dropped, he’s capable of snatching a choke or lock from seemingly any position. If this fight hits the mat early or Topuria overcommits in the clinch, a submission could end things fast. Priced around +600 to +900, this prop offers massive value for bettors who believe Oliveira can weather the storm and drag the fight into his world.

Tip 3: Fight Goes the Distance

For those unsure about picking a side, betting on the fight to go the distance offers a strong neutral angle with solid value. While both fighters are known finishers, they’ve also shown impressive durability and composure in high-stakes fights. Topuria may push early for a knockout, but if Oliveira survives the initial blitz, his experience could help him settle in and drag the fight into deeper waters.

Likewise, Oliveira’s submission threats might force Topuria to fight more cautiously than usual, especially in grappling exchanges. If both men show respect for each other's finishing ability, a five-round battle becomes a real possibility. This prop usually sits between –130 and –160, offering a safer, lower-variance option for bettors expecting a drawn-out, competitive war.