Fight Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Odds (via BetMGM): Dricus Du Plessis -240 (favorite), Kamaru Usman +195 (underdog)
Watch: Paramount+
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman headlines UFC Fight Night in one of the most compelling middleweight matchups of 2026. It pits the reigning UFC middleweight champion against one of the greatest welterweights in MMA history, as Usman moves up to 185 pounds in search of another championship run.
Du Plessis enters the bout in the prime of his career, having established himself as one of the division's most relentless and unpredictable fighters. His pressure, durability, and ability to find finishes from seemingly uncomfortable positions have made him one of the toughest challenges in the UFC. Across the Octagon stands Usman, a former long-reigning welterweight champion whose elite wrestling, championship experience, and tactical discipline have defined one of the most successful careers of the modern era.
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman takes place on July 18, 2026, at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Scheduled for five rounds as the evening's main event, the fight could have major implications for the middleweight title picture while giving Usman the opportunity to
| Dricus Du Plessis | Tale of the Tape | Kamaru Usman |
|---|---|---|
| 24-2 | Record | 22-5 |
| 32 | Age | 39 |
| 6'1" (185 cm) | Height | 6'0" (183 cm) |
| 76" (193 cm) | Reach | 76" (193 cm) |
| Middleweight | Division | Middleweight |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 9 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 11 | Submissions | 1 |
Our official prediction is Dricus Du Plessis to defeat Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision. While Usman's elite wrestling and championship experience should allow him to remain competitive throughout the fight, we believe Du Plessis' size, relentless pressure, improved takedown defense, and higher output over five rounds will be the difference.
Usman still possesses the skills to win rounds with his wrestling and control, but moving up to middleweight against one of the division's strongest and most durable champions presents an entirely different challenge. Du Plessis has consistently shown the ability to push a demanding pace while remaining dangerous from start to finish, making him the more reliable betting option.
Our Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis by Unanimous Decision
Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (8.5/10)
Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline
Value Bet: Fight to Go the Distance
Winner: Dricus Du Plessis
Method of Victory: Unanimous Decision
Confidence: ★★★★☆ (8.5/10)
Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline
Value Bet: Fight to Go the Distance
Dricus Du Plessis has established himself as one of the UFC's most complete middleweights by consistently finding ways to defeat elite opposition. While his style often appears unconventional, his relentless pressure, physical strength, durability, and ability to adapt during fights have made him one of the toughest challenges in the division.
His latest title defense against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 further reinforced that reputation. Facing one of the UFC's most dangerous grapplers and submission specialists, Du Plessis weathered the early storm before taking control as the fight progressed, once again proving he can make the right adjustments against elite competition.
Earlier this year, he successfully defended his belt against Sean Strickland in the UFC 312 main event, using constant pressure, superior output, and relentless pace to outwork one of the division's most durable and technically sound strikers over five rounds.
Before that, Du Plessis captured the middleweight title by defeating Israel Adesanya in the UFC 305 main event, announcing himself as the new king of the division with a statement victory over one of the greatest middleweights in UFC history.
Those performances tell the story of a champion who has already solved a variety of elite styles. He has beaten explosive finishers, elite strikers, world-class grapplers, and former champions, making him one of the most battle-tested fighters on the UFC roster. While Kamaru Usman presents another unique challenge with his championship wrestling pedigree and experience, Du Plessis enters this matchup with clear momentum and the confidence that comes from repeatedly delivering on the biggest stage.
Kamaru Usman may be entering the twilight of his career, but overlooking one of the greatest welterweights in UFC history would be a mistake. A former long-reigning champion with multiple title defenses, Usman built his legacy on relentless wrestling, elite cage control, outstanding cardio, and one of the highest fight IQs in mixed martial arts.
Although this marks his move up to the middleweight division, Usman has spent years competing against some of the sport's biggest names. His victories over Jorge Masvidal, Colby Covington, Gilbert Burns, and Leon Edwards showcased his ability to adapt to different styles while consistently executing disciplined game plans under championship pressure.
Even in recent years, Usman has remained highly competitive against elite opposition. His performance against Khamzat Chimaev demonstrated that his wrestling can still trouble world-class fighters, while his unanimous decision victory over Joaquin Buckley proved he remains capable of controlling fights over five rounds despite entering the later stages of his career.
The biggest question heading into this matchup is how well those strengths will translate against a naturally bigger middleweight champion. If Usman can establish his wrestling early, slow the pace, and force Du Plessis into prolonged grappling exchanges, he has a legitimate path to pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the year.
Keys to Victory
Du Plessis' clearest path to victory is to keep the fight at his preferred pace. By defending the early takedown attempts, forcing extended striking exchanges, and constantly pressuring Usman against the cage, he can take advantage of his size, power, and superior output. If the fight reaches the championship rounds, his relentless pressure and physicality should become even more difficult for Usman to handle.
How Kamaru Usman Wins
Usman must turn this into a tactical fight rather than a firefight. Consistent takedowns, effective cage control, and disciplined top pressure are likely his best route to victory. If he can slow Du Plessis' offense, win the early rounds with wrestling, and avoid prolonged striking exchanges, he has the experience and fight IQ to pull off the upset.
🥇 Can Usman's Wrestling Hold Up at 185?
Usman's wrestling has been the foundation of his championship career, but consistently controlling a naturally bigger and stronger middleweight is a completely different challenge. If he can't secure early takedowns, the fight is likely to be contested on Du Plessis' terms.
🥊 Championship Pace
Du Plessis has repeatedly shown he can maintain an aggressive pace over five rounds. If the fight reaches the later stages, his pressure, volume, and physicality could become decisive.
💥 Who Wins the Physical Battle?
This is Usman's first real test against an elite middleweight contender. Whether he can match Du Plessis' size, strength, and durability may ultimately determine the outcome.
🧠 Championship Experience
While Du Plessis is in his prime, Usman has spent years competing in high-pressure title fights. If he can dictate the tempo and force a tactical contest, his experience could keep the fight much closer than the odds suggest.
🥇 Best Bet: Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline
Dricus Du Plessis moneyline stands out as our favorite wager for this fight. While Kamaru Usman remains one of the most accomplished champions in UFC history, Du Plessis enters with clear advantages in age, size, physicality, and recent form. His relentless pace, improved takedown defense, and ability to maintain pressure over five rounds make him the more complete betting option in this matchup.
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💰 Value Bet: Dricus Du Plessis by Decision
If you believe Usman's durability and championship experience allow him to survive all five rounds, Du Plessis by decision offers significantly better value than the straight moneyline. Caesars Sportsbook is often one of the best places to compare method of victory, round betting, and fight props, making it worth checking before placing your wager.
🎯 Longshot Bet: Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO in Rounds 4-5
If Usman's wrestling begins to fade and Du Plessis is able to maintain his trademark pressure into the championship rounds, a late stoppage becomes a realistic possibility. Rather than chasing an early knockout, the South African champion is more likely to break Usman down over time with volume, body work, and relentless forward pressure. This prop carries considerably higher odds than the moneyline while remaining consistent with our overall fight prediction.
As fight night approaches, sportsbooks continue to adjust the betting lines based on public action, expert predictions, and market movement. At the time of writing, Dricus Du Plessis enters as the betting favorite, while former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman is listed as the underdog.
| Bet Type | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dricus Du Plessis | -240 |
| Moneyline | Kamaru Usman | +195 |
| Fight Goes the Distance | Yes | TBD |
| Fight Goes the Distance | No | TBD |
| Method of Victory | Du Plessis by Decision | TBD |
| Method of Victory | Du Plessis by KO/TKO | TBD |
| Method of Victory | Usman by Decision | TBD |
| Method of Victory | Usman by KO/TKO | TBD |
Odds are subject to change as fight night approaches. Always compare prices across multiple sportsbooks before placing your wager to ensure you're getting the best available value.
Round 1:
Expect a measured start as both fighters look to establish their preferred range. Usman will likely test Du Plessis with early takedown attempts and clinch exchanges, while the champion focuses on maintaining distance, pressuring forward, and making Usman work every second of the round.
Rounds 2-3:
As the fight settles in, Du Plessis should begin increasing his output and forcing a faster pace. If Usman struggles to consistently secure takedowns, the striking exchanges are likely to favor the naturally bigger middleweight, whose pressure and physicality become increasingly difficult to deal with.
Championship Rounds:
The final two rounds could ultimately decide the fight. Du Plessis has repeatedly shown the ability to maintain a high work rate deep into five-round contests, while Usman may find it increasingly difficult to control the action against a larger, younger opponent. If the fight reaches this stage, expect Du Plessis to dictate the tempo and separate himself on the scorecards.
Final Prediction:
We expect a competitive fight early before Du Plessis gradually takes control through superior pace, size, and sustained pressure. Usman's championship experience should keep him competitive, but over twenty-five minutes, the middleweight champion has more paths to victory. Our official prediction remains Dricus Du Plessis by unanimous decision.
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Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis by Decision
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Our quick picks are based on stylistic matchups, recent performances, and overall betting value. While MMA remains one of the most unpredictable sports, these are the fights we believe offer the strongest betting angles on the card.
Dricus Du Plessis enters UFC Fight Night 281 as the deserved favorite for good reason. His youth, size, relentless pressure, and proven success against elite middleweights give him multiple paths to victory against one of the greatest welterweights in UFC history. While Kamaru Usman's wrestling and championship experience make him a dangerous opponent, we believe Du Plessis' pace and physical advantages will ultimately prove decisive over five rounds.
Our official prediction remains Dricus Du Plessis by unanimous decision, with the moneyline standing out as our favorite bet on the card.
Dricus Du Plessis enters UFC Fight Night 281 as the betting favorite, with most sportsbooks listing the reigning middleweight champion at around -240, while Kamaru Usman is available as the underdog.
Our favorite wager is Dricus Du Plessis Moneyline. We believe his size, pressure, and five-round cardio give him the highest probability of winning.
Usman's best path to victory is through consistent wrestling, cage control, and winning the early rounds. Slowing the pace and avoiding prolonged striking exchanges will be crucial if he hopes to upset the champion.
It is a realistic outcome. Usman's durability and championship experience could help extend the fight, making a decision victory for Du Plessis one of the most likely scenarios.
UFC Fight Night 281 takes place on Saturday, July 18, 2026, at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma and will be streamed live on Paramount+.
