Fight: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes 2
Division: Featherweight Championship
Event: UFC 325
Scheduled Rounds: 5
Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Main Card Start Time (New York): 10:00 PM ET (Prelims earlier)
Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
Broadcast: Paramount+
Odds (per BetMGM): Alexander Volkanovski: -170 (favorite), Diego Lopes: +130 (underdog)
UFC 325 delivers a massive featherweight title fight as part of a blockbuster two-week stretch for the UFC, following immediately on the heels of UFC 324. As Paramount+ begins its new era as the promotion’s U.S. broadcast partner, Alexander Volkanovski puts his featherweight title on the line against Diego Lopes in a highly anticipated rematch that anchors back-to-back marquee events. With championship stakes, contrasting styles, and betting value on both sides, this main event has quickly become one of the most talked-about fights on the early 2026 UFC calendar.
Fighter | Odds |
Alexander Volkanovski | -170 |
Diego Lopes | +130 |
Volkanovski enters as the betting favorite, while Lopes comes in as a live underdog with knockout and submission upside.
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Featherweight Main Event
Category | Alexander Volkanovski | Diego Lopes |
Age | 37 | 30 |
Height | 5’6” | 5’11” |
Reach | 71.5” | 74” |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 26–4 | 24–6 |
SLpM (Strikes Landed per Min) | ~6.1 | ~4.9 |
Striking Accuracy | ~57% | ~52% |
Takedown Accuracy | ~35% | ~38% |
Takedown Defense | ~70% | ~62% |
UFC Ranking (Featherweight) | #1 (Champion) | #2 |
Title Fight Experience | Multiple | First title rematch |
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Alexander Volkanovski to win by Unanimous Decision
This matchup is expected to be competitive early, but over five rounds, Volkanovski’s experience, composure, and ability to make mid-fight adjustments should once again be the difference.
Importantly, this is a rematch, and their first meeting at UFC 314, provides valuable insight into how this fight is likely to play out, especially from a betting perspective.
Volkanovski already showed in the first fight that he can neutralize Lopes’ early explosiveness and systematically take over rounds. His game is built for championship settings, where pacing and control matter just as much as damage.
Key advantages for Volkanovski:
Elite five-round cardio and championship experience
Strong takedown defense and clinch control
High fight IQ and tactical discipline
Proven ability to adjust after losing early moments
In their previous meeting, Volkanovski weathered early danger before turning the fight into a high-pace, technical battle that favored his consistency. If this fight reaches the later rounds again, Volkanovski’s path to victory becomes clearer with every minute.
From a betting standpoint, -170 reflects reliability, not dominance, making him a solid favorite rather than an overpriced one.
Diego Lopes remains a legitimate threat, particularly in the opening rounds. He brings size, power, and creativity, and he will likely push a faster pace early in hopes of changing the narrative from the first fight.
Paths to victory for Lopes:
Early knockout or knockdown
Catching Volkanovski during scrambles
Capitalizing on reach and size advantages
Forcing chaotic exchanges instead of long sequences
Lopes knows he cannot afford to give away rounds this time. Expect more urgency, more risk-taking, and a willingness to chase a finish. At +130, bettors are backing volatility, and in MMA, that always carries upside.
The concern remains cardio. If Lopes fails to secure a finish early, the fight once again swings heavily in Volkanovski’s favor.
Based on the matchup, odds, and fight dynamics, here are the top betting angles to consider at BetMGM
Odds: –170
Volkanovski enters UFC 325 as the favorite for good reason. He has already proven he can manage Diego Lopes’ early pressure, avoid prolonged danger, and consistently win rounds through volume and positional control.
While –170 isn’t a bargain price, it reflects the most reliable and repeatable win condition in this matchup, especially in a five-round title fight where experience and cardio tend to decide outcomes.
Odds Range: –140 to –170
Volkanovski’s durability, combined with Lopes’ toughness, makes a decision outcome very realistic. The champion rarely gets finished at featherweight, and if he succeeds in slowing the fight down after the opening rounds, the matchup naturally trends toward the scorecards.
This market also aligns closely with Volkanovski’s likely path to victory, offering a solid alternative for bettors seeking value beyond the straight moneyline.
Prop Value: +200 to +300
If you’re backing the underdog, method-of-victory markets are the sharper angle. Lopes’ clearest path to victory is an early knockout or submission before Volkanovski establishes rhythm and control.
At plus money, this prop reflects Lopes’ explosiveness and finishing upside while avoiding the need for him to win multiple rounds against a high-volume champion.
UFC Featherweight Championship: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes
Lightweight: Dan Hooker vs Benoît Saint Denis
Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy
Heavyweight: Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira
Lightweight: Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey
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UFC 325 is scheduled to take place on Saturday, January 31, 2026. Due to the event being held in Australia, some international viewers may see the main event air early on Sunday.
For viewers in New York, the UFC 325 main card is expected to begin at 10:00 PM ET, with prelims airing earlier in the evening. Exact start times may vary depending on fight length.
UFC 325 will be held at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, marking a major international title event for the promotion.
UFC 325 will stream live in the United States on Paramount+, the UFC’s primary broadcast partner for numbered events in 2026.
According to BetMGM Sportsbook, Alexander Volkanovski enters the fight as the favorite at -170, while Diego Lopes is listed as the underdog at +130.
Yes. Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes previously fought in a five-round title bout at UFC 314, where Volkanovski won by decision after controlling the pace for most of the fight.
Many bettors are backing Alexander Volkanovski on the moneyline due to his experience and five-round reliability. However, Lopes by finish is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward option given his power and submission ability.
