Fight Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Odds (via BetMGM): Max Holloway -235 (favorite), Conor McGregor +190 (underdog)
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 is not just another UFC main event. It is one of the most fascinating rematches the UFC could have made in 2026.
McGregor and Holloway first fought in 2013, long before either man became a true global MMA superstar. McGregor won that fight by unanimous decision, but more than a decade later, the rematch looks completely different. Holloway is now one of the most proven five-round fighters in UFC history, while McGregor returns after a long layoff following the broken leg he suffered against Dustin Poirier in July 2021.
UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 takes place on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight is scheduled as the main event, with McGregor making his first UFC appearance in five years and Holloway entering as the more active, battle-tested fighter.
Sportsbook odds will continue to move as fight week develops, but Holloway has opened and remained the betting favorite in several early markets. MMA Fighting reported Holloway around -235 in the lead-up to UFC 329, reflecting the market’s concern over McGregor’s inactivity and Holloway’s more recent form.
That does not mean Holloway is an automatic bet at any price. The key is whether the number still offers value once the market settles.
At a high level:
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This is one of the rare UFC fights where name value and current form are pulling in opposite directions.
McGregor is one of the biggest stars in combat sports history. At his peak, he was a brilliant distance manager, counter-puncher and pressure manipulator. He did not just knock fighters out; he made them react, overextend and walk into his best weapons.
But this version of McGregor is not easy to evaluate. His last UFC fight came in July 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in his trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier. UFC’s own preview of his return notes that the injury created major doubts about whether he would return at all.
Holloway is easier to project. He has remained active, tested himself against elite competition and produced one of the most iconic moments of his career when he knocked out Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 to win the BMF belt.
That contrast is the foundation of this prediction.
McGregor has the higher early finishing danger.
Holloway has the more reliable five-round profile.
"I'm preparing for the most dangerous Conor McGregor possible."
— Max Holloway
Despite entering as the betting favorite, Holloway has made it clear he isn't overlooking McGregor's return. The former featherweight champion expects the best possible version of the Irish superstar and has repeatedly stressed the importance of respecting McGregor's power and experience.
"I'm in my prime here now. I'm going to put on a masterpiece."
— Conor McGregor
McGregor has shown no shortage of confidence throughout fight week. After nearly five years away from the Octagon, the former two-division champion insists he is healthier, stronger and ready to remind the MMA world why he became one of the biggest stars in UFC history.
"Conor McGregor has a narrow path to victory."
— Chael Sonnen
Sonnen believes McGregor's biggest opportunity comes in the early rounds, before Holloway's pace and cardio become major factors. It's a view shared by many analysts heading into UFC 329, with most expecting the longer the fight lasts, the more it favors Holloway.
Those comments perfectly capture the story of UFC 329. Holloway respects McGregor's ability to change a fight with one punch, McGregor remains convinced he can return to championship form, while many analysts believe the opening rounds will ultimately determine whether the former champion can complete one of the biggest comebacks in UFC history.
| Max Holloway | Welterweight Main Event | Conor McGregor |
|---|---|---|
| 27-8 | Professional Record | 22-6 |
| 34 | Age | 37 |
| 5'11" | Height | 5'9" |
| 170 lbs | Weight Class | 170 lbs |
| 69" | Reach | 74" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| Former Featherweight Champion & BMF Champion | Achievements | Former Featherweight & Lightweight Champion |
This is a classic striker-versus-striker matchup, but the paths to victory are very different. McGregor holds advantages in reach, knockout power and early finishing ability, while Holloway enters with superior activity, championship cardio and proven five-round durability. If the fight reaches the later rounds, the stylistic edge increasingly shifts toward Holloway.
Our official prediction is Max Holloway to defeat Conor McGregor, but there are multiple realistic paths this fight could take.
Probability: 60%
Confidence: 8/10
This is our primary prediction.
If the fight extends beyond the opening rounds, Holloway's relentless pace, elite cardio, high-volume striking and proven durability should gradually overwhelm McGregor. Over 25 minutes, Holloway simply has more recent experience against elite competition and has consistently shown he can maintain his output deep into championship fights.
The biggest question entering UFC 329 is how much of McGregor's former explosiveness remains after nearly five years away from the Octagon. If he cannot consistently win the early exchanges, Holloway's pressure should take control as the fight progresses.
Prediction: Max Holloway by unanimous decision.
Probability: 25%
Confidence: 6/10
This is McGregor's clearest path to victory.
Few fighters in UFC history have possessed his combination of precision, timing and knockout power in the opening rounds. Holloway has historically been difficult to finish, but McGregor's counter left hand remains one of the most dangerous weapons the sport has ever seen.
If McGregor returns looking physically sharp and explosive, he has the ability to catch Holloway before the Hawaiian establishes his trademark pace.
Prediction: Conor McGregor by KO/TKO in Round 1 or Round 2.
Probability: 15%
Confidence: 5/10
If McGregor survives the early rounds but begins to slow after a long layoff, Holloway could produce one of his trademark championship performances.
As Holloway's striking volume increases and McGregor's output declines, accumulated damage could eventually force a referee stoppage late in the fight. While Holloway is more commonly a decision winner, a late TKO becomes increasingly realistic if McGregor's conditioning fades significantly.
Prediction: Max Holloway by TKO in Round 4 or Round 5.
Prediction: Max Holloway to win
Best Bet: Max Holloway Moneyline
Value Bet: Max Holloway by Decision
High-Risk Bet: Conor McGregor by KO/TKO in Round 1 or Round 2
Overall Confidence: 8/10
Looking beyond the basic measurements provides a clearer picture of why sportsbooks have installed Holloway as the betting favorite.
One of the defining differences between these fighters is offensive pace.
Throughout his championship career, Holloway has consistently ranked among the UFC leaders in significant strikes landed per minute. His style is built around constant pressure, combination punching and overwhelming opponents over the course of a full fight rather than searching for one perfect knockout shot.
McGregor approaches striking very differently.
His offense is based on precision rather than volume. Few fighters in MMA history have possessed his ability to control distance, draw reactions and land clean left hands before opponents even recognize the opening.
This stylistic contrast is likely to define UFC 329.
If McGregor controls range, forces Holloway into predictable entries and lands the cleaner power shots, he can steal rounds—or even end the fight early.
If Holloway succeeds in turning the fight into a high-volume contest with extended exchanges, the advantage gradually shifts in his favor.
Durability has become one of the biggest talking points entering this rematch.
Holloway has built a reputation as one of the toughest fighters in UFC history. Even after competing against elite strikers across multiple championship fights, he has consistently demonstrated remarkable recovery, composure and willingness to continue exchanging under pressure.
McGregor's durability has never been questioned because of heart—it has been questioned because of inactivity and accumulated physical wear.
His broken leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021 changed the trajectory of his career and led to the longest competitive absence of his professional life.
Whether that injury has permanently affected his movement remains one of the biggest unknowns heading into UFC 329.
Few active fighters have spent as much time competing in championship fights as Max Holloway.
Over the past decade, he has consistently faced the toughest opposition available, building one of the strongest résumés in modern MMA.
His five-round trilogy with Dustin Poirier concluded at UFC 318, where Holloway once again demonstrated his ability to compete over five grueling rounds against one of the sport's most complete fighters. The bout highlighted the cardio, durability and composure that have become trademarks of his championship career.
Holloway also produced one of the most iconic moments in UFC history when he knocked out Justin Gaethje with one second remaining to capture the symbolic BMF title. That performance reaffirmed his elite striking volume, toughness and ability to perform under the brightest lights.
Following that victory, Holloway challenged reigning featherweight champion Ilia Topuria at UFC 308, once again proving his willingness to test himself against the very best fighters in the world rather than take easier matchups.
Most recently, Holloway moved back up to lightweight to face former UFC champion Charles Oliveira in a rematch at UFC 326, adding yet another elite challenge to an already remarkable career. Few active fighters have consistently accepted high-level matchups across multiple weight classes as often as Holloway.
Those fights tested every aspect of Holloway's game—from cardio and durability to adaptability, championship composure and the ability to consistently perform against the very best competition year after year.
McGregor hasn't fought since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in July 2021. A planned comeback against Michael Chandler never materialized, making UFC 329 his first appearance in nearly five years. That extended layoff remains the biggest question surrounding his return.
The biggest difference between these fighters isn't talent—it's recent activity. While McGregor has spent nearly five years away from the Octagon, Holloway has continued facing elite opponents such as Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. Those fights have kept him sharp, while also reinforcing one of his greatest strengths: championship-level cardio. If Holloway can avoid serious damage early, his pace and volume should become increasingly difficult for McGregor to match over five rounds.
Holloway has built a reputation as one of the toughest fighters in UFC history, consistently absorbing punishment while maintaining a relentless pace. McGregor still possesses fight-changing power, but questions remain about how his body will respond after such a lengthy layoff. Every minute Holloway survives makes his durability a more significant advantage.
Since their first meeting in 2013, Holloway has evolved into one of the UFC's most accomplished volume strikers and five-round fighters. Years of competing against champions and top contenders have refined his boxing, fight IQ and ability to make adjustments during championship fights. That continued evolution is a major reason why many analysts now view him as the deserved favorite heading into UFC 329.
Absolutely. Counting out Conor McGregor has rarely been a wise decision, and he still possesses several paths to victory.
McGregor's best opportunity comes in the opening rounds. His speed, precision and knockout power have ended countless fights before opponents had the chance to establish their rhythm. If he lands clean early, Holloway could find himself in real trouble.
Even after years away from competition, McGregor's understanding of distance and timing should not be underestimated.
Few fighters have been better at drawing opponents forward before landing clean left hands or intercepting combinations with perfectly timed counters.
If Holloway becomes reckless while applying pressure, McGregor has the accuracy to punish even the smallest mistakes.
Few fighters understand the pressure of the biggest stages better than McGregor. A former two-division champion and one of the UFC's biggest stars, he has repeatedly delivered under the brightest lights. While inactivity creates uncertainty, his experience and confidence ensure he cannot be overlooked.
UFC 329 is about much more than revisiting a fight from thirteen years ago. It brings together two fighters whose careers have taken completely different paths since they first shared the Octagon.
This matchup ultimately comes down to one question:
Can Conor McGregor still perform at the same elite level after nearly five years away from the Octagon?
McGregor still has the kind of power that can end a fight in an instant, and no one can completely rule him out as long as that left hand remains a threat. But over five rounds, Holloway simply has more ways to win. His pace, cardio and ability to keep a high output deep into fights have been tested time and time again against the best competition in the sport.
If McGregor can recapture the form that made him one of the UFC's biggest stars, he has every chance of pulling off an unforgettable comeback. But based on everything we've seen in recent years, Holloway's consistency, activity and championship experience make him the more reliable pick.
Official Prediction: Max Holloway by Unanimous Decision.
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Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2 takes place on Saturday, July 11, 2026, as the main event of UFC 329 in Las Vegas.
Max Holloway is the betting favorite, with most sportsbooks listing him around -235 ahead of UFC 329.
Conor McGregor defeated Max Holloway by unanimous decision when they first met in August 2013.
NYSafeBets predicts Max Holloway to defeat Conor McGregor by unanimous decision, with Holloway's activity and five-round cardio expected to be the difference.
