Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 – UFC Bantamweight Title Bout
Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van – UFC Flyweight Title Bout
Odds (via BetMGM):
Merab Dvalishvili: –455 (heavy favorite)
Petr Yan: +340 (underdog)
The UFC closes out its 2025 pay-per-view schedule with a monumental bantamweight title rematch as champion Merab Dvalishvili seeks to cement a historic fourth title defense of the year against former champion Petr Yan. Their first meeting produced one of the most grueling, pressure-heavy performances ever seen in the division, and this rematch carries even higher stakes.
Dvalishvili’s unbelievable cardio, relentless wrestling, and improved striking have shaped him into one of the UFC’s least solvable champions. But Yan, whose technical boxing and defensive fundamentals remain elite, enters with vengeance on his mind and the adjustments to reclaim gold.
Fittingly, this high-stakes showdown headlines a historic UFC event.
UFC 323 isn’t just the last major event of 2025, it’s the final ESPN+ pay-per-view, closing a transformative seven-year partnership that reshaped how fans watched the sport. Since 2019, ESPN has been the exclusive home of UFC PPVs, delivering some of the biggest gates, record-breaking buys, and mainstream visibility in the promotion’s history.
Beginning in 2026, the UFC will transition to its new broadcast home on Paramount+, under a landmark long-term rights deal that will shift the way fans consume major events. Numbered events, including former pay-per-views, will stream directly on Paramount+, with select marquee cards also simulcast on CBS.
Current Moneyline Odds (via BetMGM Nevada):
Merab Dvalishvili: –455 (heavy favorite)
Petr Yan: +340 (underdog)
The betting market has swung decisively toward the champion, reflecting Merab Dvalishvili’s dominance in their first meeting and his unprecedented run through the bantamweight division in 2025. A –455 line suggests strong confidence that his relentless pace, wrestling volume, and cardio will once again prove too much for Yan over five rounds.
Yan at +340, however, remains a tempting price for bettors who believe in his technical boxing, defensive improvements, and proven ability to adjust in rematches. It’s the widest odds gap of his UFC career, and one that highlights both the difficulty of the matchup and the potential value in backing the former champion.
The wider odds gap reflects both Merab’s evolution throughout 2025 and bettors’ skepticism that Yan can stop the nonstop takedown pressure he struggled with in their first meeting.
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Bantamweight – Main Event
Merab Dvalishvili | Petr Yan | |
18-4-0 | Record | 17-6-0 |
34 | Age | 32 |
5’6” | Height | 5’7” |
135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
68” | Reach | 67” |
4.3 | SLpM | 5.1 |
40% | Striking Accuracy | 52% |
40% | Takedown Accuracy | 55% |
86% | Takedown Defense | 90% |
Champion | UFC Ranking | #2 Bantamweight |
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Our Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili (via unanimous decision)
Despite Yan being one of the most technically sound strikers in the sport, this remains a stylistically difficult matchup for him. Dvalishvili’s pace, chain-wrestling, and ability to turn every second into a scramble create a fight rhythm that few opponents can match.
Yan’s best moments come when he can dictate range and build round over round. Merab gives nobody that breathing room.
This fight is likely to echo their first matchup that took place on March 11, 2023: Yan having success in pockets of striking exchanges, but Dvalishvili’s pressure taking over as the rounds accumulate. Over 25 minutes, Merab’s volume, clinch control, and takedown output should be enough to secure another clear decision.
Dvalishvili’s advantages are structural:
Relentless cardio unmatched in the bantamweight division
Chain-wrestling that forces constant defensive reactions
Tactical improvements in striking under the Serra-Longo camp
Ability to break opponents mentally through pace and pressure
Proven blueprint from their first fight
Merab’s style doesn’t require big moments — it requires 25 minutes of drowning forward movement. His wrestling volume, cage control, and ability to dictate tempo make him incredibly difficult to dethrone.
Yan is still one of the most complete and technical bantamweights ever:
Elite shot selection and footwork
Excellent takedown defense (90%)
Sharp counters that punish predictable entries
A history of strong adjustments in rematches
Championship experience against the very best
Yan must make Merab pay early, intercepting takedowns with uppercuts, knees, and angles to disrupt rhythm. If he can discourage the level changes and keep exchanges clean, Yan can work his way into a competitive fight.
Prop: Over 4.5 Rounds
Odds Range: -180 to -200
This is the safest and most consistent betting angle on the UFC 323 main event. Their first fight went all five rounds, neither man has ever been finished in the UFC, and both are historically durable with elite defensive fundamentals. Merab’s style is built around pace, control, and accumulation, while Yan maintains composure even when behind on the cards. All signs point to another full 25-minute battle.
Prop Value: +100 to +120
With Dvalishvili a heavy –455 favorite, the moneyline offers limited value. His decision prop, however, matches both his track record and the stylistic dynamic of this fight. Merab has won six of his last seven by decision, and Yan has never been finished. Expect Dvalishvili to lean on pressure, chain wrestling, and cage control rather than chase a stoppage, making a points victory the most probable outcome.
Prop Value: +700 to +900
If Yan pulls off the upset, this is the most realistic method. His technical boxing, timing, and sharp counters give him opportunities to punish Merab’s level changes with uppercuts, hooks, and knees. Yan rarely loses by wide margins — he tends to start slow and build momentum — but he needs a big moment early to disrupt Merab’s rhythm. At this price, Yan’s KO prop is the best way to play the underdog with real upside.
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Bantamweight Title: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan — Rematch, bantamweight championship defense.
Flyweight Title: Alexandre Pantoja (c) vs. Joshua Van — Flyweight championship.
Flyweight Bout: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira
Bantamweight Bout: Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott
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Saturday, December 6, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA.
Bantamweight Championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Petr Yan 2
14 matchups are confirmed for UFC 323.
Key non-title fights include Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott, and Jan Błachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov.
New York bettors can explore the best UFC sportsbooks like BetMGM, Fanatics, Caesars, and FanDuel, which offer competitive UFC 323 odds, promos, and prop bets tailored for NY markets.
UFC 323 will stream exclusively on ESPN+ Pay-Per-View. Fans will need an active ESPN+ subscription to purchase and watch the main card. Early Prelims and Prelims will air on ESPN2 and stream on ESPN+ before the PPV broadcast begins.
