Event: UFC 326 – Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Date: March 7, 2026
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira (BMF Title)
Current Favorite: Max Holloway (-170 to -190)
UFC 326 delivers a long-awaited rematch as Max Holloway defends the BMF title against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira in Las Vegas. More than a decade after their first meeting, both men enter with championship pedigrees, defined styles, and clear betting angles.
Holloway opens as the favorite, but Oliveira’s finishing upside keeps the market competitive. From a wagering perspective, this is a classic volume striker vs. submission specialist matchup, and those dynamics create opportunity across moneylines, props, and round totals.
Below is a detailed breakdown of the odds, stylistic matchups, and the best betting angles for UFC 326.
Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Probability |
Max Holloway | -170 to -190 | ~63–65% |
Charles Oliveira | +145 to +165 | ~38–41% |
The market positions Holloway as a moderate favorite, reflecting:
Elite striking volume
Proven five-round cardio
Exceptional durability
Experience in high-profile main events
However, this is not a wide line, and expert opinions reflect that competitive tension.
Nate Diaz, never shy with his opinions on the BMF picture, has publicly backed Holloway heading into the rematch:
“I like Max.” - Nate Diaz on UFC 326
That sentiment mirrors the betting market’s lean toward Holloway’s pace and output.
On the other side, lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan has suggested Oliveira’s unpredictability keeps him dangerous:
“Oliveira sometimes fights so bad, but sometimes he is unreal… I still lean towards Oliveira winning.” - Arman Tsarukyan (h/t MMA DropZone)
That split among respected fighters reinforces why the underdog price on Oliveira remains attractive to value hunters.
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Holloway wins fights by accumulation. He builds rounds with pace and output rather than relying on one-shot knockouts.
Key factors:
Significant strike differential
Ability to maintain output over 25 minutes
Experience in multiple five-round wars
Improved defensive scrambling
Holloway has openly acknowledged how much Oliveira has evolved since their first meeting:
“Oliveira is just a killer, you know? His striking came a long way and if you see most of his finishes, a lot of the times it’s not hail-Mary submissions that he’s finishing people with. He’s a real mixed martial artist… come March 7, though, we get to find out everything. Oliveira is Oliveira.” - Max Holloway
That respect is warranted. Oliveira is far more complete than he was in 2015. But the structural betting question remains the same: if this becomes a prolonged striking battle, Holloway’s volume typically wins minutes, and minutes win decisions.
If the fight extends past Round 2 without sustained grappling control, the probability shifts steadily toward Holloway.
Oliveira remains one of the most dangerous submission artists in UFC history. His path to victory is narrower, but explosive.
His win conditions:
Submission off scrambles
Opportunistic back takes
Hurt-to-finish sequences early
Capitalizing on aggressive exchanges
Oliveira rarely fights cautiously. His style creates volatility, which is exactly why submission props and early-round angles hold betting value despite Holloway’s favorite status.
If he secures control in the first 10 minutes, this fight changes dramatically. If not, the window narrows as Holloway’s pace builds.
This matchup creates a clear structural betting question:
Can Oliveira secure a finish early?
If yes, submission props hold value.
If not, Holloway’s volume and cardio become increasingly decisive.
Important trends:
Holloway has never been knocked out.
Oliveira’s losses often come when extended into deeper waters.
Five-round fights favor conditioning and output fighters.
That combination makes round totals and decision props particularly appealing.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Holloway’s durability and five-round experience make it difficult to see this ending quickly unless Oliveira lands a clean submission early. If the fight gets past Round 2, the pace should slow into a measured, high-volume striking battle.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
This aligns with Holloway’s typical path to victory. The risk is Oliveira’s early submission threat, but if Holloway survives the opening rounds, this becomes increasingly likely.
Confidence: ⭐⭐☆☆☆
This is a higher-risk, higher-reward play. If Oliveira wins, a submission is the most probable method, but his window to secure it may be limited to the first two rounds.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Safer than props, but the price reduces value. Better used in parlays than as a standalone bet at heavy juice.
If you’re playing one angle, the Over 3.5 rounds offers the cleanest structural logic.
Oliveira backers should target submission props, while Holloway supporters gain better value through the decision line rather than laying heavy juice on the moneyline.
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Oliveira’s submission threat is real - and dangerous early. But over 25 minutes, Holloway’s pace, volume, and durability should take over. If he avoids extended grappling exchanges in the first two rounds, the fight likely settles into a rhythm that favors him.
From a betting perspective:
The total and decision props provide stronger value than the straight favorite moneyline.
Oliveira remains a viable underdog only if you’re targeting a submission-specific play.
UFC 326 presents a compelling stylistic clash, and for bettors, identifying the correct path to victory is more important than simply picking the winner.
If you’re planning to wager on the card, compare the latest lines and bonuses at our best UFC sportsbooks before placing your bets.
UFC 326 takes place on March 7, 2026, in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features Max Holloway defending the BMF title against Charles Oliveira.
Max Holloway is the betting favorite, typically priced between -170 and -190 at most sportsbooks. Charles Oliveira enters as the underdog at around +145 to +165.
Yes. Holloway and Oliveira first met in 2015. Their rematch at UFC 326 comes more than a decade later, with both fighters now former champions and far more experienced.
From a structural standpoint, the Over 3.5 rounds offers the cleanest logic given Holloway’s durability and five-round experience. Bettors backing Oliveira may find better value targeting submission props rather than the straight moneyline.
The BMF (Baddest Mother F****r) title is a symbolic UFC belt introduced for high-profile matchups between elite, fan-favorite fighters. It is not tied to a specific weight class but carries promotional prestige.
UFC 326 odds are available at major regulated sportsbooks. Always compare prices before placing a bet to ensure you’re getting the best value on moneylines and props.
