Jake Paul vs. Julio César Chávez Jr. - Odds, Predictions & Betting Tips

Fight Date: Saturday, June 28, 2025

Venue: Honda Center in Anaheim, California

Odds: Jake Paul (-700) - Julio César Chávez Jr. (+450)

Jake Paul returns to the ring on Saturday, June 28, 2025, facing former WBC middleweight champion Julio César Chávez Jr. at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. This 10-round cruiserweight bout will be broadcast live on DAZN Pay-Per-View, with the main event ring walks expected around 11:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM PT.

Paul (11-1, 7 KOs) aims to solidify his status in the boxing world, while Chávez Jr. (54-6-1, 34 KOs) seeks to reclaim past glory. Despite Chávez Jr.'s experience, Paul enters as the betting favorite, reflecting his recent activity and momentum in the sport.

Jake Paul vs. Julio César Chávez Jr. Odds

Oddsmakers have made their stance clear: Jake Paul is the clear favorite heading into June 28, with betting lines signaling strong confidence in his trajectory, activity, and ring discipline.

Current moneyline odds (via BetMGM sportsbook):

• Jake Paul: -700 (favorite)

• Julio César Chávez Jr.: +450 (underdog)

Paul’s steep odds reflect both public faith and sharp backing—he’s younger, more focused, and has been consistently active in high-profile bouts. After recent wins and visible technical growth, many see him as the more reliable fighter in 2025.

Chávez Jr., on the other hand, enters as a heavy underdog; a position shaped by years of inconsistency and questions about motivation. But his professional pedigree and championship past still offer intrigue. For bettors who believe experience can rattle confidence, or that Paul’s chin has yet to be tested by a true veteran, Chávez Jr. is a longshot play with upset potential.

Other betting markets:

• Over/Under Rounds: 6.5

• Fight to Go the Distance: Yes +240 | No -300

Oddsmakers are leaning toward a finish inside the distance, likely from Paul’s side. The under on rounds and “No” on going the distance are both heavily favored, suggesting bookmakers expect Paul to end it early.

But for bettors who think Chávez Jr. can extend the fight, whether through resilience or clinch-heavy tactics, the “Yes” on going the distance offers real value, especially if you’re already backing Paul by decision.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Paul vs. Julio César Chávez Jr. Predictions

Our Prediction: Jake Paul via Unanimous Decision

This fight is a textbook case of modern momentum vs. legacy experience. Jake Paul has engineered a fast-track rise through boxing’s entertainment-driven tier, but behind the spectacle lies measurable improvement. His footwork is cleaner, his jab has become a legitimate weapon, and his conditioning now holds over the full distance. Against a fading veteran like Chávez Jr., that discipline may be enough to carry him through.

Chávez Jr., by contrast, is the son of royalty and once a WBC middleweight champion. But that peak came over a decade ago. Since then, he's been plagued by inconsistent performances, weight issues, and questions about his motivation. He has the tools—more pro fights than Paul has rounds—but recent history suggests those tools are gathering rust.

Why Jake Paul Can Win

Paul's path to victory is based on structure, not chaos. Having steadily evolved from viral entertainer to headline boxer, he’s not trying to out-brawl Chávez Jr.—he’s trying to outbox him. With a reach advantage and sharper timing than many give him credit for, Paul can keep the fight at range, work behind the jab, and pick off counters when Chávez lunges. His patience, conditioning, and defensive focus—especially in fights like the Anderson Silva bout—show he’s capable of executing a game plan.

This version of Paul isn’t the one that rushed to knock out Ben Askren; it’s the one who went the distance with Tommy Fury, battled through adversity against Nate Diaz, and broke down Ryan Bourland methodically. He also defeated Mike Tyson in a high-profile bout, proving he can handle the pressure of elite-level scrutiny and rise to the moment against a legendary name.

Why Julio César Chávez Jr. Can Win

On paper, this is the most experienced opponent Jake Paul has ever faced. Chávez Jr. has logged nearly 500 pro rounds, has fought in world title bouts, and knows how to survive tough moments. If he’s in shape and focused, a big “if”, his body attack and ring IQ could frustrate Paul, especially in close-range exchanges.

Chávez’s best chance lies in dragging Paul into deeper waters and forcing him to fight backwards. If he can close the distance, wear Paul down, and turn it into a rugged fight inside the pocket, he could make things uncomfortable, especially in the later rounds.

What the Experts Are Saying

As the boxing world gears up for Jake Paul’s toughest challenge to date, expert opinions are sharply divided. The fight has sparked interest from legends, analysts, and active fighters—some see Paul’s discipline and youth as decisive, while others believe experience will prevail.

Mike Perry (BKFC Fighter)

Mike Perry, known for his all-action style, supports Jake Paul and sees potential in what a win could mean:

“It’d be interesting if Jake can beat a guy with such experience… I think he might do it.”

Perry credits Paul for putting in serious work and believes this could mark a real turning point in his boxing career. He sees Paul as more than an entertainer now—someone who is steadily earning respect from fighters.

Manny Pacquiao (Hall of Famer)

Pacquiao is firmly on the traditionalist side of the debate:

“I don’t take Jake Paul seriously as a professional boxer… I don’t think beating Chávez Jr. legitimizes him.”

For Pacquiao, boxing is about legacy built through years of competition, not marketing. His view reflects how some boxing purists still see Paul as an outsider in a sport that demands deep roots.

Teofimo Lopez (Former World Champion)

Lopez appreciates the matchup for what it is, a necessary step for Paul’s evolution:

“It’s a great starting point to test the waters. Julio’s still active, and Jake’s taking on a real boxer. That’s a good sign.”

Lopez believes facing a fighter with credibility, even one past his prime, is what Paul needs to earn real boxing respect.

Jake Paul vs. Julio César Chávez Jr. Betting Tips

This is one of those rare matchups where the oddsmakers have it lopsided, but the narrative remains compelling. Jake Paul is a strong favorite, yet Chávez Jr.’s name and pedigree still present opportunities for bettors who see a live dog.

Best Bets to Consider

1. Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance

Jake Paul’s power has been evident in his recent fights, and Chávez Jr.’s conditioning has been questioned in the past. If either fighter pushes the pace early, a finish is very possible.

Recommended Bet: Fight Ends Inside the Distance

2. Jake Paul by Decision

Despite Paul’s knockout ability, he’s shown a more tactical side in recent bouts, managing distance and rounds with patience. If Chávez Jr. comes in focused and durable, Paul could take a measured, points-based approach.

Value Pick: Jake Paul via Unanimous Decision

3. Chávez Jr. as a Live Underdog

At +450, Chávez Jr. offers high-risk, high-reward potential. If he can use his experience, body work, and ring IQ to slow the tempo, an upset isn’t impossible.

Underdog Angle: Chávez Jr. by Decision or Late KO

4. Over/Under Rounds (6.5)

If sportsbooks list the over/under at 6.5 rounds, the over could be worth a look. Both fighters have shown they can go rounds, and early caution is likely from Paul.

Smart Angle: Over 6.5 Rounds

If you're looking to place a wager on Jake Paul vs. Julio César Chávez Jr., be sure to check the latest lines and props available through the best boxing betting sites!