Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025
Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Main Event: Heavyweight Title Bout – Tom Aspinall (C) vs. Ciryl Gane
Odds (per BetMGM): Tom Aspinall: - 400, Ciryil Gane: + 300
The heavyweight title picture gets a high-stakes shake-up at UFC 321, as interim champion Tom Aspinall puts his belt on the line against former interim champ Ciryl Gane on Saturday, October 25, 2025, live from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
It’s a stylistic contrast between the raw power and pressure of Aspinall and the elusive, technical striking of Gane. With Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic’s timelines still uncertain, the winner here could force a long-awaited unification or claim undisputed status if circumstances change.
Aspinall emphatically earned his title, dismantling Sergei Pavlovich in just over a minute. But Gane is no stranger to the top; the Frenchman has fought for UFC gold twice and knows the pressure of a five-round main event.
This fight offers redemption for Gane and validation for Aspinall. Can the British powerhouse assert himself as the future of the division, or will Gane’s footwork and finesse frustrate another contender?
We break down the odds, matchup dynamics, expert insights, and best bets for one of 2025’s most anticipated heavyweight showdowns.
Betting markets have firmly installed Tom Aspinall as the heavy favorite, with odds reflecting widespread belief in his athleticism, pressure grappling, and finishing ability at the highest level.
Current Moneyline Odds (via BetMGM New York):
Tom Aspinall: -400 (favorite)
Ciryl Gane: +300 (underdog)
Aspinall’s odds indicate a strong level of confidence from both the betting public and sharp bettors. The English interim heavyweight champ is riding a wave of momentum after finishing Sergei Pavlovich in the first round at UFC 295, showcasing frightening speed, fight IQ, and heavyweight agility rarely seen in the division. His balanced threat of takedowns and crisp boxing gives oddsmakers little reason to doubt his position atop the division.
For Ciryl Gane backers, however, the +300 underdog price represents clear value. While his loss to Jon Jones in UFC 285 exposed some grappling vulnerabilities, Gane remains one of the most polished strikers in UFC heavyweight history. If he can manage distance and keep the fight standing, his kickboxing pedigree could create real problems for Aspinall — especially if the Englishman overcommits early.
This line reflects a classic case of “style vs. vulnerability.” Aspinall’s wrestling and top control vs. Gane’s takedown defense and movement. The price shows the market believes the path to victory is narrower for Gane — but it’s still one that exists, particularly in the early rounds.
Heavyweight | ||
Tom Aspinall 15-3 | Vs | Ciryl Gane 13-2 |
32 | Age | 35 |
6’ 5” | Height | 6’ 4” |
256 lbs | Weight | 254 lbs |
78” | Reach | 81” |
Champion | UFC Ranking | Former Interim Champion |
This fight pits two of the most gifted heavyweights in modern MMA against one another — but the difference may lie in momentum and versatility. Tom Aspinall has quickly become a fan favorite not only for his finishes, but for his calm, calculated aggression. His blend of speed, athleticism, and ground control is rare at heavyweight. Against Ciryl Gane, who has struggled to defend takedowns against top-tier grapplers, that toolset may be decisive.
Gane, on the other hand, is as slick as they come on the feet. He moves like a middleweight, reads his opponents well, and picks his shots with clinical precision. But if this fight touches the mat, he may find himself drowning again, just as he did against Jon Jones.
If Aspinall pressures early and forces an exchange or clinch, he can bring the fight to the canvas, where his top control and submission threat will create chaos. From there, it may only take one transition to end the night.
Aspinall’s pathway to victory is clear: mix striking with level changes, threaten the takedown, and exploit Gane’s weaknesses on the mat. The interim champ has the tools — fast entries, sharp elbows, and a killer instinct on top — to turn a small opening into a finish.
His quick first-round KO of Sergei Pavlovich wasn’t just a highlight; it was a statement. Aspinall didn’t just win, he dismantled one of the most feared punchers in the division. If he approaches this bout with the same confidence and patience, he’ll find chances to bring Gane into deep water, where his fight IQ and grappling superiority can take over.
Ciryl Gane is arguably the best pure striker in the heavyweight division. His movement, range management, and feints keep most opponents off balance, and his composure under fire is elite. If he can avoid Aspinall’s takedowns early and establish his jab and leg kicks, the tide can shift fast.
Gane’s TKO wins over Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa remind us that he doesn’t need one-shot power, he breaks opponents down over time. Against Aspinall, he’ll look to play matador: circling, countering, and making the Englishman pay for overcommitting.
But to win, Gane will need to show he’s shored up his defensive grappling. That’s the real X-factor in this bout.
As UFC 321 draws closer, analysts and insiders are weighing in on the heavyweight title clash between interim champ Tom Aspinall and former titleholder Ciryl Gane. With both men known for their speed, footwork, and finishing ability, this matchup has generated contrasting opinions.
Alexander Volkov: “A 50-50 fight… but I slightly lean Aspinall”
Veteran heavyweight Alexander Volkov, who has shared the Octagon with both Aspinall and Gane, believes this one could go either way:
“I have fought Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane… I would say it’s a 50-50 fight. Maybe I lean slightly toward Aspinall because of his experience and form right now.” - GiveMeSport
Volkov’s insight carries weight; he was stopped in the first round by Aspinall in 2022 and went three full rounds with Gane in 2021.
MMAUK: “If it goes the distance, Gane could edge it”
In their fight preview, MMAUK suggests the longer this fight goes, the more it might favor the Frenchman:
“This fight will create a great combination of Aspinall’s explosive finishing power and Gane’s elite footwork and technical striking. If it goes the distance, Gane’s composure and ability to score points from range could sway judges.”
That analysis echoes a common theme among pundits: Aspinall’s best chance may come early, while Gane's path to victory could rely on surviving the initial flurry and taking over with range and volume.
Given Aspinall’s explosive finishing ability, with 10 of his 14 wins coming via knockout, backing him to finish Gane inside the distance offers value. Gane was stopped by Jon Jones in their title bout at UFC 285 and has occasionally struggled with opponents who close distance quickly.
This is a heavyweight fight between two dynamic finishers, and the odds reflect that. Aspinall hasn’t gone to the scorecards once in the UFC, while Gane has only reached a decision in two of his last five fights.
If you’re looking for a value underdog play, Gane by decision could be worth a sprinkle. He has shown the ability to outpoint heavy hitters from range and could frustrate Aspinall if he survives the early storm.
High floor: Aspinall ITD (inside the distance) is the most common-sense bet based on historical data.
High ceiling: Gane decision offers long odds but needs a specific, slower-paced scenario to cash.
Neutral angle: Fight does not go the distance balances risk without picking a side.
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Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Ciryl Gane - Heavyweight Title Bout
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern - Women’s Strawweight, for vacant title
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista - Bantamweight bout
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida - Heavyweight bout
Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov - Light Heavyweight bout
According to BetMGM New York, Tom Aspinall is the betting favorite at -400, with Ciryl Gane as the underdog at +300. The odds reflect confidence in Aspinall’s speed, finishing ability, and momentum as interim champ.
UFC 321 will be held at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE on Saturday, October 25, 2025.
You can stream UFC 321 exclusively via ESPN+ PPV in the United States. Prelims will be available on ESPN2 and ESPN+, with the main card airing at 10 PM ET.
The confirmed main card for UFC 321 includes:
Main Event – Heavyweight Title Bout: Tom Aspinall (c) vs. Ciryl Gane
Co-Main Event – Women’s Strawweight Title Bout: Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern
Heavyweight Bout: Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Light Heavyweight Bout: Aleksandar Rakić vs. Azamat Murzakanov
Bantamweight Bout: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
New York bettors can explore top-rated UFC sportsbooks like BetMGM, Fanatics, Caesars, and FanDuel, which offer competitive UFC 321 odds, promos, and prop bets tailored for NY markets.
