Fight Date: Saturday, August 16, 2025
Venue: United Center, Chicago
Odds: Du Plessis (+180) - Chimaev (-218)
The UFC returns to Chicago with a blockbuster middleweight title fight that promises fireworks. At UFC 319, reigning champion Dricus du Plessis defends his belt for the first time against unbeaten juggernaut Khamzat Chimaev in one of the most anticipated matchups of the year.
Du Plessis captured the crown earlier in 2025 with a gutsy, grinding win over Sean Strickland, a fight that silenced critics and cemented his spot at the top. Now, he’s tasked with defending his throne against a rising force who’s been nearly flawless inside the Octagon.
Chimaev (13-0-0), has bulldozed every opponent put in front of him, combining world-class wrestling with ruthless aggression and killer instinct.
It’s a compelling clash of styles and mindsets: the chaos-bringing brawler from South Africa versus the icy precision of a Chechen-born Swede with a habit of ending fights in minutes. For bettors, it’s a dream matchup; volatile, unpredictable, and packed with prop potential.
Main Event Middleweight Title Bout | ||
Dricus du Plessis 23-2-0 | Vs. | Khamzat Chimaev 13-0-0 |
31 | Age | 30 |
6′1″ | Height | 6′2″ |
185 lbs | Weight | 186 lbs |
76″ | Reach | 75″ |
43” | Leg Reach | 40” |
The UFC 319 main event sees Khamzat Chimaev enter as the favorite, but the odds are tighter than you might expect for an undefeated fighter with his level of dominance.
Dricus du Plessis, now the defending champion, is being given more respect by sportsbooks than most of Chimaev’s past opponents, and with good reason.
Current Moneyline Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook):
Odds at the top UFC sportsbooks have ranged from around -180 to -220 for Chimaev and from around +140 to +180 for du Plessis in the lead up to the event.
These lines imply a 64–69% win probability for Chimaev and a 36-42% probability for Du Plessis, depending on the sportsbook. For context, Chimaev often opened closer to –300 in previous fights, and this narrower line reflects the increased threat Du Plessis poses.
The odds acknowledge Chimaev’s dominant grappling and finishing ability, but also factor in his lack of recent activity, his questions around endurance, and the fact that this is only his second UFC fight at middleweight.
Du Plessis, meanwhile, is riding a nine-fight win streak, including back-to-back victories over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland. This recent form has shown he can go the full five rounds with a high output pace.
When the fight was first announced, sportsbooks opened Chimaev around –250, with Du Plessis priced as high as +190. Since then, money has steadily come in on the champion, tightening the line and showing that bettors aren’t overlooking his proven gas tank and grinding style.
Public money still leans toward Chimaev; his undefeated record, highlight finishes, and grappling dominance draw mainstream attention.
But sharp bettors are taking a closer look at value in the method-of-victory markets, particularly in scenarios where Du Plessis survives the early storm.
Some of the most active prop bets include:
Chimaev by Submission (Rounds 1–2): ideal for bettors who see a fast finish
Du Plessis by Decision: for those expecting the champ to drag Chimaev into deep water
Fight Goes the Distance: increasingly popular as a neutral play, especially with both fighters stepping into unfamiliar territory
From a risk/reward standpoint, Chimaev's moneyline offers low value relative to the risk, especially if he can’t dominate early. Meanwhile, Du Plessis backers get better odds with realistic paths to victory, particularly in later rounds or on the scorecards.
We’re predicting Du Plessis to win by decision based on his relentless pace, awkward striking entries, and proven gas tank over five rounds. Unlike Chimaev’s past opponents, Du Plessis doesn’t fade late. In fact, he gets stronger as the fight goes on.
He’s also shown the ability to scramble and survive under pressure, which may neutralize Chimaev’s early grappling assault. If the champion can survive the first seven minutes without getting controlled on the mat, expect the momentum to shift in his favor.
UFC 319 is set to be a classic clash of styles. Chimaev will most likely look to shoot early, dominate top control, and finish with ground-and-pound or submission.
Meanwhile, Du Plessis brings an unpredictable striking rhythm, volume, and excellent recovery. His awkward angles can disrupt timing and frustrate opponents into mistakes.
If the takedown doesn’t come early, Chimaev may be forced into a slower-paced kickboxing match. But this is a scenario where Du Plessis thrives, so might work in the South African’s favor.
Chimaev’s early takedowns are dangerous. If he gets the back or passes to mount in Round 1, a submission or TKO becomes highly likely.
However, if Du Plessis can survive and return to his feet consistently, the fight may turn into a war of attrition, and this is one he’s proven he can win.
The MMA world is split on how this one unfolds. Here’s what leading analysts and fighters are predicting:
“If Chimaev wins, it’s early. But I see Du Plessis bringing the aggression later in the fight.”
- Israel Adesanya, via AS.com
“It depends on whether Chimaev can finish him on the ground. If not, I lean toward Dricus.”
- Robert Whittaker, via MMA Mania
“He’ll dominate him inside three rounds — too much pressure, too unpredictable.”
- Mark Hulme (Du Plessis teammate), via TalkSport
Despite Chimaev’s undefeated record, many insiders believe Du Plessis’s toughness and cardio could swing this fight in the championship rounds.
This matchup between Du Plessis and Chimaev is a classic high-variance fight; a stylistic clash between a storming grappler and a grinding, pressure-based striker.
While the moneyline doesn’t offer much value unless you're betting the underdog, the real opportunity lies in the props, where method and timing matter more than just picking a winner.
Target odds: +300 to +500
Why we like this bet:
Chimaev has never been into deep waters in a five-rounder
Du Plessis thrives in long, gritty fights
Looks great value, especially at longer odds at some sportsbooks
If you’re backing the champion, this is arguably the smartest angle to take. Du Plessis is known for wearing opponents down with volume, clinch work, and relentless pace.
This prop offers considerable upside if you expect Du Plessis to weather the early storm and outwork Chimaev later. Many sportsbooks are pricing this well because the underdog has shown real motor and durability, especially against wrestlers and finishers.
Du Plessis thrives in longer fights and consistently applies pressure with volume, especially in later rounds. Against Sean Strickland, he proved he could go five rounds while maintaining intensity and output. That’s something Chimaev hasn’t yet done in his UFC career.
This pick hinges on one key assumption: Du Plessis survives the first seven minutes. If he does, Chimaev’s explosive entries will start to slow, and the tide could turn. Du Plessis’s unorthodox style may not produce clean knockouts, but he’s proven capable of winning rounds through attritional damage and output.
Target odds: +200 to +350
Why we like this bet:
Chimaev’s best finishes come early
Du Plessis is hittable and vulnerable to back exposure
This prop pays out much better than Chimaev’s flat moneyline
This is the sharpest path for anyone backing Chimaev. His most consistent path to victory is quick and violent, capitalizing on early grappling dominance.
The favorite’s past finishes, like the face crank on Whittaker and submissions over Holland, support the theory that if he can lock Du Plessis down early, the fight ends quickly.
This prop offers great value relative to Chimaev’s style. It acknowledges his explosive capability while managing risk by limiting the payout window to the rounds where he’s proven most dangerous. If he gets Du Plessis down early and isolates a limb or the neck, a submission is entirely plausible. He submitted Li Jingliang and dominated Kevin Holland in under a round.
However, the key here is timing. Chimaev has shown cardio questions and moments of recklessness in longer fights (see: Burns). If he doesn’t finish early, the odds shift against him, which is why narrowing this bet to the first two rounds makes it a better value play.
Target odds: –110 to +130
Why we like this bet:
Du Plessis went five rounds at a high pace vs. Strickland
Chimaev may conserve energy for later rounds
This outcome covers a wider set of scenarios at moderate risk
In a fight where both men have known finishing power, this might seem counterintuitive. But it’s worth considering. Du Plessis has a granite chin and deceptive defense, while Chimaev may fight more cautiously in his first five-round title bout.
If both men show mutual respect and neither is able to fully impose their style, this could become a drawn-out, grinding affair. This prop also works well as a hedge if you’re unsure about the outcome but expect a close contest.
The key to profiting on this fight is not just picking a winner, it’s about identifying when and how the fight unfolds, and aligning your bet accordingly.
If you believe in Chimaev, avoid the moneyline and aim for a Round 1–2 finish via sub or KO
If you trust Du Plessis’s durability and pace, lean into decision or late-round bets
For neutral bettors, the “Fight Goes the Distance” prop offers a strategic middle ground
UFC 319 offers a stylistic storm waiting to explode, and for smart bettors, it’s a prime opportunity. If you trust Chimaev’s killer instinct, lean into the early finish. But if you believe in the champ’s ability to endure and outwork, Du Plessis by decision offers serious value. No matter your angle, this one could shake the middleweight division for good.
