This week presents a rich mix of domestic power games and a high-profile international affair — offering multiple angles for sharp bettors to exploit.
Weekend highlights include the New York Jets on the road at the New England Patriots Thursday night, the international showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Miami Dolphins in Madrid, and the Green Bay Packers visiting the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon.
Below, we break down every matchup with best-bet picks. (Odds current as of Wednesday, November 12, 2025 — lines assumed and subject to change.)
Matchup | Date / Time (ET) | Best Bet |
Thu, Nov 13, 8:15 PM | Patriots −11.5 | |
Commanders @ Dolphins (Madrid) | Sun, Nov 16, 9:30 AM | Dolphins −2.5 |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Chargers −1.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Falcons −3.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Bills Over 50.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Steelers −5.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Packers −7.0 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Texans −7.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM | Vikings −2.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 4:05 PM | 49ers −1.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 4:05 PM | Rams −2.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 4:25 PM | Chiefs −2.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 4:25 PM | Ravens −8.5 | |
Sun, Nov 16, 8:20 PM | Eagles −1.5 | |
Mon, Nov 17, 8:15 PM | Cowboys −3.5 |
Thursday, November 13, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
Best Bet: | Patriots −11.5 — Home discipline and Jets’ uncertainty give value to the favourites. |
The Patriots are shaping into a playoff-calibre unit with steady defensive work and refined game management. At home on a short-week night, their edge is magnified. By contrast, the Jets are contending with a depleted receiving corps and inconsistent execution, which seldom goes well on Thursday primetime.
One major drag for New York: star receiver Garrett Wilson is expected to mss multiple weeks with a knee sprain. Without his big-play presence the Jets’ passing game loses a key weapon, forcing reliance on less-proven alternatives. Meanwhile New England remains relatively healthier and more cohesive in both phases. The 11.5-point line feels fair and offers value backing the home side to dominate field-position battles, tempo and mistakes.
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Sunday, November 16, 9:30 AM ET (NFL Network – Madrid, Spain)
Best Bet: | Dolphins −2.5 – Neutral-site travel and Commanders’ injury-crisis tip value toward Miami. |
Heading overseas to Madrid, the Dolphins are matched up against a Commanders unit in full disruption. Washington is without QB Jayden Daniels (left elbow) and WR Treylon Burks (finger), both of whom will not make the trip.
Meanwhile their defence, already among the worst in yards and points allowed, is entering this international game while coach Dan Quinn takes over play-calling amid a five-game skid.
On the flip side, the Dolphins bring a cleaner roster into the neutral-site challenge. Though no team loves the logistical quirks of an overseas game, Miami’s more stable offence and home-designation (despite being in Spain) give them the edge. With Washington’s receiving corps further weakened and their defensive line exhausted by frequent long drives, Miami’s tempo advantage and mis-match potential stand out. The −2.5 line feels like value given the situational edge and the visitor’s internal chaos.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | Chargers −3 — More consistent offence and Jaguars’ injury slide give value to LA. |
The Chargers arrive in Jacksonville with a solid three-game win streak and have hit mid-season form offensively. Their passing game remains one of the most efficient in the league, and they face a Jaguars secondary that ranks among the most generous in pass yards allowed — a combination that suggests the visitors have the edge.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are showing cracks. Rookie wide receiver Travis Hunter is out for the season after knee surgery, and top target Brian Thomas Jr. is sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. On the Chargers side, the offensive line has been tested — with Joe Alt undergoing season-ending ankle surgery and guard Mekhi Becton listed as questionable.
Despite those OL concerns, the Chargers’ passing & tempo edge still gives them implied value at a short road spread. The −3 appears fair and offers a lean toward LA.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Best Bet: | Falcons −3.5 – Better balance and home-field comfort favour Atlanta. |
This NFC South matchup has a familiar look: two teams built around the run, trying to stay relevant in the mid-season playoff picture. Atlanta’s advantage lies in stability; they control tempo well at home and their ground game helps sustain drives, even when the passing attack stalls. The Falcons’ defence has also tightened in red-zone situations, forcing opponents to settle for field goals.
Carolina, meanwhile, continues to search for offensive rhythm. They’ve struggled to finish possessions and their protection issues on the road have been costly. Unless the Panthers can generate takeaways, Atlanta’s measured pace and home comfort should carry them. The short line makes the Falcons the more reliable side.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | Over 50.5 – Two vertical offences and favourable conditions hint at points. |
We targeted the Over 50.5 in our Week 10 Predictions for the Bills, but their stalled offence kept that one short. Still, they created enough explosive opportunities to suggest a rebound at home, especially against a Buccaneers defence that has struggled to contain vertical passing. Both teams lean on aggressive play-calling and quick drives, setting up another total worth watching.
Conditions at Orchard Park look ideal for scoring, and both offences remain among the league’s top ten in red-zone efficiency. If Buffalo finds rhythm early, Tampa Bay has the firepower to answer. That dynamic makes the Over 50.5 a logical bounce-back spot for bettors who trust the Bills’ attack to finally convert chances.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET
Best Bet: | Steelers −4 – Defensive control and home-field edge support the favourite. |
This AFC North clash rarely lacks intensity. The Steelers continue to rely on their defence to dictate pace, and that unit has delivered, especially at Acrisure Stadium where crowd noise amplifies their pass rush. Pittsburgh’s offence isn’t flashy but has found ways to stay balanced — leaning on a steady ground game and efficient third-down execution.
Cincinnati’s fortunes often depend on rhythm; when their offence clicks, they can beat anyone, but consistency has eluded them. Against a physical Steelers front that thrives on disrupting timing, that volatility becomes risky. Expect a hard-fought, possession-driven game where Pittsburgh’s discipline and red-zone edge make the difference. Laying four points at home feels like a fair investment.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Best Bet: | Packers −7 – A strong value lean given the Giants’ upheaval and Green Bay’s edge in match-ups. |
The Giants are hosting a team fresh off a Monday night loss and reeling amid change. The Giants have lost four in a row and recently parted ways with head coach Brian Daboll, handing the reins to interim coach Mike Kafka.
On the injury front, rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart remains in concussion protocol and is expected to be unavailable, opening the door for veteran Jameis Winston (or possibly Russell Wilson) to start.
Meanwhile, Green Bay enters at ~5-3-1 and boasts one of the stronger defensive units in the league, giving them a structural advantage here.
From a match-up lens, the Packers’ strength in run defence and ability to control tempo will test the Giants, who have allowed more big plays and lack consistency on offence. The consensus opening line has Green Bay favoured by around 7 points with a total near 43-44 points.
With the Giants in transition, the Packers are likely to impose their game-script rather than react. For those placing bets in New York markets, backing Green Bay to cover seems like a solid value proposition given backgrounds, circumstances, and line movement.
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Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | Texans −7 – Superior efficiency and quarterback play justify the road favourite. |
The market has shifted strongly toward Houston — and it’s easy to see why. The Texans have been one of the league’s most balanced teams this season, pairing an efficient passing game with improved defensive discipline. C.J. Stroud continues to perform at a top-tier level, and Houston’s offensive tempo has overwhelmed less explosive teams. Against a Titans defence ranked near the bottom in yards per play allowed, the Texans should be able to dictate pace from the start.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is deep in rebuild territory. Their offence has struggled to find rhythm, averaging among the fewest points per game in the conference, and protection issues have been glaring. Unless they can force turnovers, it’s difficult to see them keeping this within a touchdown. Houston’s current form and depth make the −7 line appear justified, and possibly short if their offence clicks early.
Sunday, November 16, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)
Best Bet: | Vikings −2.5 – Home poise and steadier execution favour Minnesota. |
The NFC North rivals meet with both teams trying to stay in the Wild Card race, but the Vikings’ home consistency makes the difference here. Minnesota’s offence has leaned on balance — an improved ground game supported by play-action — and that blend typically travels well indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium. Their defence, while not elite, has tightened in third-down situations and created timely takeaways.
Chicago continues to flash potential but remains erratic week to week. The Bears’ passing attack has struggled to find rhythm on the road, and their defence has given up explosive plays late in halves. In what’s likely to be a close, possession-driven contest, Minnesota’s superior quarterback play and crowd-boosted energy give them the advantage. Laying a small 2.5 points at home feels like a logical move.
Sunday, November 16, 4:05 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | 49ers −5 – Depth and structure make San Francisco the more reliable side. |
This NFC West matchup leans heavily toward the better-coached, more complete roster. The 49ers’ system remains one of the league’s most efficient: crisp in timing, physical at the line, and adaptable regardless of venue. Their run-game consistency and ability to generate explosive plays after the catch should test an Arizona defence that has struggled with open-field tackling.
The Cardinals’ young core continues to show fight but lacks finishing power. Offensive protection and red-zone efficiency remain issues, and playing from behind against a team like San Francisco rarely ends well. Unless they find turnovers early, Arizona will likely struggle to keep up once the 49ers’ rhythm takes hold. The road favourite at −5 feels like the right side given the gulf in talent and execution.
Sunday, November 16, 4:05 PM ET (FOX)
Best Bet: | Rams −2.5 – Home comfort and sharper offensive rhythm point toward Los Angeles. |
The Rams have quietly found their stride over the past month, rediscovering balance on offence and cohesion in the secondary. At home in SoFi Stadium, they’ve averaged over 27 points per game since mid-October and are protecting the quarterback more effectively. That rhythm, combined with the familiarity of facing a divisional opponent, gives them an edge in a matchup that often comes down to execution in key moments.
Seattle remains dangerous but inconsistent. Their offensive line has struggled to handle interior pressure, and their defence has bent late in games — an issue that could prove costly against a Rams team that thrives on tempo and play-action. With Los Angeles playing cleaner football and owning a strong home-field advantage in this rivalry, laying 2.5 points feels justified.
Sunday, November 16, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | Under 45 – Defensive growth and altitude factor make the under appealing. |
Once a reliable shootout, this AFC West clash has evolved into a more tactical battle. The Chiefs still boast offensive firepower, but their defence has quietly become one of the league’s most efficient units — particularly in red-zone and third-down situations. Combined with Denver’s steady defensive resurgence, this game profiles as more grind than fireworks.
Playing in altitude also tends to sap offensive rhythm, especially for visiting teams. Denver’s offence has been conservative under Sean Payton, relying on methodical drives and field position rather than aggression. If both sides trade extended possessions and settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, the total in the mid-40s feels inflated. Expect Kansas City to win with control, not chaos — and the under to cash.
Sunday, November 16, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)
Best Bet: | Ravens −8.5 – Baltimore’s control and Cleveland’s offensive issues point to a cover. |
The Ravens enter Week 11 as one of the most balanced teams in football, thriving behind an elite defence and an offence that can shift seamlessly between power and tempo. Lamar Jackson has been in full command of the system, and Baltimore’s ability to dictate pace — particularly on the ground — makes them a nightmare matchup for inconsistent opponents.
Cleveland continues to play tough defensively but remains limited offensively. Injuries at quarterback and along the offensive line have forced a conservative approach, and that’s unlikely to work against a Baltimore defence ranked near the top in sacks and takeaways. Unless the Browns find early turnovers or special teams magic, the Ravens’ physical edge should tell over four quarters. Laying 8.5 feels aggressive but warranted given the current gap between these rosters.
Sunday, November 16, 8:20 PM ET (NBC)
Best Bet: | Eagles −1.5 – Home edge and matchup balance give Philadelphia a slight but meaningful advantage. |
This primetime clash has the makings of one of Week 11’s best. Both the Eagles and Lions sit atop their divisions, and each team mirrors the other in physicality and offensive line strength. The difference, however, may be at quarterback and in-game adaptability. Philadelphia has consistently handled tight contests at home, leaning on Jalen Hurts’ dual-threat poise and a defensive front that thrives under the lights at Lincoln Financial Field.
Detroit’s offence can move the ball, but on the road against an Eagles unit that ranks near the top in pressure rate, protection could become an issue. The Lions’ secondary has also been leaky in recent weeks, a problem when facing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in stride. Expect a physical, one-score contest that ultimately tilts toward Philadelphia’s superior closing execution.
Monday, November 17, 8:15 PM ET (ESPN)
Best Bet: | Cowboys −3.5 – Dallas’ defensive ceiling and offensive balance make them the stronger side. |
Week 11 wraps up under the Vegas lights with a matchup of two teams moving in opposite directions. The Cowboys have rediscovered rhythm on both sides of the ball, averaging over 30 points per game in their last three wins while their defence continues to thrive off pressure and takeaways. Micah Parsons and company should have opportunities to disrupt a Raiders offensive line that’s struggled to protect its quarterback in recent weeks.
Las Vegas remains competitive but erratic. Their offence leans heavily on big plays and often stalls on long drives — a poor recipe against Dallas’ speed and discipline. Unless the Raiders can establish the run early, they’ll likely spend much of the game chasing the tempo. Given the Cowboys’ superior efficiency and recent form, laying a modest 3.5 on the road feels justified.
Week 11 has highlighted just how volatile the midseason market can be. Lines are efficient, surprises are fewer, and the smallest details are shaping outcomes. The edge now lies less in raw stats and more in understanding context: rest, travel, and matchup rhythm.
Bettors are finding success by reacting faster than the market. Injuries, weather updates, and late-week line shifts are creating short windows of value that disappear quickly. Monitoring odds movement across the best NFL betting sites helps identify which teams sharp money is backing before kickoff.
As November football turns cold and physical, focus on teams that can win ugly — the ones that control tempo, protect the quarterback, and handle situational pressure. Those traits, more than flashy scorelines, are what separate steady profit from heartbreak tickets down the stretch.
