Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 296

UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards will battle against No. 3 ranked Colby Covington in the main event at UFC 296. The five-round title bout will take place on Saturday, December 16, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Edwards (21-3-0) will defend his title for the second time after disposing of former champion Kamaru Usman in March. The 32-year-old has strung together 12 consecutive wins since losing a unanimous decision to Usman eight years ago.

Covington (17-3-0) hasn't fought in 20 months since going the distance in a win over Jorge Masvidal at UFC 272. The 35-year-old is just 2-2 in his last four fights with a pair of title fight losses to Usman.

In the co-main event, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will tangle with No. 4 ranked Brandon Royval in an intriguing rematch. Pantoja garnered a submission win against Royval in their first encounter in 2021 and is riding a four-fight winning streak.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Odds

Edwards (-125) is a slight favorite to successfully defend his welterweight title against Covington (+100), per BetMGM sportsbook. But the underdog has not lost to anyone not named Usman since 2015. This fight is a toss-up with both combatants capable of notching the victory.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Betting Predictions

Edwards is an intelligent fighter who is adept at controlling the pace of the fight. The Jamaican boasts an average fight duration of 16 minutes and 24 seconds, and lands 2.80 significant strikes per minute with a 53% striking accuracy.

The former BAMMA Welterweight Champion is a methodical striker who wears down his opponents with precision blows. Although Covington has superior takedown skills, Edwards has an impressive 69% takedown defense that could change the momentum of this title fight.

Covington is an aggressive fighter with elite grappling skills. The American is a capable striker who lands 4.10 strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 39%. However, his main strength is his takedown skills, with an impressive 4.05 takedowns every 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 45%.

The former Interim UFC Welterweight Champion needs to combine his takedown game with a mix of wrestling and striking to dictate the pace of the fight. Covington likes to use his strikes to set up his grappling, but must overcome his poor defense that absorbs 3.05 strikes per minute.

UFC veteran Matt Brown believes that Covington could retire from the sport if he fails to dethrone Edwards in this do-or-die title fight.

"I have a hard time believing he's going to continue fighting if he loses this fight, to be honest," Brown said about Covington on the newest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer. "He just doesn't come across as that kind of guy to me.

"He hasn't fought for two years. He's not built like me, where I love fighting, and if I lost 10 in a row, I'd still want to fight. He's the kind of guy where I think he's in there to get paid, get his money, stir up as much s*** as he can, and get out. Nothing against that. I'm not saying that's the wrong way to do it. Had I operated in that fashion, maybe I'd be living in a bigger home right now. It is what it is, but , and he hasn't fought for two years.

In a recent appearance on Ariel Helwani's TheMMAHour, welterweight sensation Stephen Thompson picked Edwards to defeat Covington.

"I Like Leon... You know, we saw what happened with Colby Covington, and Usman , right? Colby Covington is not coming off of a severe knockout from this guy. But if you look back at the fight, it's going to be, I feel like Leon Edwards is the bigger welterweight. I feel like the fight is going to stay standing. I think his takedown defense, even Usman, couldn't hold him down." 

Betting Pick: Leon Edwards

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Betting Tips

Betting odds for this highly-anticipated welterweight championship fight are live on well-known sportsbooks, including BetMGM, which has listed Edwards as a -125 favorite. 

The most common bet type for this UFC fight is the moneyline, a wager on who will win the fight outright.

Considering how the reigning champion has not lost a fight in nearly eight years and has knocked off Usman - who has defeated Covington twice - in his previous two bouts, Edwards is the favorite. However, Covington returned to action last year with an impressive win over Masvidal that has the oddsmakers making this title bout a close call. Edwards is our pick to win the fight, and a $100 wager on the champion at odds of -125 would net a total payout of $180.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given that most of Edwards and Covington's recent bouts have gone the distance, we expect the fight to end in a decision. Thus, betting Over 3.5 rounds could be a winning pick.

When and Where is the Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Fight?

The five-round welterweight championship fight will occur on Saturday, December 16, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mixed martial arts fans in New York can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.