UFC 333 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, Yan vs. Dvalishvili

UFC 333 arrives in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24, 2026, with two championship fights, an undefeated featherweight challenger and one of the most compelling bantamweight rivalries in MMA. Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against Movsar Evloev in the main event, while Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet for a third time with the bantamweight championship at stake.

The betting market sees Volkanovski vs. Evloev as virtually even. Yan, meanwhile, enters as the favorite against Dvalishvili. But which fighters offer the strongest betting opportunities, and where might the odds be overlooking an important matchup advantage?

Our UFC 333 predictions examine the entire 14-fight card, with detailed breakdowns of both title fights, potential upsets, method-of-victory angles and the prices at which our selections become attractive.

UFC 333 Predictions: Our Best Picks

Our headline pick: Alexander Volkanovski to defeat Movsar Evloev, preferably at even money or better.

Our preferred five-round betting angle: Yan vs. Dvalishvili to go over 4.5 rounds, provided the price is reasonable.

Our underdog watch: Losene Keita against Aaron Pico.

These are independent pre-fight projections, not guaranteed outcomes. Confidence describes our assessment of the matchup, not a measured probability of winning.

UFC 333 Date, Start Time and How to Watch

New York viewers should note the unusual afternoon start time. The main card begins at 2 p.m. Eastern, significantly earlier than the traditional evening schedule for major UFC events.

The full lineup and event details are available on the official UFC 333 event page.

UFC 333 Betting Odds: Full Fight Card

The following are reference moneyline prices reported by CBS Sports on October 20, 2026. They are not live BetMGM or FanDuel quotes and may differ from the odds available when you place a wager.

Odds snapshot: October 20, 2026. Source: CBS Sports, using DraftKings prices. Always verify the current market before betting.

For New York bettors comparing available lines, our FanDuel Sportsbook NY guide and BetMGM Sportsbook NY reviewexplain the platforms and their betting options.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev Prediction

Our pick: Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision

The UFC 333 main event is an unusually difficult championship matchup to price.

Volkanovski brings the experience of a two-time featherweight champion, a sophisticated striking game and a proven ability to make adjustments over five rounds. Evloev enters undefeated at 20-0, offering relentless wrestling, positional control and the kind of disciplined approach that can make even elite opponents uncomfortable.

The obvious question is whether Evloev can consistently get Volkanovski to the ground.

The more important question is what happens after the first successful takedown.

The Wrestling Battle Could Decide the Fight

Evloev's greatest advantage is his ability to build sustained sequences. He does not necessarily need one spectacular takedown. He can attack along the fence, force defensive reactions, change levels and continue wrestling until he establishes control.

Against a lesser opponent, that pressure can become overwhelming.

Volkanovski, however, has the footwork, balance and tactical awareness to make those exchanges more difficult.

His objective should not simply be to stop every takedown. He needs to avoid prolonged defensive wrestling, break contact efficiently and return the fight to the center of the Octagon.

If Volkanovski repeatedly spends the final two minutes of rounds defending against the cage, Evloev could win rounds without inflicting substantial damage.

That is the challenger's clearest route to the title.

Volkanovski's Advantage on the Feet

In open space, Volkanovski offers the more varied striking approach.

He can change rhythm, attack the legs, draw reactions with feints and score while moving laterally. His ability to make opponents reset is particularly important against a fighter whose offense depends on closing distance.

Rather than chasing a knockout, Volkanovski should focus on disrupting Evloev's entries.

Low kicks, quick combinations and immediate exits can force Evloev to initiate wrestling from less favorable positions.

The danger is overcommitting. An extended combination that leaves Volkanovski squared up could create exactly the takedown opportunity Evloev needs. 

There is also a reason to examine the risks rather than relying entirely on Volkanovski's championship pedigree. His UFC 298 matchup with Ilia Topuria remains an important part of his recent career history. While Evloev's wrestling-heavy approach is very different from Topuria's striking, that earlier matchup adds context when evaluating Volkanovski's defensive decisions against elite opposition.

The Championship-Round Question

Five-round experience matters here, but it should not be mistaken for an automatic advantage.

Evloev's pace and wrestling could become more effective if Volkanovski spends the early rounds repeatedly defending takedowns.

Conversely, if the champion keeps the exchanges short and avoids prolonged control, Evloev may find himself entering the fourth round needing to take greater risks.

That is where Volkanovski's adaptability could become decisive.

Volkanovski vs. Evloev Betting Prediction

Our projection is a close fight in which Volkanovski wins enough of the striking exchanges and prevents Evloev from accumulating sustained control.

We expect competitive rounds rather than a dominant championship performance.

Official NYSafeBets pick: Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision.

Moneyline value threshold: Volkanovski at +100 or better.

Alternative angle: Fight to go the distance, if the available price offers reasonable value.

Biggest risk: Evloev's chain wrestling produces extended control time and swings three or more rounds in his favor.

A Volkanovski victory is our preferred outcome, but this is not a fight in which we would recommend accepting a substantially worse price simply to back the champion.

Volkanovski's experience in five-round fights remains central to this matchup. His UFC 325 rematch with Diego Lopes provides a useful reference point for assessing his pacing, defensive adjustments and ability to manage dangerous opponents over championship distance. Evloev presents a different challenge, particularly through his wrestling and positional control.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 Prediction

Our pick: Petr Yan by unanimous decision

The bantamweight championship trilogy is compelling because the two fighters already understand each other's strengths.

Dvalishvili won their first meeting in 2023 by applying relentless wrestling pressure. Yan responded in their rematch by delivering a cleaner and more effective performance to regain the championship.

The most relevant starting point for this matchup is Yan and Dvalishvili's UFC 323 rematch. Their previous meetings provide direct evidence of how Yan's technical boxing matches up against Dvalishvili's relentless pace, chain wrestling and cage pressure. Those tactical patterns matter more than either fighter's reputation when evaluating a third meeting.

Now they meet with the rivalry tied at one victory apiece.

The key is not whether Dvalishvili can attempt takedowns. He almost certainly will.

The question is whether those attempts produce enough control to offset Yan's striking.

Why Yan's Defensive Wrestling Matters

Dvalishvili's pressure works best when opponents become preoccupied with defending.

Even unsuccessful takedown attempts can create opportunities if they force a fighter to retreat, abandon combinations or spend extended periods against the fence.

Yan needs to resist that pattern.

His success depends on controlling the center, defending early entries and punishing Dvalishvili during the transitions back to striking.

A clean separation after a failed takedown is valuable. A clean separation followed by an accurate counter is even more valuable.

Can Merab Recreate His First Victory?

Absolutely.

Dvalishvili remains dangerous because his style can overwhelm opponents through volume and persistence.

He does not require spectacular striking to win rounds. He needs to force enough defensive exchanges that his opponent cannot establish a consistent offensive rhythm.

If Yan starts slowly, Dvalishvili could build an early lead and make the final rounds increasingly difficult.

The opening ten minutes will therefore be critical. 

Dvalishvili's sustained pressure has also been a defining factor in his rivalry with Sean O'Malley. 

The Five-Round Betting Angle

This matchup offers a potentially interesting rounds market.

Both fighters have the tools to compete over a full championship distance. Dvalishvili generally favors pressure and sustained work, while Yan's technical striking can support a measured, round-winning approach.

A decision is our most likely outcome.

However, the market already appears to recognize that possibility. A heavily juiced over 4.5 rounds is not necessarily attractive merely because the matchup looks likely to last.

Official NYSafeBets pick: Petr Yan by unanimous decision.

Preferred betting angle: Over 4.5 rounds, but only at a price that justifies the risk.

Moneyline value threshold: Yan at -150 or better.

Biggest risk: Dvalishvili forces a higher wrestling tempo than Yan can comfortably manage.

At the October 20 reference price of -162, we slightly prefer exploring the rounds market rather than automatically taking Yan's moneyline.

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov Prediction

Our pick: Lone'er Kavanagh by decision

Kavanagh's development makes him one of the more intriguing fighters on the card. His recent performances against established opposition suggest that he can operate effectively in difficult striking exchanges.

Temirov presents a dangerous challenge, particularly if he can turn the fight into a high-paced contest with frequent exchanges.

Kavanagh's path is built around composure. He should aim to maintain range, use varied entries and avoid prolonged exchanges where Temirov can counter with power.

We lean toward Kavanagh's technical approach over three rounds, although the near-even market reflects the uncertainty.

Prediction: Kavanagh by decision.

Betting approach: Small exposure only; avoid treating either fighter as a strong favorite.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction

Our pick: Alexander Volkov by decision

Volkov's height, reach and long-range striking provide a clear tactical route against Kuniev.

The veteran heavyweight is at his best when he can establish distance with straight punches and kicks while forcing opponents to initiate from too far away.

Kuniev's opportunity is to close that distance, disrupt Volkov's rhythm and create grappling exchanges.

The longer Volkov remains upright and in open space, the stronger his position becomes.

Heavyweight fights carry considerable finishing volatility, but our projection favors Volkov's technical control rather than an early knockout.

Prediction: Volkov by decision.

Moneyline value threshold: Volkov at -125 or better.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita Prediction

Our pick: Losene Keita by KO/TKO

This may be the most explosive matchup on the main card.

Pico combines dangerous boxing with high-level wrestling. When he mixes those skills effectively, he can create difficult choices for opponents.

But his willingness to exchange can also expose him to counters.

Keita's striking ability makes that particularly dangerous.

The decisive variable is whether Pico fights with tactical discipline.

If he uses his wrestling to dictate the exchanges and avoids extended boxing sequences, he can win.

If he becomes drawn into a prolonged striking battle, we favor Keita's ability to capitalize on openings.

Prediction: Losene Keita by KO/TKO.

Betting approach: Keita moneyline at plus money would be particularly interesting; at a negative price, the margin becomes less attractive.

Biggest risk: Pico controls the fight through wrestling and neutralizes Keita's offense.

This is an upset-oriented selection, not a high-confidence play.

UFC 333 Preliminary Card Predictions

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes

Pick: Azamat Murzakanov to win

Murzakanov's compact offense and power create serious problems for opponents who struggle with pressure.

Reyes remains dangerous at range, especially when he can use his movement to create straight-line striking opportunities.

We favor Murzakanov's ability to close distance and land the more consequential shots.

However, the -225 reference price offers limited room for error.

Betting verdict: Favor Murzakanov, but avoid forcing a bet at an expensive moneyline.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Pick: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev to win

Yakhyaev enters as a substantial favorite, indicating strong market confidence.

Krylov's experience and willingness to engage in unpredictable exchanges create some upset potential, but the matchup appears to favor Yakhyaev's athleticism and ability to impose his preferred pace.

The issue is price rather than the predicted winner.

At approximately -520, the favorite must win very frequently just to justify the wager.

Betting verdict: Yakhyaev is our pick, but the moneyline is a pass at the reference price.

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston

Pick: Abus Magomedov to win

Magomedov's experience against high-level UFC competition gives him a credible advantage.

Rowston, however, arrives with momentum and could make this uncomfortable if he pushes a sustained pace.

Magomedov needs to control the early exchanges and avoid giving Rowston the kind of open, high-output fight that could shift momentum.

Betting verdict: Slight lean toward Magomedov. Low confidence.

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev

Pick: Grant Dawson by decision

This matchup could become a prolonged positional battle.

Both fighters are comfortable wrestling, which makes clean striking exchanges and transitional control especially important.

Dawson's broader UFC experience gives him a narrow advantage in our assessment, but Aliev's undefeated record and disciplined grappling make him a legitimate threat.

Betting verdict: Dawson by decision, with limited confidence. A pass is preferable to accepting a poor price.

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun

Pick: Abubakar Vagaev to win

Malkoun's grappling creates a path to victory if he can establish top position and sustain control.

Vagaev's opportunity is to prevent those extended exchanges and make Malkoun work for every entry.

We give Vagaev the edge but see insufficient separation to justify aggressive staking.

Betting verdict: Vagaev, low confidence.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov

Pick: Asaf Chopurov to win

Chopurov is among the card's heaviest favorites.

His projected advantage is meaningful, but the betting price creates a separate problem.

At -550, a successful $100 wager returns only about $18.18 in profit.

Even a convincing stylistic edge does not automatically make that worthwhile.

Betting verdict: Chopurov to win; no moneyline recommendation at the reference price.

Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos

Pick: Daniel Santos to win

Santos' willingness to pressure and exchange should create opportunities if he can prevent Oki from settling into a controlled striking rhythm.

Oki's best chance is to manage distance and avoid being forced into extended exchanges.

We lean toward Santos in a competitive fight.

Betting verdict: Santos, low confidence.

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon

Pick: Kody Steele to win

Steele enters as the betting favorite, but this is not a matchup we would prioritize without stronger evidence of a substantial stylistic advantage.

The key questions are who establishes the pace and whether either fighter can consistently win the grappling transitions.

Betting verdict: Steele to win; no recommended wager at the current reference price.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari

Pick: Iasmin Lucindo to win

Lucindo's experience against UFC-level opposition provides a reasonable foundation for the favorite's position.

Caliari must find a way to disrupt the rhythm and prevent Lucindo from consistently imposing her preferred exchanges.

We favor Lucindo but do not see an attractive straight moneyline at -390.

Betting verdict: Lucindo to win; pass on the expensive moneyline.

Best UFC 333 Bets: Where We See Value

Picking the winner and identifying a worthwhile bet are different exercises.

A fighter can be the most likely winner and still offer poor value at the available odds.

For UFC 333, we prefer a selective approach.

These thresholds are editorial judgments, not outputs from a calibrated probability model. A price meeting the threshold does not guarantee positive expected value.

Our Best Bet: Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline at Even Money

We slightly favor Volkanovski because of his ability to adapt over five rounds and his potential to win clean striking exchanges.

Evloev's wrestling creates a substantial threat, which is why we would not chase a significantly negative price.

At even money or better, the champion becomes our preferred main-event wager.

Best Alternative: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Over 4.5 Rounds

Both fighters have credible paths to winning rounds without needing a finish.

We expect a tactical, high-intensity contest in which wrestling defense, control and accumulated striking matter more than one isolated exchange.

The main concern is the price. An over 4.5 rounds line around -340, for example, requires a very high success rate to break even.

We like the fight to last but would pass rather than accept a heavily overpriced total.

Best Upset Opportunity: Losene Keita

Keita offers an intriguing combination of striking ability and finishing potential against a dangerous but sometimes aggressive opponent.

Pico's wrestling remains the biggest obstacle.

At plus money, Keita becomes a more interesting speculative selection. At a worse price, the risk is harder to justify.

Should You Bet on a UFC 333 Parlay?

A tempting strategy is to combine several favorites from the preliminary card.

Yakhyaev, Chopurov and Lucindo are all heavily favored in the reference market.

But combining favorites does not eliminate risk. Every additional leg introduces another way for the wager to lose.

A three-leg parlay also makes it harder to evaluate whether the combined payout properly compensates for the uncertainty.

For this event, we prefer carefully selected singles over a large parlay.

That is especially true for a card with several closely matched main-card fights.

Three Factors That Could Change Our UFC 333 Predictions

1. The Official Weigh-Ins

A difficult weight cut can affect performance, particularly in fights expected to reach the later rounds.

Our selections should be reassessed after Friday's weigh-ins if a fighter misses weight or appears physically compromised.

2. Late Line Movement

A shift from even money to a substantial favorite can turn an attractive selection into a pass.

Our picks do not imply that the same wager remains worthwhile at every price.

3. Fight-Day Changes

Late replacements, injuries and changes to the running order can materially affect a prediction.

Check the confirmed lineup and the market before placing any wager.

Final UFC 333 Prediction: Volkanovski Retains, Yan Wins the Trilogy

UFC 333 presents two championship fights with contrasting tactical challenges.

Volkanovski must solve Evloev's persistent wrestling while maintaining enough striking volume to win rounds. Yan must once again prevent Dvalishvili's relentless pressure from controlling the fight.

Our projections favor the two champions, but neither matchup warrants overconfidence.

NYSafeBets final main-event prediction: Alexander Volkanovski defeats Movsar Evloev by unanimous decision.

NYSafeBets co-main event prediction: Petr Yan defeats Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision.

For the rest of the card, Volkov's technical heavyweight approach and Keita's striking upside provide two additional matchups worth following.

The most important betting decision is not simply choosing the correct fighter. It is deciding whether the available odds offer sufficient compensation for the risk.

That is the distinction between a prediction and a bet worth placing.

Published October 21, 2026. Predictions are editorial opinions made before the event. Odds are a dated reference snapshot and may change. NYSafeBets may earn commissions through qualifying affiliate links. Betting is restricted to adults aged 21 and older in New York. Gambling problem? Call 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY to 467369.