Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier - Odds, Tips & Predictions for UFC 302

Makhachev vs Poirier
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 23. May 2024.

UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will defend his belt against No. 4-ranked Dustin Poirier in the main event at UFC 302. The five-round title fight will occur on Saturday, June 1, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

Makhachev (25-1) is riding a 13-fight win streak and successfully retained his title twice against Alexander Volkanovski. The reigning champion captured the vacant lightweight championship in 2022 with a second-round submission win over Oliveira at UFC 280.

Poirier (30-8) rebounded from a knockout loss to Justin Gaethje last year with a spectacular knockout win against Benoît Saint-Denis at UFC 299 in March. The veteran fighter is a potent puncher who has tallied knockouts in three of his last four wins.

In the co-main event, former middleweight champion Sean Strickland (28-6) will butt heads with Paulo Costa (14-3) in a five-round, non-title affair.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Odds

Makhachev (-450) is the favorite to retain his lightweight belt against Poirier (+325), per BetMGM sportsbook. The champion is a skilled striker and grappler whose 25 career wins include five knockouts and 11 submissions. Poirier possesses heavy hands and has racked up 15 career knockouts. But the challenger has also lost six fights via knockout or submission. If you're looking to place bets on upcoming UFC matches, you can check out some of the best UFC betting sites available.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Predictions

Makhachev is a well-rounded fighter with elite striking and grappling skills. The Russian has finished 44% of his fights with submission, and 20% via a knockout. 

The 32-year-old lands 2.46 significant strikes per minute with an effective 60% striking accuracy. The champion averages 3.17 takedowns per 15 minutes with an impressive 60% takedown accuracy. 

Makhachev also boasts an incredible 90% takedown defense.

Poirier is a gifted striker who is one of the hardest punchers in the lightweight division. The American has ended 53% of his fights via knockout, and 23% via submission or decision.

The 35-year-old lands 5.45 significant strikes per minute with a 51% striking accuracy. The challenger averages only 1.33 takedowns and is successful on just 36% of his takedown attempts. Poirier's takedown defense is also lacking with 63% of opponents' takedowns effectively defended.

Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira has fought both fighters and believes Makhachev will prevail over the hard-hitting challenger.

"In reality, we're talking about MMA. MMA is unpredictable. You know that anything can happen, right?" Oliveira told Full Violence. "But, we're talking about the style game, a guy who's a puncher, who has a hard hand. who has a very nested boxing style which is Dustin Poirier against , who's been evolving on the feet, but his strength is wrestling, sambo.

"I think the fight is more on Islam's side of taking him down, smothering him. But, we're talking about Dustin Poirier, a guy who's also enlightened. A guy who punches hard, right? So, we're talking about MMA, it's complicated. But, I think Islam will stay champion."

For those looking to wager on the potential outcomes of this fight, legal New York betting sites offer up-to-date odds and betting options. It’s important to consider various UFC statistics to make an informed choice.

Betting Pick: Makhachev

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Tips

Betting odds for this lightweight championship fight are live on popular sportsbooks, including BetMGM, which has listed Makhachev as a -450 favorite. The most common bet type for this UFC fight is the moneyline, a wager on who will win the fight outright. 

Considering how the champion is riding a 13-fight winning streak and has not tasted defeat since 2015, Makhachev is a heavy favorite to defend his belt successfully. Although Poirier has dropped two of his previous four fights, the challenger is a dangerous fighter who has tallied wins over Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. However, Makhachev is our pick to win the fight, and a $100 wager on the champion at odds of -450 would net a total payout of $122.22.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given that six of Makhachev's last seven fights have been decided by submission or knockout, we do not expect the fight to go the distance. Thus, betting Under 3.5 rounds could be a winning pick.

When and Where is the Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Fight?

The five-round lightweight championship fight will take place on Saturday, June 1, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. UFC fans in New York can watch the fight live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.   

UFC 302

UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev is the heavy favorite to retain his title against No. 4-ranked Dustin Poirier at UFC 302. Makhachev is a -450 betting favorite, while Poirier is the +325 underdog, per BetMGM.

Former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland (28-6) will battle Paulo Costa (14-3) in a five-round, co-main event. Randy Brown (18-5) and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-1) will collide in a welterweight matchup, while middleweights Cesar Almeida (5-0) and Roman Kopylov (12-3) will tangle in an intriguing encounter. Other fights include a flyweight showdown between Hyunsung Park (9-0) and Andre Lima (8-0), a welterweight clash pitting Niko Price (15-7) against Alex Morono (24-9), and a heavyweight contest featuring No. 7-ranked Jailton Almedia (20-3) and No. 13-ranked Alexandr Romanov (17-2).

Bets can be placed during the fight as it is happening with live UFC odds that are constantly changing based on what's happening real-time inside the Octagon. The most popular types of in-play bettings are moneyline wagers representing the odds for who will win the fight outright. Other live betting types include the victory method and how long the fight will last.

Mixed martial arts fans can place various bets on this UFC lightweight championship fight at BetMGM sportsbook, a well-known and trusted betting site in New York.

Subscribe to our Newsletter

Let’s stay connected. Never miss a good news and betting offers in New York.

return to top