Fight Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Odds (via BetMGM): Max Holloway: -120 (favorite), Dustin Poirier: +100
Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway will complete their trilogy at UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, 2025, in New Orleans, headlining the card for the inaugural BMF title defense. With each man a fan favourite and former champion, this bout isn’t just about belts—it’s about legacy, closure, and violence.
Poirier leads the rivalry 2–0, having submitted Holloway in his UFC debut back in 2012 and then defeated him via unanimous decision in a classic five-round war at UFC 236 to claim the interim lightweight crown. But Holloway, now the reigning BMF titleholder after his KO of Justin Gaethje, enters the trilogy with renewed confidence, a sharper toolbox, and something to prove.
It’s a high-stakes clash between two of the UFC’s most durable warriors; both elite strikers, both known for their cardio, grit, and will to win. The first two meetings delivered fireworks. Expect nothing less in the third.
Current Moneyline Odds (via BetMGM sportsbook):
Max Holloway: -120 (favorite)
Dustin Poirier: EVEN
The odds reflect a closely contested matchup, with Holloway slightly favored due to his recent performances and the momentum of holding the BMF title. Poirier, however, remains a formidable opponent, especially with the motivation of ending his career on a high note.
Lightweight | ||
Max Holloway 26-8 | Vs | Dustin Poirier 30-9 |
33 | Age | 36 |
5’ 11” | Height | 5’ 9” |
155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
69” | Reach | 72” |
BMF Champion | UFC Ranking | #4 Lightweight |
This matchup presents a classic striker vs. striker scenario, with both fighters known for their volume and durability. While Poirier holds a slight reach advantage and brings sharp, technical boxing with proven knockout power, Holloway counters with a height edge, relentless pace, and legendary output. Expect a high-volume war where range control, cardio, and chin endurance will be tested from the opening bell.
This fight is a razor-close matchup between two elite veterans, but the edge leans slightly toward Holloway. Now competing more naturally at lightweight and coming off a highlight-reel knockout of Justin Gaethje to win the BMF belt, Holloway’s timing, shot selection, and ability to mix volume with precision look sharper than ever.
Poirier still carries the power advantage, and his 2–0 series lead can’t be ignored. But the miles are adding up. At 35, with a history of brutal wars, including a KO loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 302, Poirier may struggle to keep pace if this becomes another drawn-out battle. Holloway, by contrast, seems to be aging better, taking less damage recently and showcasing improved defense.
Unless Poirier lands a fight-changing left hand, Holloway’s pace, jab, and durability should edge him ahead across five rounds.
Holloway’s path to victory is built on relentless volume and elite cardio. He holds the UFC record for most significant strikes landed and has a rare ability to overwhelm opponents without overextending. In their last fight, Holloway was undersized but still surged late. Now, fighting at his natural weight, he could have the physical edge to match his skillset.
Holloway says: "The BMF title is cool and everything, and making history is great, but the main history I ain't trying to make is be a man who fought two different trilogies and went 0-3. I'm focused on going out there and getting my hand raised. Shout out to DP, 'The Diamond.' He's a beast, he's an animal, he's a legend. I know this is his last dance, but I've got to play the spoiler here. I need this one."
He also proved against Gaethje that he still has the chin, footwork, and power to hang with the division’s toughest hitters. If Holloway can keep the fight at range, pump the jab, and dial up the pressure in the championship rounds, he has a strong chance of outworking Poirier on the scorecards.
Paddy Pimblett, a fellow UFC lightweight, predicts a Holloway victory, citing the pressure on Poirier fighting in his hometown during his retirement bout. Pimblett stated:
“I think Holloway is motivated. I can see Holloway winning, to be honest. I don’t know why, I think it’s one of those things. Dustin’s fighting in his hometown, it’s his last fight. Everyone expects him to win. With the pressure, I think he might lose.”
Poirier’s left hand is still one of the most dangerous weapons at 155 pounds, and he’s already beaten Holloway twice. He’s the more natural lightweight, hits harder, and has a deeper submission arsenal.
To win here, Poirier needs to make it a gritty, close-quarters fight. If he can cut off the cage, target the body and legs, and force Holloway to trade in the pocket, his power advantage could swing the momentum early. He’s also crafty in scrambles and can threaten with submissions if the fight hits the mat.
"I'm going to lay my gloves down in Louisiana, where it all started for me. The journey started there," Poirier said in April. "Max is a legend. I said legends only. I couldn't think of a better guy to fight in my retirement fight. I was his first fight in the UFC in 2012, and he'll be my last fight in the UFC."
Even at this stage in his career, Poirier has the tools to shut the lights out with a single shot. If he draws Holloway into a firefight early, the trilogy could end with a definitive finish.
If you’re leaning toward the favorite, Holloway by decision offers value. He’s gone the distance in 9 of his last 11 fights and is known for his volume, control, and fight IQ. Given Poirier’s toughness and Holloway’s style — high output rather than single-shot KO power — this method lines up perfectly.
Prop: Holloway to win by decision
Odds Range: +120 to +160 (via BetMGM and top sportsbooks)
If Poirier wins, it’s likely by early finish. In their second meeting, he hurt Holloway repeatedly in close range. His boxing and inside power remain lethal, and in a retirement fight, he may push for a defining final statement. This is your high-risk/high-reward option.
Prop: Poirier to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1–2
Odds Range: +400 to +600
Holloway’s iron chin and Poirier’s grit make the full five rounds a solid neutral bet. Both fighters are historically durable, and neither has ever been submitted or truly broken late in fights.
Prop: Fight to go the distance
Odds Range: -140 to -180 depending on the book
Holloway is the high-floor pick; durability, cardio, and consistent output over five rounds. A decision win is both likely and reasonably priced.
Poirier is the high-ceiling gamble; a dangerous finisher who may pull off a vintage KO if he catches Holloway clean early.
For the latest lines and odds boosts, check out the best UFC betting sites and MMA books trusted by New York bettors.
UFC 318 takes place on Saturday, July 19, 2025.
The event will be held at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
As of the latest odds, Max Holloway is the slight favorite to win his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier at UFC 318. According to BetMGM, Holloway is listed at -120, while Poirier is at +100.
The main card for UFC 318, headlined by Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3, is as follows:
