Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz - Odds, Tips & Predictions

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz
Published by NYSB Staff
Last Updated: 28. Jul 2023.

Former YouTuber Jake Paul will face former UFC and mixed martial arts fighter Nate Diaz in a highly-publicized boxing match on Saturday, August 5. The 10-round Cruiserweight bout will take place at the American Airlines Center in Dalla, Texas.

Paul (6-1-0) is coming off a split-decision loss to Tommy Fury earlier this year in Saudi Arabia. The internet personality has victories over a trio of MMA fighters, including Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley (twice), and Anderson Silva. 

Diaz (0-0-0) is making his boxing debut after 18 years in the UFC. The California native posted just five knockouts in 22 MMA victories and last won a fight via a knockout a decade ago with a TKO win against Gray Maynard.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Odds

Paul (-350) is a massive favorite to dispose of Diaz (+260), according to top sportsbooks such as BetMGM NY.

The social media superstar throws heavy punches and should overwhelm Diaz, who lacks the striking skills to pull off the upset. 

Paul has significant deficiencies in his footwork and defensive techniques but should have no problem notching a knockout win, which is reflected at most New York boxing betting markets.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Betting Predictions

Paul is a brawler who is most effective when using the jab to set up his combinations and power punches. The Ohio native is an aggressive fighter who prefers to unleash a flurry of punches while keeping relentless pressure on opponents, and is one of the most successful YouTubers to cross over into boxing.

A major weakness for the 26-year-old is his habit of dropping his hands while moving and throwing punches. Fortunately, Paul has not faced an opponent who could capitalize on his poor defensive techniques.

British sports promoter Eddie Hearn also gives the advantage to Paul since he is a professional boxer with more ring experience.

"If you're asking me, I think Jake Paul beats him (Diaz) comfortably, but you will know more about his boxing ability," Hearn said in an interview with Ariel Helwani. 

"I really hope Nate Diaz wins, and I really like Nate Diaz. I'm just saying that so if he sees me after this prediction, he doesn't put me to sleep, but I think he gets stopped."

Former UFC fighter Michael Bisping believes that Paul will knock out Diaz. Bisping feels that Paul will continue his undefeated streak against non-traditional boxing opponents.

"Jake Paul isn't looking for legitimate threats; he's looking for fights he can win," Bisping said. "But they run a risk with Diaz. He isn't a boxer, he's almost 40, and he's won some and lost some, but he's a massive name, and Paul's running a risk because Diaz might beat him on paper because Jake's bigger, younger, he's actually a boxer."

Although Diaz will be fighting in his maiden professional boxing match, a pair of UFC legends believe the veteran mixed martial arts fighter has an excellent chance to beat Paul.

"I fancy him for it, to be honest," former UFC champion Conor McGregor said of Diaz in an interview with MMA Mania. 

"The other cat (Jake Paul) is a bit windy. He's a donkey. The guy's a donkey, the other cat. But a donkey has a kick as well. You just have to be worried about that."

Another UFC legend, Anderson Silva, believes Diaz has a legitimate shot at beating Paul. Silva lost an eight-round unanimous decision to Paul last year.

"Jake has a good coach, and he's very smart. The fight is not about power, it's about timing, and both have good timing," Silva told Fight Hub TV. 

"Jake now has some good experience in boxing and is learning every day, but Nate is a beast! When you go to fight him, you need to prepare for war. I think he has more experience and is the favorite."

Betting Pick: Jake Paul

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Betting Tips

Betting odds for this controversial cruiserweight fight are live on New York's trusted sportsbooks, which have listed Paul as favorite with odds around -350.

Like betting on UFC, the most prevalent bet type for this boxing fight is the moneyline, betting on who will win the fight outright.

Given his experience, aggressive fighting style, and elite punching power, Paul is our pick. A $100 wager on Paul at odds of -350 would net a profit of approximately $28.57, for a total payout of $128.57.

The Over/Under bet is another popular type, where you wager on the number of rounds the fight will last. Given Paul's Knockout ability and Diaz's lackluster striking skills, this fight might not last long.

If we consider the lack of experience of Diaz and Paul's ridiculously heavy hands, we might expect the fight not to last three complete rounds. Thus, betting Under 3.5 rounds could be a winning pick.

When and Where is the Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz Fight?

Jake Paul will step into the ring for the eighth time against Nate Diaz, who will make his professional boxing debut. 

The 10-round bout is scheduled for Saturday, August 5, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Boxing fans in New York can watch the fight live on DAZN and FITE sports streaming services.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz FAQs

Social media personality and professional boxer Jake Paul is the favorite to defeat free-agent professional mixed martial artist Nate Diaz at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Most NY sportsbooks have Paul as a -350 betting favorite, while Diaz is the +260 underdog.

Undisputed Featherweight champion Amanda Serrano will battle Heather Hardy in a title showdown, while Welterweights Alan Sanchez and Angel Beltran will meet in an eight-round matchup. 

Chris Avila will face Jeremy Stephens in another Welterweight bout, and Shadasia Green will square off against Olivia Curry in a Super Middleweight affair. 

Other scheduled fights include Jose Aguayo vs. Noel Cavazos, Luciano Ramos vs. CJ Hamilton, and Kevin Newman II vs. Kilo Madera.

Live betting is available during the fight, but wagers can only be placed between rounds when the in-play betting odds are updated. Moneyline bets representing the odds for who will win the fight outright are the most popular type of betting for boxing. Other live betting types include "three-way" moneyline wagers and prop bets such as the method of victory, total rounds, points betting, and parlays.

Popular New York sportsbooks where boxing fans can place bets on this unconventional cruiserweight matchup include Bet MGM and PointsBet.

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