🗓️ Date: Friday, 19 December 2025 📍 Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida 📺 Broadcast: Available globally on Netflix (no PPV fee) ⚖️ Weight Class: Heavyweight bout ⏱️ Rounds: 8 rounds, 3 minutes each 🥊 Gloves: 10 oz 💵 Odds to Win: Jake Paul (+750) vs Anthony Joshua (-1000) |
The boxing world is set for one of the most polarising showdowns in recent memory as YouTube-star-turned-boxer Jake Paul steps into the ring against former unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua.
Scheduled for December 19, 2025, the fight which is being officially billed as ‘Judgement Day’, has captured global attention; not only for its unique crossover appeal, but also for the enormous competitive gulf many believe separates the two men.
Though shorter than a typical 12-round heavyweight fight, the bout is fully sanctioned and treated as a legitimate professional contest, not an exhibition.
Can Jake Paul shock the world again, or will Anthony Joshua reassert himself as one of boxing’s premier heavyweights? Let’s find out.
Jake Paul has transformed himself from internet celebrity to professional boxer, compiling a 12-1 record against a mixture of former MMA champions, veteran boxers, and entertainers.
While he has beaten every opponent placed in front of him since his sole loss, this matchup is a massive step up and his first fight against an elite, natural heavyweight.
Paul enters the bout younger, faster, and significantly lighter, hoping mobility and explosiveness can offset the experience gap.
A two-time unified world heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medallist, Anthony Joshua remains one of the sport’s biggest global stars. However, he is coming off a devastating knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024 and has spent over a year away from the ring.
A contractual stipulation limits Joshua to 245 lbs, believed to be an attempt to narrow the physical disparity. But AJ has revealed he is already comfortably under the cap and feeling sharper than ever.
For Joshua, this is a must-win fight. Promoter Eddie Hearn has openly stated that another loss could end Joshua’s run at the top level.
Jake Paul | Vs Heavyweight Bout | Anthony Joshua |
76 inches | Reach Advantage Joshua (+6") | 82 inches |
6' 1" | Height Advantage Joshua (+5") | 6' 6" |
Unlimited (Exp. ~225 lbs) | Weight Advantage Joshua (+20 lbs) | Capped at 245 lbs |
28 | Age Advanta Paul (-8 yrs) | 36 |
Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
12–1 (7 KOs)* | Record Advantage Joshua (Experience) | 28–4 (25 KOs) |
54% | KO Ratio Advantage Joshua (Power) | 78% |
The fight materialised after Jake Paul’s planned matchup with Gervonta “Tank” Davis collapsed due to legal issues involving Davis. Paul’s team pivoted quickly and landed the biggest fight of his career by far.
Anthony Joshua, meanwhile, is attempting to rebuild his career after a knockout loss to Dubois derailed his resurgence. Many believe Joshua is fighting for legitimacy, in some ways every bit as much as Paul is.
The size difference, experience gap, and unusual crossover dynamic have generated massive media buzz, with some calling the fight a spectacle, and others calling it dangerously mismatched.
For Joshua, the stakes are enormous. A loss here to a much less experienced opponent from outside the boxing establishment would be devastating for his standing in the heavyweight division. It would signal that his days of competing for world titles are likely over and raise serious questions about form, motivation, and longevity.
A win, however, stabilises his career and reopens the path toward major fights in 2026.
For Jake Paul, the future is almost the opposite. A loss, especially a respectable one, does very little damage to his trajectory. He remains a major draw with limitless crossover appeal. But an upset win would transform his boxing identity overnight.
If Paul causes an upset and beats AJ, it would propel him from curiosity to real contender and force even his harshest critics to acknowledge his legitimacy. No single fight in his career has carried this much potential upside.
Boxing experts overwhelmingly predict a Joshua stoppage within 3–5 rounds. That’s something that the best boxing sportsbooks agree on as well.
Let’s dig into the reasons why AJ is such a strong favorite:
1. Experience Gap: Joshua has fought world champions and elite contenders. Paul has never faced a top-20 heavyweight.
2. Power Difference: Joshua is one of the most dangerous punchers of the last decade.
Paul has been hurt by much smaller opponents.
3. Size & Physicality: Even slimmed down, Joshua is stronger, bigger, and more durable.
4. Technical Skill: AJ’s jab, combinations, and ring IQ are miles ahead of Paul’s.
5. Weight Cap Factor: The 245 lb cap may actually benefit Joshua, who is traditionally faster and more fluid at lighter weights. His recent weigh-in around 243.8 lbs suggests he will be quick, conditioned, and sharp.
Can it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No. Most experts give Paul a 10-15% chance at best. But despite massive odds, Paul does have a narrow path to victory.
Here’s how he could do it:
1. Early Counter Right Hand: Joshua has been stopped before, and questions about his “chin” and mental resilience persist.
2. Survive the Early Storm: If Jake can drag Joshua past Round 4, nerves may shift.
3. Speed Advantage: At around 225 lbs, Paul may be quicker than Joshua expects.
4. Confident, Unpredictable Style: Paul is awkward, unorthodox, and often benefits from opponents underestimating him.
The market reflects what the boxing community expects: Joshua should win comfortably unless he is psychologically damaged from his last loss or Paul lands a miracle shot.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook are:
(Implied odds 91%)
By KO, TKO, or DQ: -500
(Implied odds 83%)
By Decision: +600
(Implied odds 14%)
(Implied odds: 12%)
By KO, TKO, or DQ: +950
(Implied odds 10%)
By Decision: +2500
(Implied odds 4%)
To view the full list of available wagers and place a bet, head over to BetMGM. Use our exclusive promo code NYSB1500 to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
Unless Joshua is completely compromised from his previous loss, his jab alone should control the pace. Once he finds his distance, the size, power, and technique gap will almost certainly overwhelm Jake Paul.
A Paul win would be one of the biggest upsets in modern boxing history, but that’s part of what makes this fight compelling.
Backing Joshua to win outright is the most straightforward and reliable bet because the gap in experience, skill, and physicality is so great. Joshua has spent years competing against world-class heavyweights, while Paul has yet to face anyone close to that level.
Even if Joshua fights cautiously or takes his time, his ring IQ and fundamental boxing ability should be enough to secure a clear victory. The moneyline reflects the expectation that this is Joshua’s fight to lose.
The most predicted outcome by analysts, and a sensible pick because a Joshua stoppage offers the strongest blend of probability and payout.
AJ remains one of the division’s biggest punchers, and his knockout record speaks for itself. Paul has shown resilience, but he’s also been hurt by much smaller men, which raises real questions about how he’ll cope with a true heavyweight’s power. Stylistically, Joshua’s jab and size advantages almost force the fight toward a stoppage unless he chooses to hold back.
Early-round betting has strong value because Joshua typically starts fast when he senses a mismatch. Against smaller or less experienced opponents, he establishes range quickly and applies pressure before they can settle into the fight.
If Paul struggles with Joshua’s jab early, which many expect, there’s a real possibility the fight ends before the midpoint. It’s a riskier option, but the reward reflects that.
While realistically we’d argue against betting on Paul, some odds might make these bets worth a look, particularly if you’re looking to hedge your picks:
Paul to Last the Distance: If you’re looking for longshot value, Paul lasting all eight rounds is more realistic than him winning outright. Joshua has been cautious in recent fights and may approach this one methodically. The shorter distance (eight rounds instead of twelve) also helps Paul’s chances of surviving to the final bell.
Paul by Decision: Paul winning by decision is extremely unlikely, but not impossible. He would need to stay elusive, avoid big shots, and outwork a hesitant Joshua. It’s the kind of bet you take only for the payout, not the probability.
Paul by K.O: Paul by knockout is the biggest red flag on the board. Joshua has only been stopped by elite heavyweights, and Paul’s power, especially at a much higher weight division, remains untested.
Over 6.5 Rounds: Likewise, betting the fight to go beyond 6.5 rounds is risky, as Joshua’s power and size advantage could produce an early finish if he decides to press the action.
Exact contract details haven’t been made public, but multiple reports suggest this fight will deliver one of the biggest paydays of both fighters’ careers. The most widely circulated figure puts the total purse at around $184 million, which would give Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua roughly $92 million each if split evenly.
Some outlets estimate a lower (but still massive) guaranteed payout of about $50 million per fighter, with the rest coming from bonuses, sponsorships, and Netflix’s global streaming performance. Because the event isn’t a traditional pay-per-view, both fighters are believed to have negotiated unique compensation tied to Netflix’s worldwide reach.
These numbers remain speculative, but even the conservative estimates make this one of the richest non-title heavyweight fights ever staged.
As fight night gets closer, there’s plenty for fans to debate. Questions about how the matchup will play out, what it means for each fighter, and how it could impact the sport are all adding extra buzz to an already massive event. Here’s a closer look at the storylines everyone’s talking about.
This is the central question framing the entire fight. Paul has shown toughness in previous bouts, but nothing he’s experienced so far compares to standing across from a natural heavyweight with Joshua’s pedigree.
Joshua’s power is not theoretical and it has stopped world-class fighters and changed the course of heavyweight title fights. For Paul, survival is not just about avoiding clean power shots; it’s about managing distance, coping with Joshua’s jab, and not letting the physical pressure break him down mentally.
If Paul can remain composed, avoid early damage, and extend the fight into the later rounds, he will earn credibility even in defeat. But surviving those opening exchanges is a challenge few expect him to overcome.
The weight limit placed on Joshua was designed to reduce the size discrepancy, but the effect may be the opposite of what Paul’s team intended. Joshua has historically performed better when he is leaner, faster, and more agile. Those are all things that tend to happen when his weight is in the low-240s.
By coming in lighter, Joshua may actually be more dangerous, not less. Meanwhile, Paul’s need to bulk up to roughly 225 lbs introduces questions about whether the extra weight will slow him down or affect his stamina.
The cap narrows the official numbers, but the true difference in natural size and functional strength remains firmly in Joshua’s favour.
The event is a test case for boxing’s evolving identity. With Netflix broadcasting globally and two massively different audiences merging, the fight represents a shift toward hybrid entertainment-combat events.
Traditionalists argue that matchups like this dilute boxing’s competitive integrity, while supporters believe they inject new life into a sport that has long struggled with exposure and mainstream appeal.
If the fight delivers drama, competitiveness, or even a shocking upset, it could accelerate the trend of crossover bouts becoming centrepieces of major boxing cards. If it ends in a one-sided blowout, it may reinforce the belief that certain boundaries shouldn’t be crossed.
Either way, the ripple effects will be felt far beyond the ring.
Here are the major bouts scheduled under the main event:
Super-featherweight, 6 rounds. Harvey is a decorated amateur (world champ & Olympian), making this a major opportunity for him on a high-visibility platform.
Women’s Super-featherweight title fight (WBA/IBF/WBO belts), 12 rounds. A genuine world title fight giving the undercard serious legitimacy.
Cruiserweight, 6 rounds. A crossover bout featuring former MMA stars, which has become one of the most talked-about supporting fights because of their names and histories.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua is set to be a cultural event, a test of credibility, and possibly a career-defining moment for both men.
For Joshua, it represents a moment of recalibration, a chance to reassert his place in the heavyweight landscape after a turbulent stretch in his career. For Paul, it’s the boldest step yet in a journey few predicted would go this far, a leap from novelty act to a man willingly facing one of the most imposing figures of his generation.
What makes this fight so compelling isn’t just the question of who wins, but what the outcome signifies. A dominant Joshua performance would restore a sense of order in the sport, reaffirming the gap between accomplished champions and celebrity newcomers.
But if Paul manages to compete, or even pull off the unthinkable, it would force the boxing world to confront a new reality where star power and unconventional pathways can disrupt long-standing hierarchies.
Regardless of how the action unfolds, the event itself signals a shift in how major fights are built, marketed, and consumed.
With Netflix stepping into the arena, and millions of fans from completely different spheres tuning in, the sport is continuing to move into fresh territory. It builds on what we saw when Paul fought Mike Tyson in 2024, which was the most streamed sporting event in history with 108 million viewers.
Boxing purists and new-age fans may not agree on what this fight represents, but they’ll be watching the same thing on December 19: a moment that could influence the sport’s trajectory for years to come.
The fight takes place on Friday, 19 December 2025, at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.
The exact ring-walk time will be confirmed during fight week, but main events at the Kaseya Center typically begin between 10:00–11:00 PM ET.
The entire event streams globally on Netflix, included with all standard subscriptions, meaning no pay-per-view purchase is required.
Yes. The fight is fully sanctioned as a professional heavyweight match, scheduled for 8 rounds, with 10-oz gloves.
A contractual stipulation requires Joshua to weigh no more than 245 lbs, designed to reduce the size discrepancy between the fighters. Joshua has said he is already comfortably under the limit.
Paul is expected to weigh around 225 lbs, having bulked up from cruiserweight to compete as a heavyweight.
Anthony Joshua is the overwhelming favourite according to bookmakers, analysts, and former fighters. His size, experience, and knockout power make him a heavy favourite.
It’s unlikely, but not impossible.
The favourite betting play is Joshua by KO/TKO, especially in the early rounds (1–4).
Yes. The event features world champion Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin, a high-profile crossover bout in Anderson Silva vs Tyron Woodley, and Rising U.S. Olympian Jahmal Harvey vs Kevin Cervantes
