Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili - UFC 316 Odds, Tips & Predictions

UFC 316’s headline bout sees reigning bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili defend his title in a highly anticipated rematch against former champion Sean O’Malley on Saturday, June 7, 2025, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

The two first met at UFC 306, where Dvalishvili dethroned O’Malley via unanimous decision after a dominant display of relentless pressure, cardio, and grappling control. That victory ignited O’Malley’s push for redemption - and now, nine months later, he gets his shot to reclaim the gold.

O’Malley’s striking flair and range management will once again be tested against Dvalishvili’s swarming takedown entries and suffocating pace. Stylistically, it’s striker vs. smotherer — a classic clash of disciplines that could settle the bantamweight throne for good.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Odds

Current Moneyline Odds (via BetMGM sportsbook):

• Merab Dvalishvili: -325 (favorite)

• Sean O’Malley: +260 (underdog)

The market has swung heavily in favor of Merab Dvalishvili, reflecting growing confidence in his relentless pressure style and dominant win streak. The Georgian’s cardio, takedown volume, and ability to nullify striking threats have made him a popular pick with oddsmakers and bettors alike.

Sean O’Malley, on the other hand, enters as a substantial underdog despite having recently held the title. His movement and striking creativity still make him a dangerous opponent, but questions around his takedown defense loom large in this matchup. For punters seeking value, O’Malley’s underdog status could present an intriguing high-risk, high-reward opportunity.

Tale of the Tape

This matchup is a classic clash of archetypes: Dvalishvili’s relentless, suffocating pace and world-class wrestling versus O’Malley’s finesse, length, and knockout precision. The five-inch height and four-inch reach advantages lean in O’Malley’s favor, but Dvalishvili’s motor and clinch control have a way of levelling technical gaps.

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley Predictions

Our Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili (via unanimous decision)

Dvalishvili’s approach is no mystery, but stopping it is another matter entirely. At UFC 298, he rag-dolled Henry Cejudo with 16 takedown attempts and smothered him with over 200 total strikes. That came after his masterclass against Petr Yan at UFC Fight Night 221, where he attempted a record 49 takedowns over five rounds.

Merab doesn’t need to land clean on every shot - he just needs to force clinch positions, wear on O’Malley’s legs, and suffocate him with pressure. Over 25 minutes, very few fighters can match his pace, and fewer still can stop it.

Why Merab Dvalishvili Can Win

Dvalishvili’s game plan is no secret: pressure, takedowns, and suffocating pace. In his last outing at UFC 298, he overwhelmed Henry Cejudo with 16 takedown attempts and over 200 strikes thrown. But it was his win over Petr Yan at UFC Fight Night 221 that truly stamped his authority, landing 49 takedown attempts and neutralising one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.

In the lead-up to UFC 316, Dvalishvili made his intentions clear:

“I’ve beaten everyone they’ve put in front of me. Sean’s next.” - Merab Dvalishvili, via MMA Junkie

He thrives in championship rounds, often looking fresher in the fifth than the first. Against a fighter like O’Malley, who needs time and space to set up his shots, Dvalishvili’s swarm could make it impossible to build momentum.

Why Sean O’Malley Can Win

But if there’s a blueprint to beat a pressure grappler, Sean O’Malley might be holding the pen. The former champion has the highest significant strike accuracy in UFC bantamweight history and remains lethal at range. His KO win over Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 was a reminder that his power, timing, and poise make him a live threat against anyone.

“Everyone said I couldn’t stop a wrestler - then I stopped Aljo. I’ll do the same to Merab.” - Sean O’Malley, via The Schmo

For O’Malley, the key is to keep the fight standing in the early rounds, where his movement, range, and precision could help him replicate his success against Sterling. If he can keep Dvalishvili from getting to his hips, even temporarily, he can turn momentum with just one clean strike.

Final Pick: Dvalishvili via decision

O’Malley is dangerous early, but Merab’s pressure, cardio, and takedown chains offer the higher floor over five rounds. Unless O’Malley lands something clean in the first 10 minutes, expect Merab to rack up control time, drain the legs, and coast to another statement win on the scorecards.

What the Experts Are Saying

The MMA world is split on how UFC 316’s main event might unfold — and with good reason. This is a rematch with championship implications, clashing styles, and razor-thin margins. Here’s how respected voices are sizing it up.

Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling, who has trained extensively with Dvalishvili, gave a strong endorsement of his teammate’s chances:

“Merab doesn’t stop. He doesn’t give you time to think, let alone breathe. I’ve sparred with the guy - it’s a nightmare. If Sean can handle that pressure, I’ll be impressed.” - Aljamain Sterling on The MMA Hour

On the other side, UFC commentator Michael Bisping believes O’Malley’s striking IQ could tilt the fight in his favor:

“Sean’s footwork and timing are elite. If he finds his rhythm early, Merab could be chasing shadows. It’s the classic striker vs. grappler chess match.” - Michael Bisping, YouTube

Meanwhile, analyst Dan Hardy is calling it closer than most:

“I’m leaning slightly towards Merab, but you can’t count out a guy like O’Malley who only needs a moment. That switch knee or right hand - it can end everything.” - Dan Hardy, Full Reptile

The experts agree on one thing: this could be one of the year’s most tactical battles.

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili – Betting Tips

Tip 1: Merab Dvalishvili via Decision

If you’re looking for the safest play, Dvalishvili by decision stands out. He’s gone the distance in seven of his last eight wins, and his pressure-heavy style thrives over five rounds. O’Malley has proven hard to finish, so this aligns with how Merab typically dominates - suffocating pace, ground control, and relentless takedowns.

Method of Victory: Dvalishvili by Decision

Best Value Range: +100 to +130 

Tip 2: O’Malley via KO/TKO (Rounds 1–2)

If O’Malley wins, it’s likely through striking - and early. His movement, angles, and sniper-like accuracy give him a narrow window to catch Merab clean before the takedown machine kicks into gear. For bettors looking to fade the favorite, this is your most plausible high-upside play.

Prop: O’Malley to Win via KO/TKO, Round 1 or 2

Value Range: +400 to +600

Tip 3: Fight to Go the Distance

Given Dvalishvili’s grinding style and O’Malley’s durability, the full five rounds are very much in play. If you’re not confident picking a side, this is a strong neutral angle. Neither man has a history of wilting under pressure, and both have been decision-hardened.

Prop: Fight Goes the Distance

Usual Odds: -130 to -160 depending on book

Risk vs. Reward

Dvalishvili is the high-floor pick: cardio, control, and a proven record of dominating elite opponents over 25 minutes.

O’Malley is the high-ceiling gamble: dynamic striking and quick finishes, but a narrow path to victory.

Odds mentioned are reflective of current lines available at top NY sportsbooks, including BetMGM and FanDuel. Always compare odds before placing a bet.