Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett – Interim UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Co-Main Event: Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes – UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout
Broadcast: Paramount+
Odds:
Paddy Pimblett: –225 (favorite)
Justin Gaethje: +185 (underdog)
UFC 324 launches the UFC’s new broadcast era with one of the most polarizing main events in recent memory. Fan favorite Paddy Pimblett steps into his first title fight against former interim champion Justin Gaethje, with interim lightweight gold on the line. The winner is expected to move on to a title unification bout with undisputed champion Ilia Topuria later in the year.
What once looked like a showcase of experience versus hype has evolved into a true betting battleground. The market has flipped dramatically, with Pimblett now installed as the favorite — a reflection of stylistic concerns around Gaethje’s grappling defense and Pimblett’s ability to thrive in chaos.
Add in a historic women’s title fight between Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes, and UFC 324 shapes up as one of the most consequential cards of the year.
Current Moneyline Odds (via BetMGM), as of publication:
Paddy Pimblett: –225 (favorite)
Justin Gaethje: +185 (underdog)
The betting market has settled with Paddy Pimblett installed as a moderate favorite. His grappling advantage, submission upside, and age edge have driven consistent action in his direction, while Gaethje’s underdog price reflects concerns around defensive grappling and five-round durability.
Gaethje at +185 represents one of the most surprising underdog prices of his career. While his power and experience remain unquestioned, bettors appear concerned about his defensive lapses, age, and vulnerability to submissions against opportunistic grapplers.
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Lightweight – Main Event
Paddy Pimblett | Justin Gaethje | |
23–3–0 | Record | 26–5–0 |
31 | Age | 37 |
5′10″ | Height | 5′11″ |
155 lbs (Lightweight) | Weight | 155 lbs (Lightweight) |
73″ | Reach | 70″ |
5.19 | SLpM | 6.59 |
53% | Striking Accuracy | 58% |
28% | Takedown Accuracy | 14% |
50% | Takedown Defense | 68% |
#5 | UFC Ranking | #4 |
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The more this matchup is broken down, the clearer Pimblett’s path to victory becomes. Gaethje is still capable of ending fights instantly, something he proved emphatically at UFC 291, where he knocked out Dustin Poirier with a head kick. That version of Gaethje is always dangerous early, particularly against opponents willing to engage on the feet. The concern is sustainability. Gaethje’s most dominant moments tend to come early, while Pimblett’s clearest path emerges as fights become messy and grappling-heavy.
If Pimblett can survive the opening exchanges and force clinches or takedowns, the fight begins to tilt heavily in his favor. Gaethje has historically been vulnerable in extended grappling situations, and Pimblett’s opportunistic submission game is built to capitalize on fatigue and positional mistakes.
Over five rounds, Pimblett’s durability, size, and grappling control give him the more repeatable win condition, particularly as the fight moves into the middle and later rounds.
Pimblett’s advantages in this matchup are stylistic and situational:
Dangerous submission game in scrambles
Willingness to embrace chaos and pressure
Size and reach advantage at lightweight
Strong finishing instincts once fights hit the mat
Momentum and confidence entering the biggest fight of his career
Pimblett doesn’t need to dominate Gaethje on the feet. He needs one opening; a clinch, a takedown, or a scramble, and from there, his ability to transition and attack submissions becomes a serious problem.
Despite entering as the underdog, Gaethje’s path to victory is clear:
Elite knockout power and devastating leg kicks
Championship experience in five-round fights
Ability to overwhelm opponents early
One-shot finishing ability that changes fights instantly
If Gaethje can keep the fight standing and punish Pimblett before grappling exchanges develop, he has more than enough power to end the fight. An early or mid-round KO/TKO remains his most realistic route.
Opinion is split among MMA veterans and analysts ahead of the UFC 324 main event, with both fighters drawing support for very different reasons.
Former UFC and WEC champion Urijah Faber has leaned toward Justin Gaethje, citing his experience and comfort in high-pressure fights:
“I gotta go with Gaethje. He enjoys a knock-down, drag-out fight, and he’s got the wrestling to help negate some of Paddy’s strengths.” — Urijah Faber (via Sherdog)
On the other side, Michael Chandler, who has fought Gaethje and recently faced Pimblett, sees the matchup as far closer than many expect. Chandler has praised Gaethje’s versatility but warned against underestimating Pimblett’s evolution and confidence, suggesting the Liverpool native is “much better than people think.”
Meanwhile, Sam Patterson, a UFC welterweight and longtime training partner of Pimblett, has backed Paddy to win the fight, pointing to his composure, grappling instincts, and ability to capitalize when opponents overcommit. Speaking to talkSPORT, Patterson suggested that Pimblett’s comfort in chaotic situations and confidence on the mat give him a real edge against a fighter as aggressive as Gaethje.
Odds (via BetMGM): –225
With Pimblett now installed as the favorite, the moneyline reflects the market’s belief in his grappling edge and five-round durability. While not a bargain price, it aligns with the most consistent and repeatable win condition in this matchup.
Odds Range: –160 to –190
Both fighters are finishers with clearly defined paths to victory. Pimblett by submission or Gaethje by knockout are far more likely outcomes than a 25-minute decision, especially with interim title stakes adding urgency.
Prop Value: +175 to +250
This is the strongest Pimblett-specific prop on the board. Gaethje has been submitted before, and Pimblett excels at capitalizing on scrambles and fatigue-driven mistakes as fights progress.
Lean: Kayla Harrison by decision
Harrison’s size, strength, and clinch control should allow her to dictate where the fight takes place over five rounds, particularly following Amanda Nunes’ time away from competition. However, Nunes’ power keeps the early rounds dangerous.
Safer betting angle: Harrison moneyline or Harrison by decision.
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Interim Lightweight Title (Main Event): Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett
Women’s Bantamweight Title (Co-Main Event): Kayla Harrison (c) vs. Amanda Nunes
Bantamweight Bout: Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong
Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Featherweight Bout: Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
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UFC 324 takes place on Saturday, January 24, 2026.
The event will be held at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The main event is an interim UFC lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett.
Paddy Pimblett enters as the betting favorite at –225, with Justin Gaethje listed as the underdog at +185.
Bettors can compare odds and promotions across the best UFC sportsbooks, including BetMGM, FanDuel, Caesars, and Fanatics, all of which offer competitive UFC markets and prop bets.
The co-main event features a women’s bantamweight title fight between Kayla Harrison (c) and Amanda Nunes.
UFC 324 will stream live on Paramount+ as part of the UFC’s new broadcast agreement. No separate PPV purchase is required.
UFC 324 is the first numbered UFC event of the Paramount+ era, marking a major shift away from ESPN+ pay-per-view and introducing a new UFC broadcast model.
