Jake Paul and Tommy Fury will finally go at it on February 26. The hotly anticipated (and on/off) fight takes place in Saudi Arabia and will go a long way to settle the cruiserweight pair’s long-standing out-of-the-ring differences. This time it’s under the lights and is one of the most eagerly awaited events of the year.
Much has happened and much said since Paul vs Fury was first scheduled to take place in 2021. Fury pulled out of the pre-fight press conference for this one, citing a “private matter”. That only heightened Paul’s hostility towards his foe, calling the Brit a “flake” and that the fight should be tagged as “The Truth” in anticipation of Fury being exposed in the ring.
The overheated (and sometimes bizarre) hype around the fight has meant the odds of Jake Paul winning continue to fall with lines having moved considerably. Paul was actually the early underdog when the odds were released ahead of the first scheduled bout.
However, the “Problem Child” has scored victories against an upwardly impressive cast of opponents while waiting for Fury to finally show. Paul’s unanimous points win against Anderson Silva last October was the YouTuber’s most notable yet. Meanwhile, Fury hasn’t fought since April 2022. That was against wide underdog Daniel Bocianski, a contest in which Fury was brutal in knocking out the Pole in just one minute and two seconds.
Boxing betting fans will now find Jake Paul listed as the favorite at around -200 (60% implied chance) and Tommy Fury standing somewhere near the +160 mark (38.5% implied chance). With likely volatile betting markets right up until the first bell, line shopping will be a good tactic for this fight as only recently Paul was being offered at -225 and Fury at +185.
Jake Paul has quickly come to dominate the influencer boxer sphere and is undefeated in his six fights, though his first in 2020 was an amateur contest. Wins since have all been against UFC fighters. The 6’ 1” Cleveland Ohio native has a reach of 193 cm and fights with an orthodox right-hand stance. The “Problem Child” has a vicious jab but can expose himself to big counters too often.
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Tommy Fury also has an unbeaten fight record with eight wins under his belt. The 23-year-old, nicknamed “TNT”, made his debut in 2018. 183 cm tall, Fury’s reach extends to 203 cm. Fury’s strengths include a swift uppercut and excellent hooks, though he can lose concentration in defense.
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The expert consensus on who will win between Fury and Paul favors the latter. Dig into those fight record stats above and it’s fair to say that Paul’s opponents have been a higher caliber than Fury’s. That said, Jake Paul has also been criticized for having never faced a “proper” boxer.
The betting odds for the bout only underline the pre-fight verdict that there will be one winner - and it won’t be the British reality TV star. Yet that belief isn’t entirely widespread among boxing pundits.
Speaking to Mega Casino, former two-weight world champion Ricky Hatton believes it will be a close fight between the pair, saying “I think it is probably a 50/50, to be honest with you”. The Hitman went on to cite that Paul has completed more rounds of late but that Fury is a purer boxer than his YouTuber opponent.
UFC star Tom Aspinall shares that view telling OLBG, “It's a 50-50 fight between Jake Paul and Tommy Fury.” Referencing a recent conversation with Tommy’s brother Roman, the sixth-ranked UFC heavyweight in the world followed with, “he said something has switched in him
Elsewhere, two-time WBC super-middleweight champion David Benavidez reckons it will be an uneven contest, telling ES News: “I think Jake Paul knocks him
In reality, it’s almost too difficult to call given the huge unknown factors. If we had to pick a bet, we’d go for Jake Paul via Decision. Look for odds of -175 or better on that.
The Paul vs Fury fight is slotted for February 26. It’s perfectly scheduled for New Yorkers to watch via ESPN PPV on a Sunday afternoon. The undercard is likely to start at 2 pm ET and the main event at 5 pm ET.
Jake Paul and Tommy Fury will battle it out at the Dirayah Arena on the outskirts of the Saudi capital city Riyadh. The open-air stadium holds 15,000 spectators and has previously been the setting for the 2019 fight between Andy Ruiz Jr. and Anthony Joshua II.
Fury and Paul have long been adversaries but the pair have never fought before with two previous cancellations. Fury withdrew from the first planned bout in December 2021 citing injury and illness. The second fight scheduled for the summer of 2022 was also pulled when Fury was denied access to the US due to visa issues.
The most popular bet types for wagering on the Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury fight are:
The moneyline - a bet on who will win. Say you favor Paul, a $100 wager at odds of -200 returns a profit of $50.
Round betting - for a healthier hit for your money, you can wager on who will win and in which round they’ll KO their opponent. For example, Tyson Fury reckons his brother Tommy will stop Jake Paul in a late round. You’ll get odds of around +2,800 for Fury to do so in the sixth or seventh round.
Over/under - this is a wager on whether the number of rounds will be fewer or greater than a number set by the sportsbook. Over 6.5 rounds looks a good bet with odds offered at roughly +110 and a stake of $100 would net a total payout of $220.
Method of victory - there are numerous ways a boxer can win a match, including a KO (the fighter is conscious but unable to continue) and TKO (unconscious). For Jake Paul to win by either a KO or TKO, the odds are around +300 which offers better value than the moneyline.
The undercard before the main event has Ilunga Makabu vs Badou Jack – for the WBC cruiserweight title, Ashton Sylve vs Maxwell Awuku, and Ziyad Almaayouf vs an opponent still to be announced.
Sportsbooks will offer betting markets right up to the pre-fight walkaround and the best New York betting sites will also have live wagering options as the bout is underway.